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Predictions 4th -7th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by kiter, May 24, 2009.

  1. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    How do you get from Mooree to the snow in 90 mins? I'm confused!
     
  2. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Ain't that the truth!
    Have been looking at the barometer readings from Adelaide and Hobart and they are both indicating FINALLY that the Highs are well on their way out...dropping nicely.

    Have to admit too that the sat loops from the past day look absolutely crazy! Everything seems to be spinning clockwise (L) based around three nodes stretching from NSW to SA to WA. Weird.

    Fingers crossed!
     
    #202 woggybot, Jun 3, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  3. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

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    Mt Kaputar National Park

    1510m old volcanic mountain. Probably be great for winter snowmaking with the interior's low humidity...
     
    #203 sir_rhyso, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  4. Anewts

    Anewts Addicted

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    Yeah was up Kaputar in March and very impressed by it. I wonder how much snow it sees a year. Would have to be the right system as i am sure it is often cold enough but lacks moisture.
     
  5. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    WZ and Smowatch still pessimistic about the moisture content. The system being from the SW will be drier but hopefully with all the moisture that has been around there will be a bit more in it. Certainly looking cold enough from next week.
     
  6. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I predict these fronts are approaching from the correct area to be seeded.
     
  7. scottspt

    scottspt Hard Yards

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    When I stop wearing shorts usually means the temperature is cold enough!

    Still in shorts at the minute, hopefully next week I'll have long pants on!
     
  8. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    From Sunday on will be long pants weather [​IMG]

    IMHO
     
    #208 wangster, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    'Mother nature will bring a timely dumping of snow this weekend to coincide with the official start to the ski season for 2009.
    Around 10 to 20cm of snow is likely on the peaks by Tuesday."

    ''Dumping" , are you serious ?? [​IMG]

    And another thing I always found so crazy to the point that I wanted to write to all the weatherman/women out there since I landed in Oz :
    ' It is absolutely freezing' they say, when outside is 13/14 DEGREES CELSIUS !! !!

    I love this Aussies ! [​IMG]
     
    #209 alpino, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic.
     
  11. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    In the latest NSW BOM state forecast they're predicting SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS for sat night and sunday.Beautiful words in anybodys language
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    good to see the BOM's woken up.
    Now the kiss of death has begun.
    Check the sat
    Double rotation
     
    #212 Donza, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  13. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Weatherzone upgraded their forecast this morning to 5-10cm down to 1200m on Sunday and Monday

    Donza's bones were onto something I think
     
  14. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    #214 wangster, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    OOhh I like those numbers Wang!!! [​IMG]
     
    #215 mick chopps, Jun 4, 2009
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  16. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Wed 10/06/2009 9cm Snow Min -6, Max -4 750m Strong to Light, SW/S/W [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #216 SnowBound, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Weatherzone updated their forecast to 10-20cm down to 1300m on Sunday.

    I think I may have to buy Donza a congratulatory beer for this one
     
  18. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    translation pls??
     
    #218 luvthabumps, Jun 4, 2009
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  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
    Sorry.
    The BOM sometimes get excited about systems that don't deliver.
    ie classic cold systems from the SW.
    I don't like them to be too excited.
    With the sat photo.
    There are two lows spinning hard in the bight, portland area.
    This wasn't supposed to happen.
    It will mean the winds will go a bit more west earlier.
     
    #219 Donza, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    Its full on Dynamic system.
    It could seriously puke.
     
    #220 Donza, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  21. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    and so with the two lows spinning and the wind changing earlier, does that just mean less prefrontal r@#n or does it also have some effect on the amount of moisture as well ( just trying to edumacate myself more [​IMG] )
     
    #221 luvthabumps, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    This has been well picked up by this forum. Many pundits were predicting snow days ago and the other sites (WZ & SW) did not pick up. SW is still only predicting small amounts for Sunday - Tuesday. WZ has come into line and will be interesting to see some further updates from BOM this evening.
    Will be nice on Sunday watching the first winter snow fall at last up at Perisher.
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    To be honest i'm not sure how it would affect moisture levels.
    Though its not really a case of pre frontal here...will be on sunday
    If you get a cold change with residual cold air its very beneficial to a strong change running truck and trailer so to speak.

    IMHO the 1st low will spin off SE and introduce SW stream over the mountains late tommorrow night..while it won't snow it will be drier and colder than the present north stream..(see how its sucking air towards it from the tropics).
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    and thus any moisture on saturday and sunday will fall as snow not rain???
     
    #224 mick chopps, Jun 4, 2009
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  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    It depends...maybe to 1600..maybe lower..its going to be very localised IMHO.
     
    #225 Donza, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    I think Snowatch has to be conservative in his outlooks. He is probably the most viewed snow forecasting site and cops a lot of flack when he calls it wrong...I mean when he is too optimistic. Nevertheless he may yet upgrade tomorrow morning.
     
    #226 themaninblack, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    forecast pressures aint that great
     
  28. choc

    choc One of Us

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    WZ latest update has upgraded again... up to 40cm Saturday-Monday.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's what's bugged me about this event all along.
     
    #229 Claude Cat, Jun 4, 2009
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  30. robbied

    robbied First Runs

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    Will Mt Buller get much/all of these predicted snowfalls?
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its is possible to dump off high pressure. Look at japan.
    Its the gradient that matters.
     
    #231 Donza, Jun 4, 2009
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  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GASP is going for some very cold air getting up into southern queensland mid next week. And moisture coming off the coast. Wouldn't come up that often and could see snow fall in some unlikley places. Mt Warning?
     
  33. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    i will be in oberon on sunday. Any chance of snow up in the higher parts guys?
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    If its not snowing it will be frikken cold.
    I reckon monday morning maybe with front...then later Tuesday with sustained cold air.
     
    #234 Donza, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  35. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I'm totally confused. It's looking cold enough, but the moisture won't be around, according to the models. Personally I believe a forecast more when it comes from a forecaster's mouth, as they have the experience and training to back up what they're saying.

    What effect could the upper level trough over Vic at the moment have on any precipitation? Humidity has been more typical of late spring than early winter. This must be buliding to something.
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it hangs around it could be a bonus. Will obviously push the temps up though. Im liking sunday/monday at the moment.
     
  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The best thing IMO is the westerly flow that will be maintained over the mountain between sunday and tuesday. That typically results in 5cm a day even if the air mass is dry.
     
    #237 Snow Blowey, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  38. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    if there's moisture and cold I'll do a run to the top and see.
    The old locals say it's never snowed ontop, but I can't see why not
     
    #238 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Not a sausage maybe a taste on monday .
     
  40. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

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    Off topic, but my grandad grew up in the shadow of mount warning in the early 1920's and he told me stories of snow not only on Mt Warning but in the valley as well.
     
    #240 sidetrack, Jun 4, 2009
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  41. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moderator's note:

    #### Deleted for abuse ####
     
  42. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

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  43. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    looking good from sunday onwards with very cold temps. I don't know why people are worried about the moisture levels based on the GFS it still looks good for 50+ cm.
    [​IMG]
     
    #243 mad4snow, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    thats funny, deleted for abuse in the weather thread! [​IMG] [​IMG]

    I wonder if this will get deleted for off topic! [​IMG]
     
    #244 cin, Jun 4, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic.
     
  46. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

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    sorry sandy he was rude.
     
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, he was.
     
  48. rodatthebay

    rodatthebay First Runs

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    Frog is still only tipping 5-15 for the whole event. This mornings model run still looks good especially Sun. I hope it delivers. I seem to remember a few false starts last year.
     
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If he goes low he can't lose. If we have a small fall he is right. If we get more he is wrong but the punters are happy because we got more than predicted.

    If he goes high and we don't get that much people get upset.
     
    #249 Snow Blowey, Jun 5, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  50. June daily watching

    June daily watching One of Us

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    I was sure I heard the weather guy yesterday predicting snow overnight.
    I feel so cheated.