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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by kiter, May 24, 2009.
How do you get from Mooree to the snow in 90 mins? I'm confused!
Ain't that the truth!
Have been looking at the barometer readings from Adelaide and Hobart and they are both indicating FINALLY that the Highs are well on their way out...dropping nicely.
Have to admit too that the sat loops from the past day look absolutely crazy! Everything seems to be spinning clockwise (L) based around three nodes stretching from NSW to SA to WA. Weird.
Mt Kaputar National Park
1510m old volcanic mountain. Probably be great for winter snowmaking with the interior's low humidity...
Yeah was up Kaputar in March and very impressed by it. I wonder how much snow it sees a year. Would have to be the right system as i am sure it is often cold enough but lacks moisture.
WZ and Smowatch still pessimistic about the moisture content. The system being from the SW will be drier but hopefully with all the moisture that has been around there will be a bit more in it. Certainly looking cold enough from next week.
I predict these fronts are approaching from the correct area to be seeded.
When I stop wearing shorts usually means the temperature is cold enough!
Still in shorts at the minute, hopefully next week I'll have long pants on!
From Sunday on will be long pants weather
'Mother nature will bring a timely dumping of snow this weekend to coincide with the official start to the ski season for 2009.
Around 10 to 20cm of snow is likely on the peaks by Tuesday."
''Dumping" , are you serious ??
And another thing I always found so crazy to the point that I wanted to write to all the weatherman/women out there since I landed in Oz :
' It is absolutely freezing' they say, when outside is 13/14 DEGREES CELSIUS !! !!
I love this Aussies !
Stay on topic.
In the latest NSW BOM state forecast they're predicting SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS for sat night and sunday.Beautiful words in anybodys language
good to see the BOM's woken up.
Now the kiss of death has begun.
Check the sat
Weatherzone upgraded their forecast this morning to 5-10cm down to 1200m on Sunday and Monday
Donza's bones were onto something I think
The Weather Chaser's forecast is very much on the optimistic side
OOhh I like those numbers Wang!!!
Wed 10/06/2009 9cm Snow Min -6, Max -4 750m Strong to Light, SW/S/W
Weatherzone updated their forecast to 10-20cm down to 1300m on Sunday.
I think I may have to buy Donza a congratulatory beer for this one
The BOM sometimes get excited about systems that don't deliver.
ie classic cold systems from the SW.
I don't like them to be too excited.
With the sat photo.
There are two lows spinning hard in the bight, portland area.
This wasn't supposed to happen.
It will mean the winds will go a bit more west earlier.
Its full on Dynamic system.
It could seriously puke.
and so with the two lows spinning and the wind changing earlier, does that just mean less prefrontal r@#n or does it also have some effect on the amount of moisture as well ( just trying to edumacate myself more )
This has been well picked up by this forum. Many pundits were predicting snow days ago and the other sites (WZ & SW) did not pick up. SW is still only predicting small amounts for Sunday - Tuesday. WZ has come into line and will be interesting to see some further updates from BOM this evening.
Will be nice on Sunday watching the first winter snow fall at last up at Perisher.
To be honest i'm not sure how it would affect moisture levels.
Though its not really a case of pre frontal here...will be on sunday
If you get a cold change with residual cold air its very beneficial to a strong change running truck and trailer so to speak.
IMHO the 1st low will spin off SE and introduce SW stream over the mountains late tommorrow night..while it won't snow it will be drier and colder than the present north stream..(see how its sucking air towards it from the tropics).
and thus any moisture on saturday and sunday will fall as snow not rain???
It depends...maybe to 1600..maybe lower..its going to be very localised IMHO.
I think Snowatch has to be conservative in his outlooks. He is probably the most viewed snow forecasting site and cops a lot of flack when he calls it wrong...I mean when he is too optimistic. Nevertheless he may yet upgrade tomorrow morning.
forecast pressures aint that great
WZ latest update has upgraded again... up to 40cm Saturday-Monday.
That's what's bugged me about this event all along.
Will Mt Buller get much/all of these predicted snowfalls?
Its is possible to dump off high pressure. Look at japan.
Its the gradient that matters.
GASP is going for some very cold air getting up into southern queensland mid next week. And moisture coming off the coast. Wouldn't come up that often and could see snow fall in some unlikley places. Mt Warning?
i will be in oberon on sunday. Any chance of snow up in the higher parts guys?
If its not snowing it will be frikken cold.
I reckon monday morning maybe with front...then later Tuesday with sustained cold air.
I'm totally confused. It's looking cold enough, but the moisture won't be around, according to the models. Personally I believe a forecast more when it comes from a forecaster's mouth, as they have the experience and training to back up what they're saying.
What effect could the upper level trough over Vic at the moment have on any precipitation? Humidity has been more typical of late spring than early winter. This must be buliding to something.
If it hangs around it could be a bonus. Will obviously push the temps up though. Im liking sunday/monday at the moment.
The best thing IMO is the westerly flow that will be maintained over the mountain between sunday and tuesday. That typically results in 5cm a day even if the air mass is dry.
if there's moisture and cold I'll do a run to the top and see.
The old locals say it's never snowed ontop, but I can't see why not
Not a sausage maybe a taste on monday .
Off topic, but my grandad grew up in the shadow of mount warning in the early 1920's and he told me stories of snow not only on Mt Warning but in the valley as well.
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looking good from sunday onwards with very cold temps. I don't know why people are worried about the moisture levels based on the GFS it still looks good for 50+ cm.
thats funny, deleted for abuse in the weather thread!
I wonder if this will get deleted for off topic!
sorry sandy he was rude.
Ok, he was.
Frog is still only tipping 5-15 for the whole event. This mornings model run still looks good especially Sun. I hope it delivers. I seem to remember a few false starts last year.
If he goes low he can't lose. If we have a small fall he is right. If we get more he is wrong but the punters are happy because we got more than predicted.
If he goes high and we don't get that much people get upset.
I was sure I heard the weather guy yesterday predicting snow overnight.
I feel so cheated.