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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 3, 2008.
Here is the "on topic thread"
Phew!!! GFS is back on track Cold pool over the alps and a low pressure sitting in the bite. Its all smiles again!!!
Yep back on track now..
I'm still going for 30 - 40cm
GFS is looking tops
How the models change and chop!
Now the low is tracking well
Double-cored and strong as hell
Very moist and fairly cold
This could be the Dump of Gold
But charts still say + 144
They could still change twelve times more!
COLA MSLP +120hrs looks for around 15-25cm for tuesday...and the 540 hangs around some afterwards. BOM are less enthusiastic at this stage, but only looking (perhaps conservatively) through to monday...with showers.
(NB: Spencers depth 50.2cm today)
you must have had that one up your sleeve for a while.
I agree things are looking like its going to put some real cover down, 30 to 40 in this one agreed! I think the prefrontal RRRR above 1600 will be short lived as well
(NB: Spencers depth 50.2cm today)
wow thats almost 2006's top wasn't it, this must be a bumper season, the timing of this next system will be just right to increase that reading to over a meter..... hopefully
this is awesome news!
however as quickly as it is changing it may still turn for the worse but fingers crossed!!!!
Is this what you were looking for Airefuego ??
Great work MS
That +120 could be very very good.
Looks awesome! Still hoping for around 50cm next week and next. I think that amount realistically for this time of year is conservative for 2 weeks. Hoping more!
O GOODY, got so freeked out by the look of it yesterday and this morning bt its all good now, unless it changes again, in which case i will personally hunt down the weather god....
There's some potential pre-frontal rain in that though.....
What would be a concern is the 168...... for anyone living north of Taree....
Really welcome rain for inland NSW though.
I'll post each update same as above for the same periods over the next few days too. I think it will see some more changes yet.
Pressure is very high though
Each time I check there is a pool of cold air progged over the SE with plenty of moisture but BOM and the mighty amphibian are not so optimistic. Indeed , Snowatch has changed its outlook quite dramatically. Will be interesting - I'm going for snow based on the SW fetch from the BOM charts - based more on hope than skill.
Just saw Snowatch forecast too. Not so flash now.
hey sandy, you deleted my prediction??..it was the second post in the topic..i dont see how it was inappropriate.
Dont forget the amphibian only updates his forecast based on the first run of charts for the day, he hasnt updated since this morning and the charts have changed quite a bit as we know since then!!
Snowatch forecasts are based of this mornings charts. This afternoons charts have change significantly indicating colder temps, as well as indicating snow rather then the rain.
My prediction is some pre frontal r*&% followed by significant snowfall to around 1500m with the slight south westerly feed. With the moisture levels looking good it should be about 35-40cm maybe 40-45 if the cold air mass comes through earlier then currently indicated.
For at least 24 hours i can think thank (insert here god, allah, fk) for that the charts on track again...pressure will be interesting, agreed.
Don't think we'll see 45cm more likely in the 20's however after facing the horror charts this morning I'd be happy with that, but I'm still doing the dance for more.
You can believe me that i have everything crossed. Thanks for everyones input!
this could still go anywhere....
Thanks for that wonderful insight.
Still not sure on amounts yet- Could be still a fair amount of pre frontal crap and thats where the real key on snowfall amounts will be (How long it takes before the cold air arrives). My broad guess is somewhere between 50-20cm.
Come Saturday morning and the Snow Tipping Comp's current leader will reveal his precise guestimation!!!
I'm still not confident that the snow level will drop low enough, quick enough (in vic anway) before the moisture moves on.
I belive that the pre-frontal will be significant until altleast Tuesday night when the cold pool arrives, however most of the moisture will have moved on by then.
Judging by the 850hPa charts snow level looks to be 1900m for monday/monday night (staying high as the moisture is from a tropical feed) before lowering very slowly throughout tuesday (1800/1700m) as the cold pool arrives tuesday night dropping the snow level to around 1400m.
As I said in the other thread, the main factor will be how long the precding high provides a SW inflow of cold air.
Unfortuantly - to me - still looks like significant rain before 10cm or so of snowfall.
I transfered it to the other 6th - 10th thread, so it's still around....
Looks to me like this system is turning to Sh*t .. The models are was confused but looks like being to warm for snow.. Thing can change for the better hopefully..!
Downgrade again- I dunno what charts the Frog is looking at but he is dead set kidding if he thinks the snow falls are back on track on todays run- Cold air arrives once the moisture is long gone. Time to sacrafice a virgin to the alimighty snow god!!!
Probably yesterday afternoons run. It was looking much more positive.
im wayyy a head of you..
Monday 7th & Tuesday 8th are looking downright bad in my estimation. Let's hope the chart are wrong and the low track further south.
Does look like sne up high and r@1n down low atm. Pressure is still too high...it was late last night but djon's 180hr GFS has an ECL forming at the back end of all of this next weekend.
This system is really confusing, GASP has changed massively on the last up date its now not even showing the formation of the high tracking low or any associated rain or snow. GFS dosn't exactly sit pretty although my major uncertainity is every other snow system this season has been pushed south, this system seems to do the exact opposite and i just don't think it will track as high as GFS is saying.
Certainly is an odd system & it's not often that a LP system will hold its own against a squeeze between two HP systems.
& the models don't seem to know what to make of it........ that's why they've been all over the place lately.
I think we'll see wild changes in this right up to the day.
Judging from the position of the low on the 6th, I would normally expect the centre of the low on the 7th to be level with southern Victoria, rather than just south of Adelaide.
If it does that, then that nasty chart for the 9th will look a little better.
Snowatch is this morning predicting predominantly snow rather than rain and snow periods. Lets hope it delivers. Im down at Perisher Blue with my kids for a week starting the 13th.
GFS is on CRACK again! it seems to have done this 4 or 5 days out for each system this season
Hey optimist your line at the bottom says it all!
I'm trying to remember when SE aus was looking at a decent low tracking across like this...from memory it was April (?) last year when SA got all that rain.
Yeah ill agree that GFS has been smoking something special this morning, but then again i think GASP has been doing the same thing. I wont say any more of GASP, its not going to happen the way its progged on there.
At the moment i cant see the low getting pushed up that far north, it's weird it's been progged like that for so long, the preceeding high is going to push it down IMO and i dont think it will even get there (to where it's progged).
At the same time 500mb temps are acceptable for snow, but 850mb temps are not really. This is sorta consistent with surface prognosis but if the approaching front IS as deep as what is being progged at the moment, and with the addition of a cold pool, i cant see the temps being that high at 1600m. Moisture is not a problem atm.
Normally i give it to +96hrs before i make a stand on the system, but this one i cant at the moment, other than to say the low will be further south than what is progged. Fingers crossed its enough for snow.
I think that we will just scrap in.
Snow might be a little soggy initially, pre-frontal, but should be good after that.
GFS is all over the place. Tonights run should be getting very close to the actual.
Given how good this looked a week ago, I have faith the model will get a little better rather than worse.
I've got to say that EC hasn't really liked this system from the start (if I'm interpreting the charts right). Tuesday/Wednesday were always looking iffy.
looking more iffy now the BOM has hung its 4 day
Sat Pic showing both the Nw and SW feeds. Race is on to see if the cold air can catch the moisture over WA/SA border area. BOM charts appear to be showing this happening Sunday night but then the low flies north. Will now watch Sat/Temps and radar.
GFS has update... Looking the goods now
Depends on what you call the goods??? Not all that good for mine-plenty of pre frontal from Sunday till Tuesday snow falling tuesday night with light snow until Friday. Net gain will be marginal if any IMO.
???? i would think the temps are below 0C the whole time at 1630m which is good enough for me. This is according to this afternoons GFS run. Plenty of moisture i dont see a lot of pre-frontal at all. 500mb charts also confirm this.
nsw bom says snow above 1700m for tuesday, so most of perisher and charlotte would get a abit. Still worried about the prefrontal though, if only the cold air was a little more east and there would be some decent falls in nsw.