Predictions 3rd-12th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Acav, Jun 18, 2011.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Hmmm I wasnt convinced that the moisture would be there, but looking at the tail of the low hitting Albany in WA, there seems to be a fair bit of rain in it. The WV loop looks pretty good too (some very cool Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves forming on the western edge too [​IMG] ) http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&img=sat_wv_bw
     
    #301 trappers, Jul 3, 2011
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  2. effinbigmeals

    effinbigmeals Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    I'm in for 45cm at Falls Creek by Thursday morning. IMO
    Thursday the pick of the days skiing in terms of snow quality.
    Ruined castle and Scotts to open on Friday or Saturday which much hoo-hah about how good it is for the school holiday guests.
     
  3. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #303 trappers, Jul 3, 2011
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  4. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Nice sat. loop images.
    Yes you can see the instability, does look like waves peeling off it.
     
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    BOM update - be warned, snow porn about to be posted........

    [​IMG]
     
    #305 FourSquare04, Jul 3, 2011
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  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    [​IMG] come west young front
     
    #306 dawooduck, Jul 3, 2011
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  7. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    That's HOT

    IMO

    But Pressure is still high

    IMO
     
  8. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    NSW BOM now saying Heavy Snow - Mon, Tues, Wed, Thurs and cold.
    All lifts by the end of the week at Perisher and some fantastic skiing.....
     
  9. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Where is the updated NSW forecast ?
     
  10. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    ACCESSR looks good [​IMG]

    Rain turning to snow around 7am for Vic....

    Then 10-20cms Monday
    Then 10-20cms Tuesday

    IMO
     
    #310 skiflat, Jul 3, 2011
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  11. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Wednesdays front looking very good now. Pressure lower and coming through stronger.

    Charts still on and off about what we'll see at the tail end of this system (Friday). Tonights GFS has maybe a 5cm follow through front, but pressure has been upped for this one. Lots can change though, still about 5 days out.
     
  12. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    A little lesson in model performance vs prediction horizon:
    [​IMG]

    EC had the right basic idea at 10 days, but didn't get close on the details until 5 days out. That is pretty typical performance for this model IMO.
     
    #312 Gerg, Jul 3, 2011
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  13. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Yep, main event Wednesday night. Just coming up on -R now. Or Wednesday arvo on EC ???
     
    #313 Gerg, Jul 3, 2011
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  14. jontsy

    jontsy Hard Yards

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    #314 jontsy, Jul 4, 2011
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  15. effinbigmeals

    effinbigmeals Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    20-30mm rainfall predictions pretty spot on
    nice prediction
    awaiting real snow now
    Will be interesting what reported totals are in the next few days
     
    #315 effinbigmeals, Jul 4, 2011
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  16. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #316 skiflat, Jul 4, 2011
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  17. FlintSnowGear

    FlintSnowGear First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Weather Channel says Snow in the Blue Mountains [​IMG] time to rug up if unlucky and not in the mountains
     
    #317 FlintSnowGear, Jul 4, 2011
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  18. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Looking at the satellite is the cloud spearing in from the NW (Broome) likely to inject any additional moisture or is the ridge of high pressure going to cut that off from having any impact?
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Not sure, could be a little too far north, IMO
     
    #319 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2011
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    9am GFS run has certainly ramped up the moisture. IMO it's probably over the top (again).

    [​IMG]
     
    #320 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2011
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  21. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    WOW - NSW is going to do very well out of this!

    VIC nicely as well

    IGFSsO
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Stay on topic - predictions only.
     
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July


    ACCESSR has updated for the PM

    Buller:
    15-20cms in the next 24 hours
    5-10cms the 24 hrs following
    10-25cms in the 24 hours following that

    IMO

     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Double that for Perisher
    IMO
     
    #324 Donza, Jul 4, 2011
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  25. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    ^^ Concur IMO

    NSW looks like it will get slammed!

    IMO
     
  26. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Wow, some people are carrying some Wood for Snowrunna. As I mentioned in the epic thread, Snowrunna is my brother from another mother. I taught him everything he thinks he knows HAHA.

    He had been using my computer and Bigpond account when staying with me a few months back to have a crack at predictions. I will try to get him to pay you all a visist next time I talk to him.

    Back on topic, I am sticking with my prediction of 103cm at spencers by Thursday.
     
  27. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Sandy, I know we are flogging a dead horse but what I was pointing out was that WZ was showing troughs in the same position for the 3 days mentioned earlier. This to me just seemed like them having a bet each way at the time rather than putting a solid forcast out like the BoM 4 day chart.

    Anyway, its all good my friend.
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    WZ were showing three DIFFERENT troughs, which by pure coincidence, happened to be it the same place as the previous one, on three consecutive days.
     
    #328 Sandy, Jul 4, 2011
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  29. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    [​IMG]

    Wednesdays front is looking sensational.

    Fridays front still on the cards, but pressure will be vary high. It may only favour southern Vic resorts.
     
    #329 Stratus, Jul 4, 2011
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  30. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    The Wed front seems to be the one we were liking for the following system next week.

    On Friday, we had 4 lows behind the trailing high but one of these lows seems to have snuck under the trailer and is now due to hit us Wed.

    The Friday low looks to be the second low to sneak under the trailer from next weeks system.

    NSW should do better than Vic earlier on over the coming week but Fridays front may catch them back up IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #330 Katanga, Jul 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Also loving the double low setup under the Vic/Adl border which is driving some very cold air over the region. Snow in the Blueys again this week IMO.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    GFS looks simply amazing for Thursday...

    but i'll say this it worries me a bit being introduced by a tasman low
     
  33. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    I like the the look of the cloud building up on the SW side of the sat pick.

    This should be the Wed front which should deliver some real goodness. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #333 Katanga, Jul 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Just saw the ABC weather forecast and it looked like the next BIG front will hit about 4 - 5am tomorrow morning so expect some nukage on the cams then....
     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    For the record, 30mm of Rain at Falls and 40mm of rain at Hotham before it started snowing today. Seems on par with some predictions here.

    ACCESS G downgrading the rest of this week IMO, but I dont think ACCESS G was ever really a strong model with this system.
     
  36. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Wednesday night remains on track IMO:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=SH&model=G

    Then maybe something on the weekend. Was never a 1m system IMO, despite standard weather forum hype.

    Most interesting thing in that -G animation is the static high. WIll be 14 days by the time it moves. Can only recall seeing that once before (?2 seasons ago), high then much further east IIRC.
     
    #336 Gerg, Jul 4, 2011
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    And yet GFS has increased the predicted moisture levels another notch IMO.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    I reckon it will go close to a metre...at perisher
    from now....
    perisher will IMO
    20cm tonight...25cm tommorrow then 10 till next change
    then next change 40cm..easy
    then another few cm in SW stream
     
  39. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    I am thinking along the same lines Donza. I had predicted Friday that Spencers would be 103cm by Thursday which is still likely but i doubt they will be doing any measuring Thursday so I will update this to 140cm at spencers by the end of this system IMO.
     
  40. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    I was (and still am) expecting about half of that for Hotham/Falls. ACCESS G has almost given up on Friday's front at this stage, in comparison to GFS.

    Still uncertain how this system will finish up.
     
    #340 Stratus, Jul 4, 2011
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  41. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    The radar is still showing a nice NW slide on the rainbands moving across so Falls should do very well thanks to the Kiewa Funnel over the next 12 hours IMO.

    I wont mind so much if the Friday front dies and helps to move the trailer on a bit quicker to allow the following system to move in and hit us a bit earlier before it runs out of puff.
     
  42. Caveman

    Caveman Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Claude cat I hereby award you the Razzie for weather prediction! Please take the time to look back on your posts around this system. My gosh! Tim Bailey called and he wants his chart pointer back!
     
  43. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    [​IMG]

    I guess everybody is just a little happy and excited, it's always a good read, regardless, gets the pulse pumping [​IMG]
     
    #343 Billy_Buttons, Jul 4, 2011
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  44. jontsy

    jontsy Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Nearly perfect prediction
     
    #344 jontsy, Jul 4, 2011
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Ok, stay on topic.... [​IMG]
     
    #345 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2011
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  46. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-9th July

    Something to think about. BoM have Perisher forecast as heavy snow. But the chance of any RAIN is 90%. It doesn't say precipitation, it's rain - liquid. Temps are sub zero so I'd say (my prediction) the chance of rain is zero %. If we are going to have some meteorology lets be a little more scientific about it!... W
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9am GFS says there's still plenty to come, IMO

    [​IMG]

    Sunday afternoon, evening looks terrific
    [​IMG]

    EC suggesting snowfalls until Tuesday next week.
    (IMO)
    I have extended the date range for this system till the 12th.
     
    #347 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO this has the feel of a system in August 2004 (that I can remember) where it snowed every day for about a week. Not massive quantities, but solid contributions over a week which resulted in enormous accumulations at the end of it.
     
  49. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well i know its only a snow forecasting chart , but sheesh , ive never seen dark red , let alone dark blue colour on the charts for Australia before,
    Showing dark blue in areas around jagungal on Thursday ( 80-100cm)
    [​IMG]
     
    #349 skimax, Jul 5, 2011
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  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    want me to post that chart? I have saved GASP [​IMG]
    this is colder.
    It was 02.08.04- 14.08.04
    it snowed alot ...then went a bit warm in a westerly stream.
    then it went SW again. Buller got goods at the end.
    I was down for that two weeks. In Vicco and NSW.
     
    #350 Donza, Jul 5, 2011
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