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Predictions 3rd-12th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Acav, Jun 18, 2011.

  1. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

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    A front looks likely to be arriving around this time, possibly with heavy snowfalls.
     
  2. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    do you have a map to reference?
     
  3. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Exten GFS shows it , must be true?
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    It's on snowatch*.

    *I dont visit snowatch.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Mod note: if you're going to put up a predictions thread, at least put up some compelling reasons. Eg charts, descriptions or otherwise.
    "A front arriving" is not sufficient.
     
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July


     
    #6 Stratus, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    With all due deference to the amphibian, just copying his predictions isn't a lot of help.
     
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    No futhure evidence required. If the Frog says it will happen, it will happen. As long as Exten GFs backs it up, this system is 100% goer. [​IMG]
     
    #8 Stratus, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Here is a map 372 hours out.

    [​IMG]

    Uploaded with ImageShack.us
     
    #9 Acav, Jun 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Wow that is whacked.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    IMO if I was to go on GFS alone, there is nothing to be exited about.
    But at 300+ hours out, those GFS charts will certainly change.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Still nothing here on GFS, IMO.
     
  13. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I disagree. Long range gfs is definitely showing something around these dates (at the moment), but obviously being this far out it doesn't really know what and it may turn into nothing.
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    High SW of perth... cold air injection ...
    but yeah its miles away...

    however i'll go and say that extended GFS is quite good at mapping high shape and postion.
    That high shape and position is excellent.
     
    #14 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    showing may 2000

    now
    IMO

    look at that high
     
    #15 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    This system has been mentioned on here on this year far too many times. May 2000 seems to have resembled every system this year according to some [​IMG]
     
    #16 Stratus, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    May 2000 is the holy grail.

    Everyone is looking for it but without the help of Doctor Jones, we may never find it again haha.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Stay on topic.
     
  19. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Sorry CC
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Big change in the charts since this morning.
    [​IMG]

    Still way to far out to call, IMO
     
    #20 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    umm CC it was like that this morning
    just saying
    thats why i wrote what I did
     
    #21 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Why are you even posting charts this far out? +324hrs, Please....totally meaningless.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    It's still very fluid around these dates. This morning's GFS is back to nothing, and now has a system coming through on the 1st.
    IMO.
     
  24. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I think we're clutching at straws given the large spacing of weather systems so far this season. Instead of being a couple of days apart we're getting systems a week or more apart. When we do get one it's been pretty big though [​IMG]
     
    #24 ice_man, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I don't see long range threads as a problem as long as they have some basis.

    I'm still liking this, this morning. Sure long range gfs can't get stable maps, but who would expect it to this far out. What is has been showing for a few days is action around these dates with no large blocking high, but space to move for a system to come through.
     
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I prefer to look at ACCESS G at +240hrs to get an idea of systems another 2 - 3 days out from that. Rather then looking at Extended GFS for those actual dates.

    IMO it looks fantastic this morning on AXS @ 240 for potential for the 3rd.
     
  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I agree. Looks to be a nice one brewing and the leading high looks to be moving on.
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    EC tells us its a well placed high.
    [​IMG]
     
    #28 Donza, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    NCEP ensemble is now fishing for something hereabouts, but can't hook the timing yet (note large difference between 00z and 12z runs). On form, any action will probably be later than modelled. Link not static. IMO and sundry other disclaimers.

    [​IMG]

    The present system was picked from 12 days out this way:
     
    #29 Gerg, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Why does that thing go to custard every second update. Someone should tell them.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Both EC and GFS are showing something coming through on the 2nd of July, IMO
    I'll pick this thread as I suspect it will slip a day or so.
    EC
    [​IMG]
    GFS
    [​IMG]

    I'm sure it's going to change over the next 240 hour though ...
     
    #31 Claude Cat, Jun 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Doubtful
     
    #32 Stratus, Jun 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    IMO ?
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    The high is in a perfect spot.
    beyond that..I have no idea.
     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I'm really net convunced about thus one.
     
  36. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    It has that look at about it going off CC's posted charts - the EC chart looks like it will be pushed south (or turn into a cut off) as the highs either side look too strong but still 240 hrs out, plenty can happen.....
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    This morning I am seeing quite a bit of trough activity around the start of these dates, and unfortunately quite a bit of rain damage as a result. LWT is very strong around this period, at the moment a node is just off us, hence WA copping a pounding, but this may shift in the coming days (this mornings run keeps it stationary over SW WA too long for my liking) and give us a better shot.

    Encouraging, I wouldnt be too worried about the trough/rain at +240 hours.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    concur.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    x2
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    EC looking a bit more conventional tonight, but GFS is a dogs breakfast, IMO

    [​IMG]

    Anything that was there for the 1st seems long gone.
     
    #40 Claude Cat, Jun 23, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    I don't like the looks of the dirty big high we are getting on the BOM 4 day forecast charts.
    Those things tend to bunk down for quite a while and send all the goods south.
    I hope I'm wrong.
     
  42. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    All of a bit of a mess at the moment, however there is still activity around these dates. Just have to wait for further clarification.
     
  43. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    This one will be interesting to watch and see exactly how it plays out as there are a lot of things at play that I think are messing with the models at the moment.

    If you look at the IO MSLP, you see a strong high SE of Africa that is being squeezed from 3 sides by Low Pressure Systems. There is a low on the Nth, South and West side of the high.

    It is an unusual setup and I dont think the models will get a handle on things for a few days yet.

    This could be one of those systems that delivers a nice surprise at 48 hours out IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #43 Katanga, Jun 23, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    frog seems quite bullish on these dates from today's forecast. Up to 50cm in the forecast window IIRC
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Hope he's as accurate as the last system.
     
  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    [​IMG]
     
    #46 smitty484, Jun 23, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    He is trying to catch up after the last effort. He predicted 25 and we got 75cm so if he can score 50 out of this one, he is back on par haha
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    AXS looking very ugly this morning. A couple of days of warm N winds followed by 3 days of 20-40mm of rain each day. This will change but it doesnt look good. It looks a bit like what we had most of the summer in the SE with troughy conditions. Good for floods, bad for snow.
     
  49. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Yes looks messy warm and wet.. Hopefully it changes for the better
     
  50. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-5th July

    Looks like the maps are a bit whacked at the moment passed the 30th. Nothing new with that. I can see the potential for what frog was talking about with a cut off scenario on AXS and a little less on GFS IMO.