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Predictions 3rd-12th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Acav, Jun 18, 2011.

  1. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

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    IMO snowfalls from this system will start to decrease, most of the major snowfalls have passed from this system.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sunday / Monday still looking good for another 15 to 20cm, IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #402 Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    CC snow till friday evening -tuesday going off GFS
    could be another 30cm 72 hour period for perisher.
    embedded SW stream

    LWT amplfying mid tasman.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Concur.
    9am GFS has down graded a little, but I can still see up 25cm still in this system, IMO
    SW stream should be a little better for Buller and Baw Baw.
     
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well done for those who predicted the big totals for this system!!

    Friday/Saturday's front still looks pretty much dead.

    I still only see 5cm in it for Sunday/ Monday's front, maybe a little better for Buller as I think the pressure will be higher then anticipated.
     
  6. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    CC, what do the next few maps look like? The action off WA has me nervous.
     
    #406 SNJ, Jul 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS shows a mid - trough coming though on the 17th but nothing too significant. Interestingly GFS is still showing a freeze level of 1600m, so it might not be so bad, IMO. Still a little way off so I wouldn't get too concerned.
    We're really outside the boundaries of this prediction thread, but if this firms up we can discuss elsewhere.

    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/posts/1364294&page=1
     
    #407 Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  8. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Fair enough. It is 120+hrs out but never like to see lots of moisture in that region at this time of year. Will keep an eye on it and poke my head nto the other thread.
     
  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This afternoons AXS - R is now updated:

    Next cold front to come through just after midnight Friday. Looks cold and dry, as the pressure is not forecast to dip below 1020hPa, which is way to high. Even Buller will struggle to get 5cm IMO.

    This stalling high has been great, thankyou very much, but hurry along please as you are beginning to hang around like a dirty smell. Get a move on you old bag. Let the next system through [​IMG] Thanks
     
    #409 Stratus, Jul 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    this next front looks ok on sat pic...
     
  11. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    You the man Donz. Called it, and boy did it come [​IMG] Fine form IMOO
     
    #411 snowblowa, Jul 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Latest sat loop (11pm) has an interesting front in the Southern Ocean tracking NE very nicely...but looks like it's too far east at this stage to give other than a small drop in the tail end of it. IMO.

    Still, better than nothing!

    Will be interesting to observe in the morning.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Yes, a little sting in the tail on Sunday, IMO

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps 10cm, Buller and Baw Baw should get a bit back on what they missed out on.
     
    #413 Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    Well done Donza, good call.

    I predict the weekend will be awesome skiing and a tad windy on Sunday but maybe not too much.
     
  15. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

     
    #415 skimax, Jul 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions 3rd-12th July

    That was for the 3-5th, which indeed was completely dead.
    [​IMG]
     
    #416 Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Yep, top call (unlike YT...)
     
    #417 Gerg, Jul 8, 2011
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still showing 10-20cm through to Monday, IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #418 Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    AXS-R doesn't like it all.

    Going off the sat pic neither do I.
    yr.no still does though
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, it's dried out today so it's a little hard to see where it's coming from - perhaps it's that front crossing the NW corner of Tasmania right now.
     
    #420 Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Claude have you checked the pressure for Sunday / Monday?
     
  22. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    The Sat Loop is showing a cloudband passing NW of Tas as CC mentioned above, but it seems to be fading fast.

    Its a pitty we will miss out on the speckled under Tas but at least the Kiwi's will make good use of it IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #422 Katanga, Jul 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    NZ will get smashed from that cold pool, IMOO.