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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 3, 2008.
NSW BOM are on to it as well now
They are going for around 18-30cms from now until Friday morning
Is Weatherzones 7-Day GFS buggered for anyone else?
yeah she dont look the best at the moment on WZ, maybe cost-cutting
yep there looks like a sting in that tail
and vic resorts to gain 5cms+ from the SW showers to follow.
Now that GFS has gotten its act together.....
Should snow steadily all day Thursday/Friday...... but not in any great amounts by the looks of it.
Nice to have though !!
I suspect there will be a bit in this on Thursday, and low down too. Could be snow in lots of weird and wonderful places.
WZ's GFS is having some real issues ATM.....
However,..... LAPS has been on the money for most of this week & Thursday into Friday is still showing promise for decent falls & very low temps.
Certainly not pukage by any stretch of the imagination, but a great lead in for a good weekend to go for a slide.
I suspect absolute fizzer!!! How dissapointing.
If it creeps inland Selwyn may get a bit more than the southern resorts.
Snowing in Jindabyne at the Moment. A bit on the radar coming in from the south east.
good news, not much in it. Hav to wait till 2moro! hopefully it doesn't interfere with the approaching front
All the moisture seems to be dodging the alps. Typical as Im down there next week!
Snow showers will ease off today, then develop again tommorow...and its gonna get hella windy (you wouldn't wanna be anywhere else but indoors thursday night!). So its not over yet!
GFS is back up. showing more moisture for fridays map than thursdays. 540 line is higher too not that temps are an issue at the moment. has it slowed a little?
Spencers Ck depth to exceed 1m on Thurs am, if they can get out there and read it! Who's going for 1.2m or even higher. And to think how much doom and gloom there was just over a week ago.
They're forecasting a pretty cold day in Melbourne tomorrow with bumper falls for the resorts - how low is the snow line likely to be in the Yarra Valley? are the hills around Healesville likely to get snow?
This is a VIC cold front so not much for NSW really
As reported in snow report next morning
Dont forget to add in the IMO or Sandy will eat you.
Thanks for the reminder afaict. But we need Sandy and his big stick to stay on topic IMO. Tomorrows doom and gloom will be for those stuck in the traffic jam caused by chains having to be fitted from Sawpit Ck - IMO. Now two more posts to go and I won't be a first timer!!!
Here's a table of snowdepth at Spencers Ck on July 10th from 2000 to 2007. Some interpolation has been done since the second Thurs in July varies from the 8th to the 14th.
Surely this year will beat 2005 and perhaps even 2000. Both were excellent IMHO during the second week of the NSW school hols.
Spencers Creek by this time tomorrow will be lucky to have more than 70cm.
It had 50cm last week and since then we've had around 20cm more - but there is compaction to consider as well as possible meltage.
Not much liquification at 1830m level since its been sub-zero all week!!
That rain on the radar is above me now . 1 degrees and light rain.
Charts still showing very cold and windy SW fetch tommorow and on friday. You can even see it on the sat image.
IMO looks like it will start snowing again around 8 - 9am tommorow, and continue throughout the day with blizard conditions developing as the day goes on. The snow level will drop throughout the day to around about 800m by tommorow night.
I think buller will do very well out of this.
My guestimate (for VIC) is 30cm by Friday am, and maybe another 5cm on Friday, then it will clear up pretty niceley for an awesome crowded weekend
yep there's always ground warmth as a source of meltage but hopefully minimal.
Buller, as reported on the mornings snow report
Friday: 15-30cms - Hard to call this one
Saturday: Dusting to 5cms
NSW should get 10-20cms
I think 20cm will be a bit of a stretch for NSW- I am hoping for 10cm preying for more. Saying that the front last week looked fairly similar and produced the goods so there is hope!!
I think there will be something decent over Thurs/Fri, 20-30cm at least for everyone, perhaps a touch more in Tas. A classic winter front, cold, wet with a long fetch.
##### Off topic post #####
Shin Setsu... add something useful or move to the conversation part of the site and start up a thread about whinging about this stuff... we don't need it here... people are just doing their best mate... give them a go.
i dunno his idiocy cracks me up, you know when you see something so stupid you just shake your head and chuckle.
as opposed to the might and wisdom of yourself?
it's all good boys were on !! Dumpage is on the way !!!
Hows the almighty 15th of June 1 in 50 year storm comming Setsu!!.
Sorry back on topic!!
Still not conviced on the amount of precip tomorrow or friday.
Guys with this type of "normal winter" fetch and the fact that Buller is the first mtn in a direct SW flow for all resorts, is it fair to say that Buller always does best in this type of cold flow ? And that being the case, does this mean NSW resorts fair more poorly cause the snow in true SW flows gets bagged by the Vic resorts. The reason I ask is that NSW resorts seem to do better v Vic with an ECL or in a 2nd scanario of direct westerlies ? Interested in your thoughts and this is not a Vic v NSW thing either
Shxt poozoo no need to respond !
i got that from BH about the 15th ya gave me a bum stir mate ....
Doesn't look to SW to me. WIll start with a NW, then W then SW as most fronts do. All areas should see good falls.
Disclaimer - i thought NSW resorts would score 10cm last night so take my ramblings with a whole shaker of salt.
This is looking like it will deliver light snow for the next 36 hrs or so.
There will likely be a "luck of the draw" element to it with some localised heavy falls.
10 - 15 cm by the time it's done IMHO.
^ Looks like you were spot on with this entire period MS - nice!
NSW BOM have gone all bullish again about the amount of snow and the level- I think they may be right 20cm is a possibility now for NSW. It just feels snowy!!!
Hey the snows coming in from the right direction , 20cm + for me . Have a look at the accum on the trees after an hour at buller and hotham this morning.
Min of 20cms in this for Buller, thinking more like 30/35 cms now
The frog is going for 35 cm by end of tomorrow. Check out the fence on the Blue Cow cam. 2 slats covered and 3 to go. 35cm should cover the next one up. Her's hoping
I don't think that applies for the reasons that you have suggested. Your theory sounds like the clouds have lost all their snow by the time they have passed over the Vic resorts en-route to NSW.
The systems arriving from the south or SW will hit the Victorian mountains first, but if they push far enough north to get to the NSW mountains there will usually be decent falls there too. Some systems however just have the northern edge pass over the Vic resorts and then miss NSW.
They often get colder as they push further north as well and the air mass is pushed up over the ranges. As a result they often drop snow to a lower level in NSW (provided they continue far enough north to drop snow that is)
It was more around the positioning of the edge of the bands I suppose.