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Predictions 30th June - 5th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by smitty484, Jun 17, 2009.

  1. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    A long way out yes, but gfs IMO is showing a nice system coming through. Looks cold and windy!
     
  2. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    will be better than anything that will happen over the next 5 days IMO..

    its been consistently lining up and looking promising for the past several days runs.. fingers crossed.
     
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I was about to start this one [​IMG]

    Yes it looks great at the moment and I think this system will come off, as the high pressure systems are being stubborn for the next few weeks

    IMO IMO IMO

    Also expect the charts to flip-flop many times before the end of June, that is a fact!

    IMO
     
    #3 skiflat, Jun 17, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    All aboard for this roller coaster.....
     
  5. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    & it's the giant system that going to finish spilling it's guts on Buller on or about July 23 that we really want isn't it AndDee ?? [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #5 main street, Jun 17, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    ALLLLLL ABOARD!!!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #6 smitty484, Jun 17, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    counting down til vader gets the light saber out.
     
  8. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    [​IMG] yeh it won't last but I thought this thread could do with a chuckle. Have mercy Darth Lord.
     
    #8 smitty484, Jun 17, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Looks as though im going down on the 3rd, ive got my fingers crossed for some good snow!
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Oh dear, this will be an interesting thread.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Looks good at the moment.
     
  12. crudman

    crudman First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    im going 28-3rd so this one better be huge!!
     
    #12 crudman, Jun 19, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  13. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Well latest run shows this system being slayed by the high pressure systems. Hopefully this changes.
     
  14. Creekside Bum

    Creekside Bum Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    slayed indeed, so much for the ride.........gone. All I see is warm moist rubbish. A way off yet but such a dramatic change for the worse, I cannot see it swinging back. In fact I cannot see anything on the radar at all. Sad.
     
  15. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    All I say is remember last year. It can all change very quickly. And if it can change that dramatically for the worse, it can easily do the same for the better.
     
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Just a funny observation that I have noticed on many account with Extended GFS...is that many times a system will pop up for a day or two...dissapear, then re-appear a week later. You never know!
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Oh hell yeah..sometimes I think GFS at 300 hours is better than GFS at 190 hours.
     
    #17 Donza, Jun 19, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  18. Creekside Bum

    Creekside Bum Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    latest run shows nothing for these dates. Times are a changin' aren't they.
    These blocking highs are around most of the year, or so it would seem.
    Our short snow season is getting almost impossibly short.
     
  19. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Blocking highs now appear a constant phenomenon. I think I should move to NZ before my house gets burnt next summer.
     
  20. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The charts will change again tonight and show something completely different.
     
    #20 Stratus, Jun 20, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  21. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I know this contradicts my last post, but... what are you talking about "it's gone"???

    (damn... can't get the image to work) anyway, GFS has a front for these dates. Not as much moisture as before (ignore the 540 line too, that will change), but 5-10 cms will do.
     
  22. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Blocking high's appear to be hanging around for longer than first thought.....

    This system is now showing to peak over WA and then fall down and miss the ski fields.

    Fingers crossed for Mid July for a real dump now as I don't see much until around the 14th of July... IMO
     
  23. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Weatherzone has just totally downgraded everything with really nothing forecast until about July 2nd. Nearly two weeks away and plenty can change over that time for the better, after all all the long range stuff has essentially been wrong up to now. Interestingly thats exactly when it really started coming down last year. Maybe irrelevant, maybe a good omen. I'm putting down the glasses until then.
     
  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Still looking rather good for these dates, despite the usual public outcry over what one chart (extended GFS) says.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    GFS has been a pile of sh1t this season so far.

    There, i said it.
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Oh, and from past experiences, once it starts out with the sort of crap it's been putting out this year, it continues to do it all season long.
     
  27. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Definitely agree with that.
     
    #27 Stratus, Jun 20, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  28. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Verm, earlier this month I predicted a high degree of uncertainty with our weather. Seems as though I was right. [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #28 ice_man, Jun 20, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. -Waterboy-

    -Waterboy- Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Hahahaha.. i feel like that is being quite polite actually..

    Seems like the system is showing up again, i don't have extended GFS but there is defs a beauty of a system building on the 168hr
     
    #29 -Waterboy-, Jun 21, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  30. DVS

    DVS Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Got the tribe booked in at Falls from the 11th. Things are looking pretty sh1te at this stage.

    I will have to make plans to bring the mountain bike....
     
  31. Ozpow

    Ozpow Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    11th is weeks away - things can go from boiled lollies to swiss chocolate in 2 days....look at last season.
    I still see hope all through early July.
     
  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    As ridiculous and unbelievable as Extended GFS scenarios are...they are showing a general high migration to the north which is very good.
     
  33. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    relax every year the "dedicated" snow reporters on this forum forecast a dim season...guess what the snow still falls....last year it was susposed to be a slow start to the season, n then it snowed second week of july i think it was 50+ cms....and the base peeked by the first week of august was almost 200cm...
     
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Yeh the upgraded extended forecast is showing something interesting for these dates now. No dominating high there anymore. It will continue to chop and change but it has changed for the better again.
     
  35. Optimist2

    Optimist2 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    up and down for a few days I would say, it will be interesting to watch
     
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Just reminding some of you new timers that the Extended GFS charts, really are and always have been useless, as they are forecast in a different resolution. Some of the biggest snow events we have had in the last few years didn't even shown up on the Extended GFS charts. From my observation, the model is only good for giving an "indication", at best, of some activity around certain dates. Don't let it take you on a daily emotional joyride!
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Back to this system and I'm liking this a bit more now! EC has been pretty spot on the money this season, and in its latest +168hr chart its showing a nice set up on the 28th to allow for a succession of fronts to pass, and hit, in the coming 4 days. No nasty blocking highs look to be present like we have been seeing in current systems. GASP, as crazy it it can be, is also in a similar agreeance.

    I think we may have an exciting time on our hands [​IMG]
     
    #37 Stratus, Jun 21, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Both GASP & EC showing the system to pretty much peak over WA.

    Never a good thing
     
  39. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    GFS looks awesome for amount of precip... nearly a full week! I know it will change... but I see a hell of a lot of rain before a hell of a lot of snow. That sounds OK to me!!!
     
  40. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I have worries about this one too. Models look like throwing up another early peaking cut off low to fizz out over SA.
     
  41. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The temps should be low enough for a decent period though & that should allow the snowmakers to get to work...... maybe 10cm of natural snow during this period & it all helps.
     
  42. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    That is a dirty big high that is positioning itslef there. Let's hope that thing buggers off real quick!
     
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    What "dirty big high"??

    As for these dates, its still looking really good for 20cm or so over 3 days. As main street pointed out, it will still be nice and cold for the precip to fall as snow (wet snow as it may be).
     
  44. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    afaict: Care to explain where you are getting 20cm during these dates ?

    The 30th looks like being too warm, and it will just rain
    Cold air arrives on the 1st, but little moisture
    Cold air still on the 2nd, but little moisture
    IMO

    10cms from this one now, my earlier call was wrong, the blocking highs are stuffing this one up

    As for the "dirty big high"

    It's EVERYWHERE at the moment and just hangs around
     
  45. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The fronts from this system look to start on the 28th.

    It will be cold enough from the tail end of this weeks coming system for moisture to fall as snow to about 1600m. The pressure will be nice and low, so there should be a nice amount of moisture *considering* the set up would otherwise inhibit it.

    I'm am basing my forecast little from Extended GFS, and mostly from where EC leaves off on the 28th.

    As far as I can see:

    28th - Temps cool enough for snow, pressure low enough. Possibly 5 - 10cm.
    29th to 30th - Temperatures will be a tad warmer, sleet / snow higher up, some drizzle down low. Still not "warm" by any means.
    1st to 2nd - Cold air will hit with crossing low and pressure will remain low, another 5cm to 10cm possible.
    3rd, 4th, 5th - Pressure remaining quite low, a colder and moisture SW feed means another possible 5cm to 10cm.

    Not a "dump", but some nice consistent falls are very likely. [​IMG]
     
    #45 Stratus, Jun 22, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I was basing my comment off extended gfs. I know it is unreliable and I am sure it will continue to chop and change. However the last while and the coming week is completely dominated by high’s that keep destroying all hope of snowfall. Well apart from very minimal snowfall this week. I just keep hoping it changes.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    It is unreliable and it will change. Thats why no one forecasts off it here.
     
    #47 Stratus, Jun 22, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  48. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Ummm ????

     
    #48 skiflat, Jun 22, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    "It is unreliable and it will change. That's why no one should base an entire forecast off it."

    Happy?
     
  50. DVS

    DVS Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I have noticed that my right knee always aches just before it snows...
     
    #50 DVS, Jun 22, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013