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Predictions 30th June - 5th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by smitty484, Jun 17, 2009.

  1. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Typo??? 100m!!!!!
    Warning Summary at issue time:
    A deep low is centred over the Southern Ocean and maintains a strong and moist westerly flow over the region. Showers and snowfalls will continue through tonight and on Thursday, before increasing late in the day as another cold front moves across the region. The snow level currently lies around the 1600 metre mark and is expected to gradually lower to around 1300 metres overnight, before dipping further to around 100 metres by Friday as some cold air moves over the region in the wake of the next front. Snow showers and winds will ease rapidly on Saturday as the low moves away and winds swing around to the south.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Vic BOM saying snow down to 1000m on Friday.
     
  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Looks like we are in for another 5cm tonight then probably 20-30cm on Thursday night. Looking at the cams we need at least 30cm more snow (down to 1300m) for some off piste to be skiable.

    Hope this is the case as i'm planning on skiing friday and on the weekend. Don't like the sound of 'ease rapidly' in the BOM forecast.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The Vic BOM forecast for alpine areas implies they don't think that there will be huge dump here. They only have scattered snow showers through to Saturday, which makes me think that the total accumulations might be on the somewhat disappointing side.
     
  5. choc

    choc One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    NSW BoM going for 25-55cm all below 1300m from tonight through Friday. That'll work, and with the winds, Thredbo should fill in nicely.
     
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Definitely not as much enthusiasm as yesterday. Still looks positive on Meso-Laps though.
     
    #356 Snow Blowey, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  7. Adjum

    Adjum Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The VIC radar is looking better every hour! [​IMG] A couple of nice cells around
     
    #357 Adjum, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    snow-forecast has downgraded in the last 24hrs - only about 15 - 20cm and most of it they now say will be above 1500, and only light snow showers when the real cold air hits around fri night.
     
  9. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    goin off nsw bom they are still saying between 20-40mm for perisher valley on thursday so still got lots in it!!!
     
  10. toddles

    toddles Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    FIZZER
     
  11. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I think that the cloud streaming in from the NW is worth keeping an eye because if that is over the mountains at the same time a front comes through to activate the moisture it will be game on for a possible 40cm of snow plus there will be at least five days of solid snow making weather to help put a good cover on the main runs.
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Looking fantastic for Thursday / Friday / Saturday, and possibly into Sunday for NSW.

    30cm - 50cm TOTAL Accumulation (not all in one dump!) by Monday is a real possibility.

    Will depend on if the trailing high storms through or stalls for a bit over the w/kd.

    [​IMG]
     
    #362 Stratus, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I see no evidence of any downgrade on the available evidence.In fact, some resorts eg Falls are currently ahead of schedules.
    70cm average by Sunday morning wouldn't surprise..
     
  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Well I think the resorts have done pretty darn well from this Westerly Flow!!

    The real stuff hasn't even arrived and the cold front is still on it's way, so treat this current snow now as a bonus!!
     
  15. jackson96

    jackson96 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Falls Creek has already had 20-30cm+ on southern exposures and about 20cm on home trails. The wind has loaded everything. Despite the marginal temps down low it pretty well snowed all day and the wet heavy snow packed down nice really fast. It was absolutely puking when I left tonight. IMO things are going to get A LOT better tomorrow and Friday the way the charts are looking.
     
  16. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The northern resorts (Falls, Hotham etc) usually do well out of westerly systems, but not so well from the southerly systems, which favour the southern resorts (Baw Baw, LM and Buller)
     
  17. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Looks like some decent moisture on the way to NSW tonight. Some OK accumulations before the big one tommorow.
    Some nice moisture in the bight from the Sat pic and looks on track to hit the mountains in the neaxt 24 hours.
    It is all coming together and the loss of some base yesterday should recover tonight. Being conservative I would think 30 - 40cm.
     
  18. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    The NSW BOM forecast for tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and night looks delicious.

    Scattered showers falling as snow above 1300 metres.
    Snowfalls increasing late in the day with likely blizzard conditions about the peaks and the chance of thunderstorm.
    Snowfalls expected to lower to 1000 metres Thursday night.
    Strong westerly winds, gale force about the peaks.

    Thredbo Top Station Windy. Snow, increasing later. Min: -3 Max: -2
    Perisher Valley Windy. Snow, increasing later. Min: -2 Max: 1
    Cabramurra Snow/sleet, increasing later. Min: 1 Max: 1

    Chance of snow 1500 m 1900 m
    Day (6 am/6 pm) 85 % 95 %
    Night (6 pm/6 am) 95 % 95 %
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I'm feeling bullish (possibly blind optimism) about the prospects of some extra moisture from this!
    Looking at the Sat loop from today It's definitely getting drawn down and into the system. Hope it continues, could be a little extra punch tomorrow night into friday!!
     
    #369 mick chopps, Jul 1, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. Creekside Bum

    Creekside Bum Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Aggreed. this has not even started, hold on to your hats.......
     
  21. mjmmjm

    mjmmjm First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    If this is just the beginning then this could potentially be massive.
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Didnt have much in the first place, so rain didnt matter, not much to wash away.

    Now the party is going to kick in, i havent put a total on this one because im still not 100% convinced, but there is potential.
     
  23. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Hey Teckel....Would that mean that with Selwyn being positioned where it is that they should do well out of this or does it not head quite that far north?? I'm just not sure how this thing could change or shift from the Vic resorts to NSW. Selwyn is such a hit and miss resort... having said that though... when they get hit the really get hit!Obs from Sydney are mild with a breeze starting to kick up a little.
     
  24. Boonie

    Boonie Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    That big cloud mass coming up from the bight certainly looks impressive, despite not showing a huge amount of moisture on today's GFS. My gut feeling is that there will be a fair bit in it when it actually arrives at the mountains, mebbe 25-30cms worth. Could be a very interesting day.
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Selwyn should do better than the main resorts later today when it starts coming more from the SW. The main NSW resorts are in the rain shadow of the VIC alps when it comes from the SW but Selwyn is further north and is less affected by the Vic Alps. This is reflected in BOM forecast for more precipitation at Cabrumurra than Perisher.

    Selwyn also does well out of NW as its at the NW end of the NSW alpine area. In this case the NW was a little to warm for selwyns low altitude, hence poor snow so far.
     
    #375 Snow Blowey, Jul 2, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I agree boonie. A good 3-5 hrs of solid dumping when that moves over the mountains. I'm hoping it stalls till lifts close today so people don't beat me to Funnelweb in the morning!
     
    #376 Snow Blowey, Jul 2, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  27. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I'm thinking it might favour the southern resorts, Baw Baw and Lake Mountain. That isn't to say the other resorts will get nothing, though.
     
  28. Adjum

    Adjum Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    nice rain band appearing on the SA radars now. [​IMG]
     
    #378 Adjum, Jul 2, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    We should get good snow all day before the action starts tonight. I reckon the bigs falls will be after the lifts close some some good freshies in the morning.
    Should be 30 - 40 cm additional by the morning plus what we get tommorow so total accumulations of around 60 - 80cm (at Perisher).
    There is another band pushing up behind this current one hitting the coast and if it delivers the weekend will be worth the drive south.
    It's gonna be huge.
     
  30. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I'm a bit worried the bulk of the moisture will miss Thredbo/Perisher, some hitting the vic resorts and something going north over north of PB. What do you guys reckon?

    Atleast it will get colder!
     
  31. rodatthebay

    rodatthebay First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Looking at the Radar I think both Vic and nSW resorts will get their share with this system.

    Thankyou snowgods..
     
  32. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Personally I'm worried Baw Baw is missing out! Models have been showing good rain for the south from about now on. We haven't seen much of it, but tomorrow looks better temp wise. 11 for Latrobe Valley must indicate some cold, unstable air.

    A Flood Watch has just been issued for Northeast Victoria. Wow.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Baw Baw will do better on Friday through to Sunday when the winds switch the the south.
     
  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Mlaps afternoon update still has loads of moisture in this for tomorrow, another 30cm+ in this over the next 36-48hrs!!! IMO
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Been very marginal anywhere below 1500m so far, hence why baw baw hasnt picked up much. Tonight things will change although mt william is still hovering around 2C which is too warm for my liking (for snow down below 1300m).
     
  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Been watching that to verm. I'd say most of the moisture will have passed by the time it gets cold enough to snow down to 1000m. That said i expect to see decent accumulation in Thredbo village come the morning as the best of it will fall at night. The sun was out a fair bit down there today which doesn't bode well for accumulation. Night time is a different story. The showers usually penetrate much further east at night.
     
    #386 Snow Blowey, Jul 2, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  37. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I tend to disagree Verm. There simply haven't been many showers out this way.

    LAPS and GFS both think West & South Gippsland will get slammed tonight. Radar is finally starting to agree.
     
  38. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    A flood watch has been issued for the state's north east and heavy snowfalls are expected down to 1000 metres.

    [​IMG]
     
    #388 alpino, Jul 2, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. jackson96

    jackson96 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    It was snowing heavily and comfortably settling at around 1200m below Falls tonight and getting colder in line with predictions.
     
  40. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    I would expect another 5cm - 10cm today from Isolated falls in VIC (southern resorts should get 10cm).

    Snow guns should be firing for the good first half of next week which will see snowmaking areas really thrive I would imagine.
     
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    This is a predictions thread up to July 2nd. (not observations) maybe a new thread??
     
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 30th June - 2nd July

    Extend the dates? Predictions can still be made for today / tomorrow / Sunday which is this same system...
     
  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, anyone can change the dates. Hit the reply button and change the subject. See above ^^
     
  44. snow_fox

    snow_fox First Runs

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    Imagine if that warm north west moisture feed joins up with the cool south west feed to supply the moisture to the cold south westerly winds! pressure would be an issue around the high though wouldnt it?
     
  45. snow_fox

    snow_fox First Runs

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    So is that all out of this system?
     
  46. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is a predictions thread, it's up to you to say...... [​IMG]
     
    #396 Sandy, Jul 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    That NW feed over WA is an upper level system, so it doesn't matter if there is a surface high in the way (that high may not occur at, for example, the 500hPa height (roughly 5500 metres). If that meets up with the SW feed, showers could continue. But...

    1. The low causing our SW feed is moving away as we speak,
    2. Things are already starting to warm up. Temps are back up to -0.3 at Buller, 0.0 at Baw Baw. If there were to be snow it would be above 1700 or 1800 metres.

    However, BoM are predicting snow showers until Tuesday as that high slips south and digs up some cold air. Explains how GFS predicts the 540 line moving east then pushing northwards...
     
    #397 ice_man, Jul 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  48. sawtell

    sawtell First Runs

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    helo all im a nub at reading weather charts.

    BUT the general jist is its going to rain at bawbaw tonight yes?

    and the cams are already showing brown patch's.

    last thing i want is to head up to a mud pit, as i cant imagine 30cms, lasting to long if they have an above zero night with rain!

    or am i completly wrong?
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Sawtell, I did post in the Baw Baw subforum, but I'll repeat here.

    Temp has just gone negative at the BoM station at Baw Baw. From my experience, negative at top = snow into village (even if the snow is a little wet).

    GFS, LAPS and MLAPS all believe the 850hPa temp (temperature at around 1500 metres) will be negative tomorrow morning. Temps look like turning around, with moisture to boot.