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Predictions 4th -7th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by kiter, May 24, 2009.

  1. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    I'm pretty sure this one is a good chance of actually happening >What do the gurus here make of it this far out?
     
  2. scotsblizz

    scotsblizz First Runs

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    well i'm no guru, but looking at the latest weatherzone charts, they are showing anything between 20-30mm over this period. i'm not quite sure what the conversion rate is from rain to snow, but yeh this system looks pretty interesting atm.

    found a conversion site:
    http://www.cactus2000.de/uk/unit/masssno...orem=30&stell=5
     
    #2 scotsblizz, May 24, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Generally 1 MM of rain = 1 cm of snow. That system is developing well ATM but its 2 weeks away still.
     
  4. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    Yes, generally 1mm rain = 1cm snow +- 50%, depending on things like temperature, humidity, etc.

    Of course there is another factor.

    Let's say those variables would produce 1cm of snow from 1mm of precipitation., and the ground is well below 0 degrees.
    However, 30mm of precipitation will not produce 30cm of snow on the ground, but maybe 25cm. Any ideas as to why that would be??
     
  5. Craig D.

    Craig D. Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    Compaction of the fresh snow?
     
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    Yes, exactly.

    If it would produce 1cm of snow from 1mm of precipitation, then the top 10cm(approx) of a square metre of snow would weight 10kg. That's quite a weight on freshly fallen snow.

    So the conversion factor is quite a bit more complicated than just 1mm rain = 1cm snow.
     
  7. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    stay on topic
     
  8. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    [​IMG]
     
    #8 luvthabumps, May 24, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. scotsblizz

    scotsblizz First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    yeh seriously people lets here your thoughts on this system
     
  10. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    Extended GFS has the low sitting north west of Tasmania then moving over Victoria. If that came off it could be huge but we all know how much we can rely on charts projecting 336 hours out.

    Personally, I think it's going to snow. I don't have the knowledge to predict anything more than that, unfortunately
     
  11. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    the charts have been sloshing backwards and forwards for the past week with these and preceding dates.
    Nothing is firming up until 3 to 5 days.
    It's too far out and calling anything from here would be guessing.

    2 comments
    1) I tend to be more optimistic about moisture laden low pressure systems at this time of the year
    2)based on what's been happening this year so far when you look at the charts tomorrow there might be a big fat dry high where the potential snow system was,.
     
    #11 MisterMxyzptlk, May 24, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  12. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    So far it's been pretty consistent. Weatherzone's long range forecast and GFS have both suggested a system around this date. Yayyy!!!

    Now an update from Weatherzone.
    That's bloody well right. Look at the blocking highs we've been having!

    4 June to 8 June was suggested two weeks ago, then disappeared last week. Now it's back.

    I know it's a long way out, but it certainly looks promising.
     
    #12 ice_man, May 24, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  13. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    ditto
     
    #13 MisterMxyzptlk, May 24, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 4th -7th June

    Looking promising, however a long way out yet, strong low, but the intense high is looking very strong also, the only good thing IMHO is that the low is progged as sitting very high coming in over the end of the week leading up to opening... could produce something for over the weekend.... [​IMG]
     
    #14 keefy, May 24, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    methinks perhaps i stuck my neck out too far this far out.Perhaps i was just wishing
     
  16. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Don't rule it out just yet - still a long way to go.

    Based on my couple of years of watching the charts and watching them develop and change as potential systems draw near I think we still may get some snow on opening weekend. Not a lot, but some.

    Ooo and Frog thinks so too: Le Frogs forecast
     
    #16 wangster, May 25, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  17. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Fizzer! Oh well
     
  18. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic, silly comments
     
  19. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

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    New to forum,.. love jindy and the swow. Let us pray for heaps of the white stuff.
     
  20. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    Its funny how from only observing these forums in the last couple of years that many people seem to predict a doomed season in may/june before anything even happens!
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah agreed. Easy access to online models nowadays plus a crappy season in 2006 makes everyone a pessimist.

    I'm not giving up on these dates yet.
    I still think something is going to happen. The last dump we got. Well nothing was great at 266 hours out.
     
    #21 Donza, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keep it on topic.
     
  23. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haha I was only joking. Of course the season isn't over.
     
  24. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe I need to include these [​IMG] or keep my mouth (hands?) shut.
     
    #24 smitty484, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You needn't shut your mouth as long as it's on topic.

    You can even make it funny as long as it's on topic and relevant. [​IMG]
     
    #25 Sandy, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] And for people that are worried, last seasn was a great example of a season that looked shot, but which turned out really good.
     
    #26 smitty484, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. SteelyDan

    SteelyDan First Runs

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    IMHO the 3rd-4th is still a chance for 'something' on the peaks - nothing substantial, but 'something' (if you get my vibe). Not likely to be much of a base contributor in the long run though.

    Amen Smitty. I was at Hotham last year when that first reasonable dump hit in mid-July. First half of the week was woeful - the second was some of the best skiing I've ever had in Oz (on nearly zilch base!). Way too early to write this one off. If you book it, it will come.
     
    #27 SteelyDan, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  28. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Dammit! It disappeared off GFS and the long range forecast! Long range forecast looks dismal for Southern Tablelands (NSW ski fields) and Northeast Vic . Then again... the forecast always looks dismal for NE Vic. And they still get rain...

    Well what a post. I ended up making absolutely no solid conclusion! [​IMG]
     
    #28 ice_man, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not at all. It seems to have got betterish on this run.
    All you need is this high to slow down over Perth. That low isn't that far south of tassie
    I'm still feeling it.
    I reckon next
     
    #29 Donza, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  30. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    latest GFS charts look interesting for early next week! 3rd onwards hopefully somthing dunno if it will be the snow type though. Still plenty of time to hopefully get better [​IMG]
     
    #30 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 26, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Your'e right guys. Precip looks more likely on this run. No 540 line near Vic, but maybe the lack of cloud cover will keep things cool. And yes, it has time to get better. We should wait a few more days.
     
  32. Creekside Bum

    Creekside Bum Hard Yards

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    long time reader, part time poster. One thing I have learned form these forums is that the models flip flop two weeks to a week out between all types of scenarios. They come into agreement about 4 days or so out. Also, may be just me, but the degree in which the scenarios vary seems to be greater in early season. I don't mean variation between models, rather the variation between forecasts for same day, same model, on the next run.
    So to keep on topic, June 4 -7 could still produce a nice starter, not much of a shift in synoptic situation and it will be all smiles.
     
  33. SteelyDan

    SteelyDan First Runs

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    Man, I never should have opened my mouth!

    Creekside's right, this could still turn out alright. I'll still be watching this one all the way. But if I had to put money on it...
     
    #33 SteelyDan, May 27, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'll get interested once EC shows something - at this stage there's not a lot to look at.
     
  35. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    GFS is only showing something good for the 11th which at 2 weeks out would be pretty unreliable.
    At least it will start to get colder in the next few days.
     
  36. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Definately feels cooler today here in Jindy than the last week or 2. I n my opinion they should be able to make a fair bit of snow over the next few nights.
     
  37. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    GFS looks good with a rain system dropping in later next week. EC has the same. Good rainfall wise but the system is coming from the wrong direction for snow!!! 540 line looks close to Vic though...
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for you though ice_man. I dont trust it just yet, it looks pretty sketchy.
     
  39. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    frog forecasts 5-10cm of wet snow above around 1650-1700m on the 4th
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    That will change 5 times before the 4th.
    Every day I look it changes.
     
    #40 Donza, May 28, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  41. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    too shay [​IMG]
     
    #41 SnowBound, May 28, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    GFS has brought back the snow... but now on Monday 8th. IMO that will disappear again...
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS is a dogs breakfast anything past 180 hours IMHO.
    See a wise old timer once said a good low down south...a low up north and youre in action.
    I'm still feeling it.
     
    #43 Donza, May 28, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    This one's now looking like yet another NZ dump, about the 4-5th:

    [​IMG]
     
    #44 Gerg, May 28, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    GFS emsemble seems pretty confident that a substantial long wave crosses SE Aus about the 10th (look at the cluster of light blue lines).

    [​IMG]

    Is this the first realistic prospect for the season proper? (April don't count...)

    G.
     
    #45 Gerg, May 28, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The spaghetti Western eh Gerg. Those models worked a treat last year.

    maybe I'm simplistic about the way I look at models at 4 days away, then try to construct what I think will happen each run after that.
    The way I see it the high won't ridge over this next change. Rather it will stall and squeeze a burst of cold air up.
     
  47. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Late May/early April is always the hardest to pick with the seasonal change from blocking highs to a more winter pattern.
     
    #47 The Frog, May 28, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Compare these two models.
    tell me which one looks more realistic? To me GFS seems all over the place.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #48 Donza, May 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I generally watch EC and if it shows something interesting, then I look at GFS ...
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah I've started doing that.
    GFS seems to be like Christiano Ronaldo, great at shots from outside the box..but goes missing spectaculary every so often.
     
    #50 Donza, May 29, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013