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Predictions: 24th - 30th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by tr+h, Jun 15, 2010.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    LAPS suggests we might see something Friday (with the low moving in to Bass Strait - the High moving on) IMO, but at the very least we're in for very cold conditions and snow showers until then. I'm far from convinced, but it's also not the worst case condition either.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    its colder than 0C on the 850's on Laps for sure.
    see the wind too?? direction
     
    #402 Donza, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    LAPS still showing high pressure though.
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Its is....
    its also showing potential IMO.
     
    #404 Donza, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    3pm GFS is slightly more encouraging in precipitation totals, IMO
     
  6. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I havnt followed LAPS and MLAPS for the past few days, but the +48 MLAPS is better than I expected it to be right now IMO.. Moisture upgrade for vic?
     
    #406 h2oskier, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Personally i'd go LAPS and MLAPS over GFS any day of the week.
     
    #407 Donza, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    IMO, GFS 3pm run is now predicting 10mm across the state for Friday - Sunday - whereas the 9am run had zero. That tends to fall in line with what MLAPS is saying the low will do, but also shows how shaky the models are at this time.
    Actually, in some respects the NOGAPS chart for the 3rd I posted on the weekend might not be that far off track.
     
    #408 Claude Cat, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Friday - Sunday?
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Latest MLAPS run is nice moisture wise.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Actually Saturday / Sunday.
    [​IMG]
     
    #411 Claude Cat, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    CC...i see...
    low progressing NE.


     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Wrong thread?
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Yes possibly - but same system AFAIC
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    showing that Laps is joining GFS?
     
    #415 Donza, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Possibly. Although I don't quite get how the low hops from SW of Tasmania to sitting in the Strait in one day.
    IMO MLAPS is showing more moisture for Wednesday too. Still doesn't marry up with the Satellite if you ask me.
     
    #416 Claude Cat, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Yeah thats the bit that worries me too..
    but then EC and GFS have the low moulding into a miss mass of temps, wind directions and squiggles.
     
    #417 Donza, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Shows the models are picking up the instability in this system and are not sure what is happening 24-48 hours out.
     
    #418 loweee, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    GFS is saying 30 cents++ for Hotham /falls on its snowcast in the next few days
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    [​IMG]
    Long delayed 4 charts from BOM.
    Seem to look a little better IMO.
    But not buying into Saturday (yet) as GFS is.
     
    #420 Claude Cat, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Got to say that GFS is still "meh" for Wednesday, IMO. GFS little more enthusiastic for the weekend (see July 3-5 thread)
    EC is similar to GFS for Wednesday.
     
  22. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    and looks a wee bit better on the arvo run too.
     
    #422 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Even more depressing, BOM just downgraded tuesdays precip in NSW from 1-5 mm to >1 mm, I thought it couldn't get any worse.

    [On the bright side, it looks like we'll have enough snowmaking to have a 3 metre base on front valley perisher. Lets see god try and wash these whales away (probably not a good idea to temp him, this seems to be a year of surprises and not the good kind)]
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Well IMO MLAPS, LAPS, GASP and GFS are all pointing towards 10-15cms until Thursday morning down to 1000ish meters. GFS loves the 3rd-5th system.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    9pm GFS run has the moisture just that bit further east, IMO - lets hope the trend continues.
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    From Obs thread. At least the pressure is lower at 997hPa.
    However, although it doesn't appear on this 4pm map, but I think it's possible there may be a small trough developing SW of Adelaide. This may provide a bit of snow IMO.
     
    #426 Sandy, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    If someone posted that map (hypothetically) without any other outside (models) influence i'd say snow 99%...
    in fact i'm sure if i looked long enough I could find one exactly the same
    are the models making us jump at shadows that ain't there?
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    That map on the NW wind would definitely be cold enough for snow IMO. That's one advantage of a cut off low just west of Tassie.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    an obby prediction
    [​IMG]

    I don't have a crayon...but that big lump of cloud to the SW of Adelaide..oh about 600-800kms away..
    thats looping right around the low
    should be interesting me thinks
     
    #429 Donza, Jun 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    been watching that all arvo myself thinking it has to do something, but not confident enough to post anything in light of recent disastrous calls.
     
  31. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I liked the look of it yesterday and it looks to be delivering for SA. Only issue is will it get pushed south of the mountains.
    NSW BOM have upgraded slightly to a 2 for snow on Wednesday. Agree with Vern that 10 - 15 is on the cards.
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    This is what I was talking about yesterday. It STILL isn't showing on the surface map, but I still think it is a developing trough.
     
    #432 Sandy, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    BOM agree with you too Sandy.
     
  34. Snow Happy

    Snow Happy Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Sorry, where is the trough. I'm new to this??
     
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    There's a patch of cloud near Adelaide:

    [​IMG]

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Welcome, by the way!!! [​IMG]
     
    #435 Sandy, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Vic mountains could 20+ out of this. NSW a bit less. None the less some snow. IMO
     
  37. iGlenn

    iGlenn Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    I hope i'm wrong, but i still can't see this dropping more than 10cms across Vic resorts by thursday. BOM's forecast only calls for scattered or isolated snow showers.

    If this was an observations thread, i'd observe that there is a lot of optimism in here.
     
  38. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    i am starting to feel quietly confident after seeing what is currently happening in sa and that this blob of cold air is tracking our way:)
    imo there might only be 5cm but if things fall right i think 30cm not out of question if the system hold up and tracks east
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Water Vapour Satellite
    Still appears that most of the moisture is heading south - I'm just hoping the rotation just south of Kangaroo Is. brings it around for another go.
     
    #439 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  40. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    looking at the cold air currently over sa,its a fair size band you would think looking at it that there no chance of missing vic??
    there only forecasting snow to around 1000-900mtr over the next couple of days?? imo i think after looking at the temps over the last couple of days and how cold it currently is in sa,then its possible for a 500-600mtr fall?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    It won't miss Victoria, it's just a question of how much of it we get. IMO
    I'm hoping that rotation just south of Adelaide brings it up for another go over Victoria.
     
  42. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Dare I say it this system looks to be 'upgrading'.
    If the high continues to move further east and that moisture follows that track it could be game on. Temps very cool in SA, 8 in Adelaide at 11.00am with 6.8mm of precipitation.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Models vs Observations time.

    Thoughts.?
     
  44. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    still think that MLAPS got it just about right....they've had the moisture extending further East over the past couple of days.
    If we get 5-10cm they'll be right...if the merry-go round comes around again there will probably be another 20-25cm...but that's a big IF.
     
    #444 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    yes,a wait and see game??
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Stay on topic - predictions only.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Latest LAPS run is interesting.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Still shows the bulk of the moisture not getting past Melbourne or a line north, IMO
     
    #448 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Very similar to what GASP run this morning, interesting
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 28th - 30th June

    Yeah.- agreed...I can see that on the Sat pic as well..
    though also under predicted the amount of moisture for SA.
    I tend to think, looking at the way its progged so far that umm its undercooking.
    missed the double banger low as well...well sort of