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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by kiter, May 24, 2009.
Looking good. Fingers crossed.
15-20cm to 1400
10-15cm to 1600
30+cm to 1000
Looks uber good.
Plus the LWT is great hey?
IMO, yes, sunday is when winter begins, yes, sunday to wednesday we will get our season starter snow base, I don't know about 50cm +, IMO with snowmaking we will end up with a good 30cm compacted base to 1600m in all the resorts, with that down to 15-20cm at the base of Thredbo.
Cold Temps are looking good at this stage!
Looks great but keeping a lid on it at this stage!
Hoping for an upgrade in models in the morning!!!
Keep those charts coming donza!!
Not trying to offend anyone but just an example of how variable the weather is, particularly these early season systems, this was the frogs call this morning
"We should see a mixture of showers, rain, sleet and snow over the next two weeks with
more wet than white stuff likely."
SO lets not get our hopes up yet.
But things are looking much better on this arvos runs with a prolonged period of moisture and cold temps.
I am sure Frogs forecast will change over the next few days. He uses the same charts everyone here does and I would have said the same thing a few days ago.
BOM Sat Pic shows a cold pool with moisture pushing NE below WA. That could be our baby.
Hopefully the charts look optimistic tomorrow
*keeps praying to the snow gods*
It is definitely starting to look the goods, im just hoping theres not a massive downgrade in the morning but the systems are starting to look like they are agreeing for the dates.
Cmonnnn season starter - ill be down at Perisher from Monday through Wednesday next week so will definitely try and keep the observations thread updated.
he lurks and gets all his best stuff from here
still in there with a nice chance of white on the ground over QBW
guys i will be in oberon on sunday. Any chance of snow up at shooters hill or mt trickett area?
My pediction is that like 8 out of 10 weekend's it wont snow much and like 19 out of 20 opening weekends there will be no lifts open.
good news is good
am i allowed to get excited?
Still looking good for snow from saturday afternoon through to at least tuesday. Three days of snowy weather typically means decent accumulation, even if there isn't huge amounts of moisture on the charts. I'm going for 30-50cm by mid next week. Probably not a whole lot settling below 1500m but up high should be good.
Early the following week is looking sensational on this mornings run but there's no point getting to excited just yet given the way the long range forecasts are changing. Although i think i will try and get all my upcoming work appointments out of the way next week so i can get down there if it comes off.
I'm going for a bit more.
Couple of reasons.
The first low is wet. Its not uber cold. Though its cold enough to leave a fair bit of cold air in its wake.
So it won't stop snowing.
When the second bigger front arrives it will be on.
1000 metres is pretty low and going off the thickness progged on GFS thats what I reckon it will be .
Check the sat pic for that lovely cold air lurking south of WA. Thats only the first low sucking it up.
We should probably change these dates- I dont see anything falling as snow until very late on the 7th and even then I think it will be very marginal for NSW. On a side note next week does look awfully good on this mornings run.
Agreed. All the action is around the 8 & 9th.
I think this is something the average chart watcher often misses,just because the 5400 sags away the day after a cold front hits.Sure it warms up a bit, bit usually stays cold enough for snow and minimal melt.
Agreed. There seems to be a basic misunderstanding of what contour lines represent. ie - a 5400 line marks thickness of 5400m. Any point between 5400 contour and the 5440 contour is greater than 5400m but less than 5440m.
In the case of Sundays chart the shape of the 544 contour compared to the 540 contour indicates there is a decent sized pool of cold air over the mountains. The thickness isn't below 5400m but it's probably not far off.
Yeah i've seen it dump in Jindy in a 540-544 scenario.
Remember the year all the power went off? I think it was July 2005?. I was watching that system like a hawk. It wasn't uber cold. Though it was moist.
I remember ringing a mate who was stuck in a two hour traffic jam coming of the hill on the friday.
I was like..
"hey mate is it raining"?
"nah mate...its dumping..started about 2pm and now cars are off the road everywhere"...
later call. 8pm.
"hey mate. how the trip home?"
"well i'm near Cooma and its still dumping"
In fact it snowed to near Williamsdale.
Next morning I drove down. It was solidly white from Cooma.
Not my video.--but you get the drift
540 line...hadn't even reached the Victorian alps. Though there must have been little blobs of cold air.
That'd be Hobber's video
Remember that one well. Was driving down on the friday night. Flakes started at Michelago - some of the biggest flakes i've seen here. Snow settling from there onwards. Carnage on the highway. Heavy sticky snow settling everywhere. Trees came down all over the place under snow load. Then my mate nearly got crushed to death by a falling branch at the picnic area adjacent to the old Perisher park entry - missed it by about 30 seconds.
I'd be happy with some of that next week!
I'm like you Blowey, if I get too much more excited I'll be starting to roster myself out of work in anticipation!!
at least I can understand that post
It's a fine balance between maintaining a hobby, and a source of income to enable you to enjoy that hobby. I usually try to build up credits in the weeks leading up to the season so i can slack off when it's worth skiing.
It can snow at temperatures above zero it depends a bit on the humidity and how cold the air is where the snow has formed
Looking at the latest bom forcast for canberra they have a little rain and 12c for sunday with 11c forecast for monday to wednesday, this usually means snow. I predict 30cm by wednesday afternoon as I have already skied this year in May I need it to snow as I am going crazy.
I had a pretty epic adventure that storm. We left on the day when it was snowing cats and dogs and were getting a car service down... anyway about 1min into the drive the van didnt break and we went skidding into the car in front and the car behind us (with the rest of the group) went into the back of us... anyway we had to get different vehicles and the driver took like 3 hrs to get down to some small town (cant remember what it was called) and dropped us at a coles supermarket... we were left waiting there for about 5 hrs (after him tellling us he'd be back in about an hour) and by now it was probably 11 at night... we pretty much gave up on the fact that he was coming back for us and somehow met up with the rest of our group who were driven down by some other woman who had also dropped them and left... we walked around for a bit trying to find somewhere to stay the night and everywhere seem closed so we were all huddled under an awning outside a little apartment place but freezing cold as our shoes were soaked... we sent 2 people off to search more and they found hotel that was fully booked so they let us sleep in their bar... needless to say the next day when we made contact with our 2 drivers we were pretty furious with them... we sent the hotel a gift for their generosity...
all in all it was a pretty adventurous day which has turned away the friends of ours for whom it was their first time from skiing ever again.
Damn some people do it the hard way.
Its true though crew who would have been driving down for the 1st time would be way way out of their depth.
You wouldn't expect that much snow.(or snow at all).
GFS still looks on track, even sligthly more so on this arvos runs for some snow saturday night onwards.
Anyone noticing that the NSW BoM's forecast discussion doesn't seem to have changed much over the last few runs and says:
They are also predicting scattered snow showers down to 1400m Sunday. Am I missing something?
Yeah and there isn't even a thread about it in WZ forums.
i predict a "keep it on topic" is coming from the dark one.
I know I am very confused WZ said that snow level was going to drop dramatically but not until sun and only down to 1200m HMMMMM
1200 is pretty dramatic.
Thats snow usually down to 1000 or so.
Certainly seems that the cold weather is on the way with 12 in Melbourne on Tuesday. These systems seem to change day by day at the moment but the models are all pointing to snow from around Saturday night. Hopefully the southerly fetch hangs around for the week and has some moisture in it.
This non-rain event that is lolling by at the moment is actually something of an event.
Hopefully the snow will be similarly underestimated.
This could be very interesting for the Central and Northern Tablelands:
BoM has downgraded yet again, with any heavy precip over West Gippsland only. GFS still hanging in there.
It doesn't look as if the moisture will be there yet, but I'm guessing there's a surprise in store.
BOM forecasts off GASP and at the moment GASP is showing high pressure ridging in early next week. Me like GFS lot more.
GFS is looking good from sunday till thursday with cold temps and good moisture.At the current point time time i would say looking good for 50+ from this system
Don't worry about Gasp,it's a crock of you know what
Dreamer's model, always has been. Resolution isnt as good as EC/GFS either.
Gotta agree based on GFS today and will interesting to see the charts tomorrow. The front that is hitting WA is cold and a fair bit of moisture. Hopefully it retains some of this when it tracks east. The highs seem to be finally breaking down.
I love systems that get better and better.
I've been feeling this since day one
I agree! GFS is certainly looking good from sun on. Get the skis/boards ready winter is on the way
Its looking good from 10am saturday on
Yeah but imo sunday is looking like when the goods will arrive
So does this all mean that WZ was sort of on the right track?
They usally are
Sorry Sorry I got it wrong WZ predict snow sun 1500 snow mon 1200
woopy chook .Where ya gonna go skiing ?mt trickett! take some nice piccys of snow in a paddock?
Snow is good no matter where it is.
If that happened on a day I was not at work or skiing I would go and take photos of a paddock covered in snow!
Ski down a road at Mt Canobolas or Mt Kaputar. Slide down a grassy slope at Ben Lommond. It's all good. See snow on the Bluff at Warrumbungles. See snow on the three sisters. I just love snow and like seeing it in various places.
When i lived in Moree i could drive to queensland in 60 minutes and to the snow in 90 minutes. Can't do that in Sydney.