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Predictions: 24th - 30th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by tr+h, Jun 15, 2010.

  1. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Temps in Melbourne have not cracked 9 all day and at this late hour, I think we can predict today will record the coldest high temperature in Melbourne in years.
     
  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    hopefully an upgrade this arvo we are surely due!!
     
  3. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    there is no question about it this system will surely produce snow
    the only thing is how much will fall.
    ive noticed there is some moisture developing over Bendigo and is almost reaching the mountains i reckon 2-5cm from this
    then at midnight the main front will go through possibly 15-30cm is possible IMO.
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    And perhaps ever under a NW airstream-albeit with the loop around
     
    #454 The Plowking, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Afternoon GFS does not think so. IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    #455 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    GFS aye?
    hmmm .....
    I guess we'll see how the blob goes.
     
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    MLAPS update from a few hours ago shows good moisture for the eastern half of the state, but under 5mm in precip for any of the Alps.

    The stuff we are seeing on the radar over Adelaide doesn't look like it will make it/ have any impact on the resorts in terms of moisture.

    Not until overnight Wednesday, when the feed turns SW / S'ly, will we see any good falls IMO
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    That's my feeling too (although did you mean western part of the state?). Buller / Baw Baw might get 10 cm out of it IMO.
    LAPS & GFS both show the moisture sliding south - and we're kind of seeing that on the radar with all rain in a band just south of Melbourne, tracking SE.
     
    #458 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  9. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Have a look at the sat and the direction it's heading, I think it could be very good totals.
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Little to none of Adelaide's weather is going to hit the Alps. Unlike other systems, where Adelaide is a good indiaction, this one is a little different, as the 1023hPa high is basically stopping any moisture from swinging down from the NW / or W.

    If that high, Hx1023, was a mear 500km north, IMO, we would be seeing substantial falls, season starter, without a doubt.

    [​IMG]

    Real time synoptic Obs.
     
    #460 Stratus, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    IMO looks like it's going SE.

    Clickity
     
    #461 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Sorry Western yes.

    DHS - Direction is good, but pressure is high. Will all be dried up by the time it gets into eastern VIC. IMO.
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    To me its thickening up near NE Victoria...and slowly making its way across.

    Sorry I don't think the models are right...they haven't been in this event at all with regard to rainfall projection.
     
    #463 Donza, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Donza - can you explain in laymen's terms why you think it will head more east than the sat loop predicts. Looking at it with no real weather experience as such I see what CC says - heading SE too fast. I desperately want to see it not do this so show me how.
     
    #464 luvthabumps, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Well basically LTB i'm seeing a bit more rotation in the cloud than slip sliding away.
    I see the rotation going NE - yet I see the intial edge heading SE.
    the models progged the dominant low to be near Tasmania.(you can see its rotation) Yet i'll contend the dominant weather system, what Sandy refer to as a trough yesterday is moving slowly NE from SA.
    You can see this in the wind direction. This rotation.
    you can also see on the outer edge a thickening up of the cloud near whyalla, this is in the real cold stream of the change.
    another point. I've looked back at all the models and forecasts I've seen over the last few days and none of them mentioned such a vigiorous aggresive system for Adelaide. Adeialde has been getting smashed. IMO that will slowly work its way east. Slowly is grand.
    Ie winds at Adelaide. SW. Victor NW Mt Gambier North.
    thats a rotation.
     
  16. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    ive noticed that as well
     
  17. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    [​IMG] makes sense - hope you're right.
     
    #467 luvthabumps, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    BOM have it sliding too. (IMO)

    [​IMG]
     
    #468 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    what would they know......
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Vic BOM forecast:

    Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
    Cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 25 to 35 km/h, reaching 45 km/h at times.

    Forecast for Wednesday
    Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 30 to 45 km/h becoming northwesterly 20 to 35 km/h during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around minus 3 with daytime temperatures reaching around 1.

    Forecast for Thursday
    Cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Winds northwesterly averaging 15 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around minus 3 with daytime temperatures reaching around 2
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Looks to me more like stalling and dissapating as it tracks (slowly) east.
    Big Forecast Pressure jump between am and pm Weds. Thats not so good.
     
    #471 The Plowking, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. Julia Gillard

    Julia Gillard First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I am sure I said Fizzer in here and not in the Epic BBQ thread...

    Fizzer IMO - Going to slide down and all the precip will be great for Western Victoria but won't make it to alps.

    5cms for Buller IMO

    Damn cold still though
     
  23. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Yet BOM forecast Buller could get snow everyday for the next week...hmmm? I still like the next 24 hours.

    Victoria > Forecasts > Mount Buller
    Mount Buller
    Issued at 4:32 pm EST on Tuesday 29 June 2010
    for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 6 July 2010.
    Warning Summary at issue time
    Nil.

    Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
    Cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds northerly averaging 40 to 45 km/h.

    Forecast for Wednesday
    Cloudy. A few snow showers. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 35 to 50 km/h becoming northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h around midday.

    Precis: Snow. Windy.Min-4Max-1
    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Forecast for Thursday
    Cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly averaging up to 30 km/h.

    Precis: Chance of snow.Min-3Max1
    Forecast for Friday
    Partly cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 10 to 20 km/h tending southwesterly and light around midday.

    Precis: Chance of snow.Min-4Max2
    Forecast for Saturday
    Partly cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds south to southwesterly averaging 20 to 30 km/h.

    Precis: Chance of snow.Min-5Max3
    Forecast for Sunday
    Partly cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds south to southwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening.

    Precis: Chance of snow.Min-5Max3
    Forecast for Monday
    Cloud increasing. Winds northeasterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h tending northerly 30 to 35 km/h during the evening.

    Precis: Cloud increasing.Min-4Max3
    Forecast for Tuesday
    Cloudy. Rain developing and falling as snow during the evening. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 40 to 50 km/h tending west to northwesterly during the evening.

    Precis: Rain then snow later. Windy.Min-4Max3
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 5:30 am EST Wednesday.

     
  24. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I think the two important things to note in the BOM forecast there are, "The chance of..." and "...snow showers..."
     
    #474 kimberlee81, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  25. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    i have been looking at the satellite images and have notice moisture developing behind the front
    so a little more snow than expected might fall.
    and this front will not be a fizzer IMO it will slide past over the Vic mountains but it wont hit the NSW mountains
     
  26. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    True but it's only on a 'cold day in hell' when they go out on a limb and commit to much more!
     
  27. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    high is weakening!!!!!!
    the front is sure to hit the Vic mountains IMO
     
  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Proof?
     
    #478 Stratus, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    what evidence do you have to support that the high is weakening?????? Moisture still looks to be sliding south to me [​IMG]
     
    #479 mad4snow, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    on ten news the high was weaker and i had a look at the satellite and the low is pushing more eastward
     
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    yes i agree bilza.gfs shows a moisture upgrade as well moving east into vic on the latest 24 hour chart for tommoz [​IMG]
    hope it comes off??
     
    #481 doogasnow, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Watching the ABC news it does look like the high breaks up and the front comes through. The question will be how much moisture is there????

    IMO 10-15cm from now till thursday morning is not out of the question for all of the resorts.
     
  33. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Hmm, not sure where BOM is pulling this out of, but they upgraded their predictions, now saying 1-5 mm for tonight and 6-10 mm for tomorrow for Perisher which would be very nice but looking at the sat picture, it looks like almost all the moisture is just sliding right under the mountains with pretty much nothing on a collision course. The entire low tracking east could make that happen if not for the steadily strengthening high that looks as if it will counteract any movement eastwards. Looking forward to seeing the result of this wildcard.
     
  34. iGlenn

    iGlenn Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Watching the sat pic evolve looks promising. I don't think its now a question of whether it will hit the alps, but how much moisture is left in the system.
     
  35. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    next 2 hours snow will start falling and will continue overnight IMO
    possible 10 - 25cm
     
  36. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I think you are dreaming. Nevertheless I hope your dream comes true.
     
    #486 themaninblack, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    your right on it bilza!! all taking shape through central vic now.
    imo its game on!!
     
  38. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    In 2004 we got repeated 30cm falls on BOM forecasts of Scattered Snow Showers.
     
    #488 CarveMan, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  39. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I think these are not"predictions"
    After a few years of micro-chart watching and looking at sat pics and radar images, IMO, not much moisture with this sytem will extend across the Melbourne -Albury Line
    The low pressure system circulation that brings good snow-fall usually always pushes a rainband through the Wagga Wangaratta axis.
    This stuff is way too far down south.
    The only hope as I see it is Claude's..that is that the low will sit around long enough to enable the moisture band to come around twice, by which time it may have migrated further North.
     
    #489 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    S-P I still don't think we are seeing the picture 100%.
    Looking at a syp the "low" was indicated to be near Tasmania and it is...yet is is absolutely nothing compared to that trough line that interacted with the coldies over SA today in intensity.
    Its a real tight wind.- i'd say the eye is pretty much around Warrnambool at mo..(wind went North- Calm....and I think south soon)..and looking at the uppers you can kinda see why..
    I'm not entirely sure what its going to do...if the wee cutoff falls in on itself, well it won't have much spunk. But if it keeps spinning and rolling East it will keep sucking moisture into its core.
    me thinks people are getting the moisture sliding in front of a front confused with a tightly spun low..
    its got so much up top I just think thats why adelaide was hammered...
     
  41. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    this band of moisture reaches up to the border of NSW and its intensifying
     
    #491 Bilza_Skis, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    If not intensifying very slowly!! [​IMG]
     
    #492 Alfred14, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  43. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    just had a look at the BOM's satellite images and it looks like the front is moving eastward for the Vic resorts
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Animated Water Vapour image
    The latest satellite runs shows the moisture travelling little more easterly - I expect it to swipe across Buller and Baw Baw but I still don't see huge quantities of snow out of this. Still sticking to a 10 cm call on this (say tomorrow), IMO for Buller.
     
    #494 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  45. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    #495 Stratus, Jun 29, 2010
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  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    afaict.
    I think they have finally got it right.
    thats been happening for the last 12 hours....even longer.
    the 1011 high near SA has the most upper love. I think thats where the strongest cold pool is, yet at sealevel the pressure is higher..hence why its cooking over Adelaide..MSLP looks benign ..upper charts look great...it has -30's in it at 500
    .I expect that to drift slowly NE over the next 72 hours
    then the 1004 will split and go E/SE..might even turn into a Tasman low and inject a SE airstream onto the coast...mixed with that wandering trough and cold pool could result in snow on the CT friday night...thats another thread though
     
  47. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    So Donza, through all your observations, how much new snow you calling for Perisher by Friday?
     
  48. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    the rain band is moving more easterly, i can see it reaching falls creek if it continues
    and the rain band seems to be picking up moisture behind itself
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    smitty - who knows...10...20....30?
    I really have no idea...
    if i was to throw a dart...i'd say 22cm
    but...its really really interesting weather...its dynamic
    what happened in SA really surprised me...coldie T-storms require alot of cooking
    i also think some places not in the snowys will see snow
    and -30 -500 are bloody cold
    think the 850's were bloody good too
     
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I think NSW will benifit most out of the second half of this system, but not by too much. VIC should do better overall. Baw Baw will again, do best. IMO Little mountain power!