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Predictions: 8th - 10th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I really hope one of these comes off, sick of them fading away.

    Anyway this one looks strong on EC for the last couple of runs. IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This looks aok
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS IMO is not running with it quite yet.

    [​IMG]
     
    #3 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Quite a quick gradient from warm to cold on EC IMO.
    I just hope most of the moisture is after the cold air moves through.
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Imo Saturday Sundays event will run into this..
     
  6. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    concur claude,i have had a gutfull of these high's spoiling the fronts time after time as well,its been happening all winter. but hopefully it changes from now?? imo
     
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    The last one looked ace too.
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Highs are not spoiling the party this season imo
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Agreed. Systems have peaked too early, either over WA or SA IMO
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to get too excited by this yet.
     
  11. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    long range gfs has been throwing out epic scenarios all season, pity none of them have come off.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks good on EC and GFS today, IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #12 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    AXS-G looks ugly for August 8-10 with a blowtorch NWly that reminds me of August 2011. At least GFS and EC contradict AXS-G.
     
  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    im also liking the look of the little front showing up for this period,looks like a carbon copy of the monday front. short sharp and cold imo.
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    This looks sustained. Cold and westerly
    spag is coming around
    traditional august of wind n wind is coming
    IMO
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    EC likes as well
    very muchly
    [​IMG]
     
    #16 Donza, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    Big discrepancy with GFS in terms of progression, ie GFS has high moving more quickly and by the 9th blocking the low

    Having said that, GFS likes the 8th

    At least there is agreement that the low ought bring something better than a sprinkle

    All in my IMO
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    Looks ok to me on EC

    [​IMG]

    Looks like 25cm+ on EC today IMO
     
    #18 Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    Really need this to come off IMO
    Looking good for now
    Check again on the 6th
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    [​IMG]

    Trough over WA. Check
    weak ridge over SE queensland. Check.
    strong low. Check
    High ancored SW of perth.Check
     
    #20 Donza, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 8th - 16th August

    Not sure that I see this going out to the 16th though. [​IMG]

    IMO
     
    #21 Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Maybe I was slighlty taking the puss..
    Its interesting times ahead though.
    Looks more like a traditional August
     
  23. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Frog not seeing it IMO

    Infact Frog not seeing anything decent for August.
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    That should change twelve times in the next 10 days

    In his defence he doesn't seem to place any regard in EC modelling.
     
    #24 Donza, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  25. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane says:


    The next system may be from next Wednesday and looks strong.


    Yippee
     
  26. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS throws in hot NWlys on Tuesday/Wednesday, probably some pre-frontal r@#*, then the High moves in very quickly... LWT positioning all important IMO.
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sorry man I disagree with this
    850 temps over the mountains hover around max 2 ..
    as per gfs
     
    #27 Donza, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    btw gfs doesn't look quite right beyond 144.IMO.. the way it unfolds
    Much room for shaping
     
  29. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    That's a defence? Used to post here a lot ... always just GFS (via COLA), extrapolated via wetware.
     
    #29 Gerg, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I don't see much moisture till the 8th on GFS

    [​IMG]

    Freeze levels could be better, so a bit of prefrontal is expected.

    [​IMG]

    But it cools down quite quickly.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Looks like a secondary system coming through on the 11th.
     
    #30 Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Who cares, check out his track record, which for the record I keep in file for later [​IMG] s

    Back on topic

    25cm+ for 8-10th IMO for Thredbo/Perisher
     
    #31 skiflat, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC from the 00z run

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Suggests some prefrontal on the 9th.
    Then starts to look like a cut-off scenario
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    yet another SE system? Bullerites will not be happy if it pans out this way.
     
    #32 Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yr.no works out the above EC charts as being this for Hotham

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Buller, up to 42cm if it's cold enough from yr.no.
     
    #33 Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Imo this is looking amazeballs.. the models are so coolly fluid I reckon something epic might unfold
     
  35. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, any model which throws up an intense 1034 high centred over vic in the midst of this progression is way out (ie GFS for 10/8)

    The lows are too strong and too regular and the chance for the pressure gap bw highs too great for something decent not to happen and it's somewhere bw 9-13 August at this stage

    IMO
     
    #35 Karicta, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  36. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Totes Amazeballs?

    Looks like ACCESS is showing somewhat of a SW'ly blast + moisture, not overly cold though. GFS has, well, not much, looks zonal, southerly IMO.

    Theres a lot of cold air down south, just needs the magnets turned on. Dont see this one being epic but maybe im not aspy enough to read the patterns.
     
  37. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Access-G really puts us in a wildly alternating cold-warm-cold scenario for next week. Anything could happen IMO.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yr.no says a foot plus for next Friday for perisher. Easy. Wake me when its confirmed
     
  39. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't kid yourself, you won't be able to sleep

    2 foot storm?!
     
    #39 Karicta, Aug 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Dunno. IMO cut-off lows can do anything and SE systems are so hard to predict.
    Could be anything from nothing to 50cm. Hang on to your hats.
    It's a much less predictable scenario than what we had yesterday.
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cut off in that position perfect for falls, and havent had a decent one for a while...

    Having said that, I'm not convinced by the cut off scenario - still more likely to be a classic string of lows from the sw from 8 August onwards IMO

    Like it muchly either way
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Big downgrade on EC this morning IMO.
    As I suspected last night that SE flow is now far further north (we've seen this a few times this winter too).
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Heaps of promise

    EC will flip and flop

    Move along
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 feet easy.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC staying with around 10cm out of this one with the afternoon's run. IMO

    GFS staying pretty weak until the 11th IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #45 Claude Cat, Aug 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  46. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Access likes Thursday. Potential for 15cm+ on that day alone (see bom interactive). -2 850's move in quickly and a truck load of moisture. Fair agreement in the models (give or take the flip flops)...

    IMO.
     
  47. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    high is pretty strong from that image CC [​IMG]
     
    #47 Mils, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  48. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    1020 is not to strong IMO compared to the low sub 980's south of tassie .
     
    #48 loweee, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  49. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    It's very deep south though loweee [​IMG]

    I miss last years July system. They are all scraping low [​IMG]

    imho
     
    #49 Mils, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  50. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Agree 300km further north would see a big difference