Predictions 30th June - 5th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by smitty484, Jun 17, 2009.

  1. Kony_Abbott

    Kony_Abbott Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Any input on what Perisher might be like this Sunday? I'm thinking of making a quick dash there for the day, can't contain myself any longer...

    Any new terrain likely to be opening (if the dump comes off), or would they wait until after the weekend?
     
  2. Optimist2

    Optimist2 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    still looking good, I don.t see that much damage from prefrontal r@1n although a big band o moisture is pushing through soon and temps are well above 0, might just be ligh at the start.... (might)

    (oh yeah, I am refering to nsw, looks like rain in vic already)
     
  3. Makazaru

    Makazaru Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    sbfellow.
    Perisher will still have trees and rocks, lifts will be open, I'm calling 40cm of snow at the moment.
    If Perisher get the snow, they will get things opened. Many areas are begging for it at the moment, but it also depends on what may follow, if it was my resort I'd keep a lid on some of the high traffic/rocky areas till they have good cover, not do what has happened so far and mess up a good base. If it was my resort...
     
  4. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    IMO charts still looking good this morning. 40-50cm. Could be more in areas. IMO
     
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Going by EC which tends to be the most reliable, I would expect around 40 - 50cm as a general result at all resorts (as indicated by smitty and others). However, as others have suggested on here, it will be VERY windy as it almost always is with snowfalls in Oz, and exposed areas will sure to be wind scoured with a lot of snow being blown into the valleys.

    Worst case scenario I can see from this system, and no one else has even mentioned this which I am very surprised about, is that VIC will get some much needed rain!

    SBFellow, I think this Saturday/Sunday 'could' be a chance of some new lifts/terrain opening but don't be surprised if they hold off until school hols kick into top gear.....
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    The charts still look good, moisture levels (GFS) remain consistent.
    I'm still sticking with my 50cm prediction.
    [​IMG]
     
    #306 Claude Cat, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Dendrite

    Dendrite First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Anyone know why the frog hasn't updated this morning?
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Maybe post that on the snowatch forums? der.
     
  9. Optimist2

    Optimist2 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    maybe he is packing his car
     
  10. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    The Frog's net wasn't working this morning, there is a post over there explaining that.

    The NSW BOM are not really behind this in terms of lots of snow

    They are going for

    Cabramurra
    6-10mm on Wed
    6-10mm on Thur

    OR 12-20cms of snow

    Perisher
    1-5mm on Wed
    1-5mm on Thur

    OR 2-10cms of snow

    Friday should be better for NSW resorts though!

     
  11. Arctic Air

    Arctic Air First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Not anymore. Just did a mid-day update which is not very common:

    Forecast for Tuesday
    Showers tending to heavy rain by later this afternoon and continuing this evening. Gale force northwest winds.

    Forecast for Wednesday
    Rain, falling as snow above 1400 metres, likely blizzard conditions about higher parts. Strong to gale force Westerly winds.

    Forecast for Thursday
    Snow throughout, Isolated thunderstorms and likely blizzard conditions. Strong to Gale force westerly winds.

    Forecast for Friday
    Snow easing with moderating westerly winds.

    Quantitative rainfall Cabramurra Perisher Valley
    Today (9 am/3 pm) 1 1
    Tonight (3 pm/9 am) 5 5
    Wednesday (24 h from 9 am) 3 3
    Thursday (24 h from 9 am) 3 3

    Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm) <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN10103.html

    Look at that precipitation level for tonight! They are predicting 41-80mm!! Now if some of this can fall as snow...
     
    #311 Arctic Air, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Hmmm very strange for a mid-day update

    Forget about today and tonight that is 50mm of rain there

    22-40cms of snow is about right

    I am sticking with my 30cms call from a few days ago
     
  13. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    Hmmm you really never do see the BOM do an update during the day. Bottom of thredbo will cop a hammering, hopefully up high it can get below 0 before the bulk of that hits.
     
  14. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July


    Basically the problem here in is temp related and not the lack of weather systems in winter !?
     
  15. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    This system reminds me a lot of the mid august dump we received back in 2001. I was there at the start of it and it dropped about 10-15mm of rain in the night before turning to snow at thredbo but than for the next 4days or so it dumped with the base jumping up about 80cm. It had several cold fronts embedded in it such as this one and there was really strong wind as it approached.
     
  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    That one was awesome, I had some great skiing at Buller that week, then I hurt my ankle and it finished my season.
     
  17. Powder_Pete

    Powder_Pete First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 4th July

    The temps won't be an issue with this one. I just checked out the Stawell AP (228m)weather station. It droped from 17.2C at 14:32 to 9.9C at 14:38. Thats 7.3C in 6mins with 2.4mm of rain and it's still coming down.

    The rain we are seeing in the resorts is from the warm Northerlies, once the front hits it will be game on. It will be like flicking a switch from rain to snow. I've been up there in these type of storms, the vibe changes so quickly from [​IMG] to [​IMG]

    Also the high mountains will stall the moisture so we will see at least 20mm (+ what ever prefrontal has already fallen) on most of the resorts readings tomorrow morning.

    So tomorrow all resort will have over 20cm of fresh stuff.
     
    #317 Powder_Pete, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. SnowAndrew

    SnowAndrew One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    BOM looks good - particularly tomorrow and Thursday!
     
  19. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Yeah BOM NSW just changed to 21-40mm for both tomorrow and Thursday....not to mention tonights.
     
  20. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Big mositure call from BOM NSW this afternoon with 5 for Tonight, 4 for Wed and 4 for Thurs. We will get temp drops with this front so IMO we should see snow above 1650 from around 8.00pm tonight.
    We could get that 20cm PP with a bit of luck.
     
  21. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    [​IMG] bloody hell

    atleast it is falling mid week and i can watch on here rather than the weekend with no net access!
     
    #321 SNJ, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    BoM model hasn't updated.

    Forecast for snow above 1300 metres for tomorrow, then down to 1000 on Thursday, similar story into the weekend. I see it going lower!!!
     
  23. johnny2times

    johnny2times First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Sitting at home in Bright, VIC. It has been peeing down all day and getting heavier. Was hoping to see the temp turn lower by now, but we're still sitting on about 12deg. Usual rule of thumb for this neck of the woods - below 8deg in town - white stuff falling up top.
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    wet wet wet.
     
  25. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    What BOM model are you talking about?
     
    #325 slalom pete, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Yikes - first time I've seen BOM give a "5" reading for tonight's predicted precipitation levels in a long time.

    However, 4's are predicted for tomorrow and thursday which is a good sign.......

    So when is the cold air predicted to come through at this stage peeps?
     
  27. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The midly cool air should arrive early tomorrow morning, but the very cold air that will arrive with the SW front will be about 20 hours away.
     
  28. Dr_Acula

    Dr_Acula First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July
     
  29. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    75cms before this ones done.
    afaict,that was such a samantha thing to say.
     
  30. crama

    crama One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Tis time to puke down
     
  31. Kony_Abbott

    Kony_Abbott Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I observe that this system is giving me a hardon


    ...wait what?
     
  32. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Just lost satelite Tv.Now settling on roof and exposed grass out the front.No more waterfall from roof.
     
  33. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    PARTY AT SAGO'S JOINT,whats your address son.Snorkel party that is.
     
  34. dpt

    dpt Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Can someone explain in plain english the Dew point?

    Thanks
     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The point the temperature needs to reach for there to be 100% Humidity (or Saturation).
     
    #335 Stratus, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  36. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    afaict,what exactly is the wet bulb and how does it affect the situation at hand.
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July


    Basically, the difference between the Wet Bulb and Dry Bulb (aka normal) temperature gives us the Humidity. Not really relevant at all in this situation, but it is for snow making.

    A bit of a better explanation here:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/wetbulb.shtml


    Back to the system and the first of the cold air is now moving into Victoria from the West. It is not bone chilling cold but it will lower the snow level to about 1600 - 1650m.

    This cold air is trailing the next front (you can see it crossing Mt Gambier now). It is a good 5 hours away however.

    Hopefully by the time I wake up tomorrow I will be seeing some white stuff on the cams!

    =]
     
    #337 Stratus, Jun 30, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  38. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    should I start my own website?
     
    #338 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. snow_fox

    snow_fox First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Am i right to assume that the high pressure system trailing the current low will drag up some cold wind from the south but as the high moves through it will bring some warm air down from the north (potentially with moisture) to feed the trailing low pressure system?
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    But snowpixie i beat you by 2 hours.. [​IMG]
     
    #340 Donza, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  41. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    fair call Donza..gotta admit I only dragged up all the charts for a squiz when I read your post.
    What about starting a website called
    "Dodgey Brothers Forecasts for the Snow Curious?"
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Add "froth free" and i'm in.

    Gee LAPS has gone all ridgey.
    Just can't see GFS coming off.
     
    #342 Donza, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Spot on. The trailing high will create an excellent cold feed. Basically the duration of this entire system will depend on how quickly the high pushes through...so if it moves slower then predicted, the feed will remain for longer and we will get more snow.

    This is actually what the charts were suggesting a few days ago, but it now looks like the high will have well and truly moved in by Monday.
     
    #343 Stratus, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. snow_fox

    snow_fox First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Thanks afaict, looks like a nice setup for some good snow falls...
     
  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Latest Meso-Laps showing yellow goodness over the NSW mountains to 10am tomorrow, then same again to 10am friday.
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    It is and its agreeing kind of with GFS [​IMG] - more south than sw friday.
     
    #346 Donza, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  47. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Just had a look at the national satellite and radar loop. Any idea if the cloud over WA in the jetstream will meet up with the really cold air and give it an additional boost in moisture levels?
     
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Would be nice...but...i don't think it will
    [​IMG]
     
    #348 Donza, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  49. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    gotta like that fat cloud being dragged in in the southern ocean on the sat loop for tomorrow night....
     
  50. newxr

    newxr First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The way I see, it will be coldest Thurs night into friday morning with most snow (not tonight).

    At the moment the current low looks like it will park itself near the top of the north island of New Zealand by Sat. If (and only if) the high coming from the west stalls in the bite for only a few hours allowing the low to become a classic ECL in the middle of the trench we could see some serious falls late on Saturday into sunday (NSW > Vic)

    One can only hope