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Predictions 3rd-12th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Acav, Jun 18, 2011.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS says its true- almost.

    but 50cm in mm forecast at 24 hours to 800 metres is 80-100cm at 1650 IMO
     
    #351 Donza, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    All models indicating the little blue line moving away ??? Seriously?
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    what you mean?
    when?
     
    #353 Donza, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    540 line?
    IMO models showing it's cold, cold right through until Tuesday next week.
     
    #354 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2011
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  5. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yes sorry 540 line, showing that for most days the 540 line is moving southwards.... I don't see that happened really!!
    IMO
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The GFS polar jet stream for Sunday looks terrific, IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #356 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    LWT looks so frikken strong too for end of this date range...but just a wee bit too east...
     
  8. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    PS - I observe that this system is delivering and will deliver just like last years "season changer" when we managed to get +60cm in Falls for the week IMO
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #358 steeps, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #359 skiflat, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  10. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    For completeness, through to the outcome:

    [​IMG]
     
    #360 Gerg, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Similar strong jet convergence progged on -G. What implications?

    [​IMG]
     
    #361 Gerg, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Well it will be cold [​IMG]

    It just looks a bit too much into the tasman. The system that is.

    But give it time. Might sneak a bit closer to coast.
     
    #362 Donza, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXS - R is out for the next 3 days.

    Woo. Hoo.

    [​IMG]
     
    #363 Stratus, Jul 5, 2011
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  14. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    You beat me to in Fact boy

    I was waiting for the VIC update for more detail...

    Wed/Thurs looks very nice IMO
     
  15. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    I'm thinking that's probly fair. imo.
     
    #365 Gerg, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    100 cm come to me baby
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    If the GFS 3pm run is right, we're going to see some very low level snow on Sunday night, IMO

    [​IMG]


    Look at that 528 line.
     
    #367 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Steps first, then shrubs, then chair. Once the chair goes its on.
     
  19. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Yea, as CC pointed out looks like another front will come through Sunday night/Monday Morning down to 1200-1000m, probably another 10-15cm from that, looking like good skiing for the prediction sunny and less windy weather next week
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Monday next week looks cold. BRRRR. IMO
    Tasmania could have snow down to 200m, perhaps lower.

    [​IMG]
     
    #370 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Cannot believe how long this high is going to stall for. That will be 7 days if comes off as predicted. Cannot remember seeing anything like this since I really started following the charts a few years back.
     
  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    I cannot see this ATM. Though fickle to predict, pressure looks too high.
     
    #372 Stratus, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    No, it'll be nearer two weeks. High moved into approximately it's current position on 1 July.
     
    #373 Gerg, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its been there since september last year [​IMG]

    though seriously. i'm loving it
     
    #374 Donza, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    10-15 looks likely
    but epic dry stuff...
     
    #375 Donza, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  26. PaddyWri

    PaddyWri First Runs

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    buller is forecasting flurries on wendesday???

    cant be right IMO
    front will surely smack straight into buller Wednesday day, if not night
     
  27. dopestylesss

    dopestylesss Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Thredbo AWS is showing a N wind direction? must be someting wierd going on or am I retarded?




    #### Moderator note ####

    This is the predictions thread.

    Observation go in the observations thread.
     
  28. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    #378 Bilza_Skis, Jul 5, 2011
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  29. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Anyone want to make a call on windspeed on thursday? Thinking about heading done for a day trip from Sydney, but not if everything is closed..
     
  30. effinbigmeals

    effinbigmeals Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    20-30km/h in vic
    imo
     
  31. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    -G is now looking for a repeat of the Wednesday night dump for Sunday night:

    [​IMG]

    I now fear for my 177cm. [​IMG] Prediction is a seriously tough game.

    EDIT: Update saves my bacon ... for now [​IMG]
     
    #381 Gerg, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    EC is a little more conservative for Sunday, YN going for around 10cm; EC not quite as cold as the other models, IMO.
     
  33. LaNeige

    LaNeige One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    why is this predictions thread appearing as Observations: 3rd to 9th July in the forum list? Or is it just me?
     
  34. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Off topic
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO sunday will be somewhere between AXS GFS and EC.
    It depends where that low is. AXS has it closer near near bass straight gabo island, GFS has it further towards NZ. Looking at the LWT that looks likely
    I reckon spencers will give 200cm a nudge by next thursday
     
  36. the_guru

    the_guru One of Us

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    I think I'm off topic. Should I be in the observation thread [​IMG]
    Just ski it! [​IMG]
     
    #386 the_guru, Jul 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Models have dropped sunday now.
    Which doesn't surprise me considering the placement of the LWT.

    off topic but NZ will get smashed ...like epically.

    IMO

     
  38. effinbigmeals

    effinbigmeals Hard Yards

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    45cm by Thursday morning for VIC looking a pathetic prediction! [​IMG] even 40-70cm looking shakey now. IMO
    Good to be on the right side of being wrong though

    Fair chance summit will open by the end of this cycle at Falls
    Pretty much all lifts and terrain at all resorts by next week I reckon
     
    #388 effinbigmeals, Jul 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXSR just out a few minutes ago, shows 25mm - 35mm of precipitation to fall over the Alps this afternoon and tonight. That's still to come!

    Convert that into cm's and make of it what you will.

    [​IMG]
     
    #389 Stratus, Jul 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Sat pick showing a cloudband moving in from central Aust. Probably too far Nth for the Snowies but should deliver some white stuff for the Central Tablelands in combination with the approaching front. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #390 Katanga, Jul 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    -R and -A now showing a slight downgrade for tonight IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #391 Gerg, Jul 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Friday's / Saturdays front still being shown on Access - R, though pressure looks far to high for any decent falls (5-8cm IMO). GFS has given up on this front, with only a cm or two by the looks of things.

    Sunday / Monday's front still being shown on GFS, again, high pressure will restrict falls to 5cm IMO.
     
  43. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Next front is approaching Hotham and looks to have a nice NW to SE slide so falls should do well again tonight.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has also given up for Sunday, IMO
     
    #394 Claude Cat, Jul 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Actually I got this wrong, YR (EC) is still showing around 10cm for Sunday and a bit more Monday.
    IMO
     
  46. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looking great for tonight and tomorrow for some big totals. I would not be suprised if Perisher were calling 50-60cm in 24 hours to 6am. The radar backs this up. IMO
     
  47. newxr

    newxr First Runs

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    Looking at the radar - Perisher/Thredbo likely to record another 10cm at least in the 90 minutes from 9.30pm to 11pm. This will take Perisher above the 100cm mark for the last three days
    IMO
     
  48. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    I am going to predict that Friday/Saturday will see 10-15cm and Sunday/Monday will see 15-25cm, might be a little bit ambitious but with warmer water around the bight I reckon we will probably get there, hopefully
     
  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Bang on the money loweeee - 60cm in the last 24 hrs. Hopefully u can get up there to sample the goods.
     
    #399 FourSquare04, Jul 7, 2011
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic - predictions not observations.