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Predictions 30th June - 5th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by smitty484, Jun 17, 2009.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    My hat..80cm-100cm from Tuesday evening-wednesday early morning until sunday morning.@ Perisher
    It ticks all the boxes.
    Weak high near Perth -check.
    Deep southern low- check.
    Moisture -check.
    Nor West feed- check. On sat picture clear as day.
    EC- the nellys model-check
    Windy- check
    W-SW fetch.
    Kinked uppers. Smashing into the subtropical jet.
     
    #251 Donza, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Agree , certainly ticks all the right boxes ATM. I think Buller will likely see a touch more rain given the usual +1c temp difference. Doesnt look like too much tho. Hotham should turn to snow during tues.
    I dont think we need to worry about any rain quantiity wise really, especially with whats progged to follow Weds>
     
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    The Plowking: Yes temps are a slight issue still..

    Rain should turn to snow around Wednesday night, which is when it will get interesting as temps appear to rise again going into Thursday. Then Thursday afternoon going into Friday temps should drop very nicely with the SW feed.

    Sat and Sunday will be cold and the Southern resorts should do nicely

    I am still concerned a little about temps overall though until Friday..

    IMO
     
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Yeah I can't see too much damaging pre frontal over the broad range of things. There will be the initial blast Tuesday evening, but the temperatures should drop over night to a reasonable level for snow above 1650m, and sleet a little below that.

    Any terrain over 1700 - 1750m will get absolutely dumped on over this whole system.

    Then the SW feed arrives with the real cold temperatures and MORE moisture.

    I also think GFS has hit the nail on the head with the moisture levels - the pressure is still progged to be deadly low.

    Exciting stuff!
     
    #254 Stratus, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  5. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    havent seen a system like this for a while. Guys any chance for snow up in the central/northern tablelands, the 540 line looks fairly north on friday.
     
  6. Powder_Pete

    Powder_Pete First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    As the front hit the south coast of WA it brought a lot of rain to the SW and the temps didn't really drop much. However the rain is continuing to fall and now the temps are starting really drop. Hence the cold air to follow continues to bring rain.

    Then looking at the current satellite image there seems to be a lot of cold air curling into the centre of the low in the bight. This low will continue to track along towards the east coast (with no highs sitting in the way) so we should see a nice dump when it arrives. The temps will be cold since it will be continually be sucking air from the south and moisture won't be an issue. As seen in WA. There will be upto 60cm come Sunday, however the resorts will be tight and not open up any new terrain til next week. So there will be more snow but no new terrain open to enjoy it with.
     
  7. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Please..someone just post the May 2000 dump synoptic and get it over already!!! [​IMG]
     
    #257 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    this system dosent happen alot in Australia, i dont remember seeing a low just sit in one spot for a period of time (5days) ...when i looked at the weather maps i thought maybe 20-30cms would fall from this wednesday to sunday, i had a look on the frogs website, he really believes in this system:

    wednesday:10-20cm (blizard conditions: snow level 1500m
    thursday:15-30cms (snow level 1400m
    Friday:15-30cms (snow level 1100m
    saturday:2-5cm snow level 1200m
    sunday:1-4cm snow level 1200m

    minimum 43cms over the week....maximum 89CMS...PLEASE be right
     
  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    ummm it was 2000, not 2001 ... [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Anyway, as I said in the obs thread, the first front is weak and warm, although there is a good amount of tropical moisture being fed into it. It will result in a fair bit of rain for them lower resorts and some possible wet snow for Hotham / falls (and maybe buller up top).

    it is the second front that just went through Perth (last night) that is the key one. It should hit the alpine areas around Thursday night into Friday ... That could dump between 40-60cm over the vico resorts, and 20-30cm over NSW resorts from thursday night to Saturday. Worth watching, but it will be VERY VERY windy, not fun to be skiing!
     
    #259 trappers, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Gee Trappers thats a big variance in snowfalls between Vic and NSW. I would think the snowfalls between VIC and NSW will be fairly even. Not 50% less.
     
  11. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I claim typo!!! [​IMG]
     
    #261 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #262 Donza, Jun 29, 2009
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  13. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    The most important part from that

    Alpine ski resorts were jubilant, however, with over a metre of powder snow recorded at Mt Hotham and over 80cm at Falls Creek. Farmers in the state's parched southwest were also pleased with around 70mm of precipitation, even if some stock were lost in the cold.
     
    #263 skiflat, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. Powder_Pete

    Powder_Pete First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Looking at the latest GFS there seems to be very little pre frontal rain. Which is good for the resorts.

    Once the front hits the Vic alps the snow level will rapidly drop, from 2000m (6pm Tue) 1600m (10pm Tue) and then sit around 1200m til friday morning where it will drop to about 800m come friday morning with a strong moist SW wind.

    I have been in the Vic alps when these systems have come thru, there can often be rain for a couple of hours, but then the SW winds kick-in and the rain turns to snow at the drop of a hat.

    So.... the front is due to hit tue night so this will help with lower temps, hence there will be snow on Vic alps come wed morning.
     
  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I think the bulk of the moisture will be too far south for NSW, it will be cold and very windy but from the charts I'm not confident it will be "wet" enough further North. I think you'll find the Jetstream which is feeding the moisture will plok itself right over northern Vicco, and much will bypass NSW. But it is a very fine thing, a very small change in the location of the jetstream will change everything!

    The really cold air is well behind the front that will hit on Wednesday. While some of the higher resorts will see some wet snow on Wednesday but the main front will hit Thursday night ... and I would not want to be anywhere near the Alpine areas when it does, as it will be very very windy up there!
     
    #265 trappers, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I disagree.com.
    Personally I reckon that NSW will get more. cause its better .....nerrrrrr.


    Seriously though we have cloud seeding. This is a cloud seeding front.
     
    #266 Donza, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  17. Powder_Pete

    Powder_Pete First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Donza, you really think cloud seeding before this front will change the amount of snow?? Do you know of past fronts where seeding was used and changed the outcome!

    This front is too strong for there to be any noticeble differnce from seeding. If it dumps in NSW how will we know it was due to seeding and not mother nature?
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I think cloud seeding will lengthen the duration of heavy snowfalls. Its happened before.
     
    #268 Donza, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Powder_Pete

    Powder_Pete First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    How you know its due to seeding?
     
  20. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Still going for max of 30cms for Buller

    IMO
     
  21. mx_boarder

    mx_boarder Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    my lodge has room....so im hovering above the big green button!

    fine line between waiting for a better idea of the likely result/lodge filling [​IMG]
     
    #271 mx_boarder, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I wouldnt bother going up this weekend. It will probably still be overcast (clouded over) and very windy still on Saturday, Sunday might be a goer, but I wouldnt bother until early next week ... Mon or Tuesday could be pearlers!
     
  23. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    If this comes off there's going to some excellent quality white stuff around on Saturday - and I don't mean from Colombia! Can't see it getting above -5 C at the top of Thredders based on the charts ATM.
    Although having said that, this afternoon's 4 day chart from the BOM doesn't make it look like it will be that cold on Saturday.
    Anybody know if imbedded troughs in a system bring as much snow or are as cold as an imbedded front? This system seems to be awash (bad word, I know) with imbedded troughs.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00074.shtml
     
    #273 adminvb, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2013
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    AndDee,
    I was just perusing the snow forecast charts on here and I'm definately seeing blocks of PURPLE for Buller, Hotham and Falls, that's 80-100cms [​IMG] by thursday evening/friday morning.
    If i'm not mistaken these charts are based on GFS(???) and as a result aren't particularly reliable and even more difficult to desipher (with the kids colour by numbers etc), but that's a massive discrepancy between your prediction and what the models are showing, what do you see/not see in this system that some others are??

    This is an honest/sincere question, not attempting to poke holes in your prediction. I and I'm sure others with less experience and knowledge would like to hear why you are seeing such a different picture at this stage?
     
    #274 mick chopps, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    theres been a massive downgrade from the 150+ mm for buller to about 50mm for buller from Wed-Sat, now its looking like 50-60cm of snow instead of 80-100, i thought that chart was on drugs anyway it would take remarkable circumstances to get 1.5m of snow in 3 days
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    GFS seems to me be over predicting the amount of precipitation after Thursday.

    It should be quite wet Tuesday-Thursday before the colder air comes through.

    I have an issue with how GFS is predicting the low pressure system to sit off the East Coast and push the precip mixed with the cold air over the resorts late Thursday into Saturday. Low pressure is needed and I don't see it being there.

    It will be cold during this time, colder than the BOM predict IMO, but the amount of moisture I think will be an issue Thursday onwards.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00074.shtml These charts also indicate pressure to be around 1016 on Thursday-Saturday which isn't that snow friendly either. High pressure is basically bad.

    Time will tell and I have my hat on the shelf but that's my 2cents, and I hope I am wrong and we get 1metre so I can head off to Falls or HotHam for the weekend.

    IMO
     
    #276 skiflat, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  27. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Please provide links or explain the charts/source that you get this from [​IMG]

    50-60mm is about right IMO of which 30mm should be snow!

    1mm = 1cm of snow in most cases
     
    #277 skiflat, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    From this afternoon's GFS run.
    [​IMG]
    I still think that it's overestimating the total precipitation, but even if we get half, we should be reasonably happy.
     
    #278 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. Powder_Pete

    Powder_Pete First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    It is very rare to have 1m of snow fall in Australia within a few days, so going on a historical vibe/knowledge...... we won't see 1m out of this system.

    Lets hope I'm wrong!!!
     
  30. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    the frog has found it! 50cm IMO
     
  31. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Bom NSW has just updated their forecast, they are calling 20-40mm of rain on tuesday, and then 6-10cm of snow on wednesday (at perisher). Lets hope the temps can drop in time for the big moisture band...
     
  32. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Well what do you know? BOM has just released it's Melbourne forecast at 4.32pm and the temps have dropped a few degrees from Wednesday onward compared to this mornings forecast.

    Also dropped Buller and Hotham forecast temps too.
     
  33. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    VIC BOM

    Tues - Rain tending to snow (1600m late in the evening)
    Wed - Snow 1300m
    Thur - Snow Chance of storms 1300m

    Very windy for the next few days.
     
  34. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    BOM NSW does look ugly, but I have seeen them prdeict 4 for snow and we got nothing so hopefully it will not be that bad..
    I think we will see a bit of a downgrade overnight for the week but still a good net gain. 30 - 40cm for me.
     
  35. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Why do you think there will be a downgrade?I've noticed a lot of these non descript posts lately.How about a bit of optomism for a change
     
  36. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Yes there will definitely be rain until at least tuesday evening in NSW then at least 50cm as most people have been calling, the best thing about this system is the winds are forecast to gust at up to 125km/h which will blow allot of snow in to fill areas like the antons, sponars and the bluff plus the base that is there will set nice and solid in the cold air behind the front. The other bonus with strong wind is it will keep the hills almost devoid of people. Happy to sacrifice a pair of skis if I am wrong.
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    ^^ Friday will prevail blizzard conditions and I would assume a lot if not all lifts will probably be on Wind Hold for some part of the day.

    Just a little thought....
    If that trailing High slows / stalls over the weekend, the low will remain in a very good position off the east coast to suck in more moisture and spit it out from the SE.
    I think there is definitely the potential for a moisture upgrade if this happens. Guess we'll have to see!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #287 Stratus, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Well the models have parted ways this evening with ECM now ridging the system out under high pressure pretty quickly after a strong frontal system passes through Wednesday/Thursday, compared to GFS's strong SW'er on Friday. This would support AndDee's conclusion of things being pretty dry from later Thursday onwards.

    As for rain, IMO plenty of it particularly in NSW. Vic may not be so bad with colder air arriving a bit earlier. Still I think the first front Wednesday/Thursday has enough for a genuine improvement in conditions even with rain before. If ECM is right though lower areas may still be looking dodgey afterwards as the potential for good lower altitude snow falls really only looks like later Thursday onwards.
     
  39. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    As expected GFS has come back a bit. Temps will be well above what expected (except Andee picked this a few days out) and BOM are looking at over 20mm rain tomorrow.
    Temps at Mt Lofty are very warm (14 deg) so the warm weather has at least another 24 hours to run in the mountains. Cooler westerlies are still around Esperance in WA let alone the SW feed. Warm temps are not the major concern it is the precipitation. Looks to be some moisture showing up over SA at the moment which is not good at all.

    On a positive note the weather from Wednesday onwards looks great. Still postive gains overall and there should be some good skiing this weekend.
     
  40. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I am not sure where you are looking Outlooker. GFS is showing little to no presipitation tomorrow and then when the precipitation comes throug on Wed the blue line comes with it. Sure the snow will start out wet, but from where I am looking it doesn't look like to much pre frontal. GASP seems to pretty much imitate this.
     
  41. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Appears to be a good 20-30mm before the snow level drops to around 1400 metres into Wed morning

    Then the snow level appears to rise again with another 10 or so mm before falling again afterwards

    Thursday morning onwards is when it should be good!

    Still going for 30cms for Buller

    IMO
     
  42. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Even when you break the GFS map down into 12 hour segments, the 5440 line is above the snowfields. The blue line follows soon after.
     
  43. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    not too good for people who want to ski the golf course, for my experiences working there if i rains first then gets cold it will freeze and a layer of ice will form there for the snow wont settle on the ground in the open places...thats why when it snows at thredbo you cant really tell on the basin cam...

    i really like this system, the frog agrees...thredbo mite get alot of rain thought especially down the low, well hey atleast the moisture is there the temperatures can change all the time and the big high that was in the forecast over the middle of australia last week is still moving around, fingers crossed
     
  44. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    The wizard of pukology has spoken: This one has got the goods.

    Half metre minimum when all is said and done. Maybe not at the base but on the higher terrain, certainly.
     
  45. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Not looking at GFS for tomorrow. Looking at the Sat pic, radars and obs from BOM. More commenting on GFS coming back a little for later in the week. Overall tomorrow will be a bad day to be skiing be it R^%$ or wind but things will pick up Wednesday. This system is still going to be good. Still 30 -40 for me. [​IMG]
     
    #295 Outlooker, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  46. jvspike

    jvspike First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    with my expert forecasting knowledge, and judging by the way the wind is blowing, and the wombat digging a nice snug hole quite frantically that i saw at buller today, something big is coming!
    im gonna lay down that we will have just short of a 1m base by sunday.
    im counting on it aswell, because if it doesnt come off, ill still be working 2-4 day weeks haha
     
  47. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    This system is certainly looking promising. All charts pretty much agree on what's going to happen. i.e. minimum 30cm at Buller between Tuesday night and Saturday.

    Sunday afternoon/Monday could be good with low temps and improving visibility.
     
  48. Loister

    Loister Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    yeah agree. all chart seem to start in line now. just booked my flights down to melb on fri night so i can get to buller.
     
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    I think i'll be at Thredbo come friday morning. Hopefully only a couple of main lifts will be running with plenty of virgin runs on offer for those prepared to hike relatively short distances.
     
  50. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Overall this certainly looks like a very nice addition to the currently dwindling base.

    My take on GFS, is a significant r*in event Tuesday night, clearing to some lighter snow showers, followed by heavier snowfalls starting later morning Wednesday and running through Thursday night. Then looks like Baw Baw/Lake Mountain and Buller could do well on Friday from a strong, colder SW-S flow. Then things look like they will clear for the weekend, so could be a great time to be up the hills, though with School holidays on, I imagine it will be rather busy in them thar hills. The current Mt Hotham Meteogram looks very nice for some consistent falls across the period :

    [​IMG]
     
    #300 Djon, Jun 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013