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Predictions: 8th - 10th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's funny that GFS is going with the ECL scenario that EC was showing just two days ago - see my post on previous page. (9am GFS)

    [​IMG]

    EC went off that pretty quickly (this is how it looks on the current 3am run)

    [​IMG]

    I'm tipping GFS will go off it too. 3pm runs will be interesting.
     
    #51 Claude Cat, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #52 Donza, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Plenty of divergence across the models right now.
     
  4. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    help me out Donza, hand up i know nothing but this looks like 1-5mm on the precip levels...or am i wrong? Do you expect to see the goodies over Tassie flow up behind it?
     
    #54 Slim, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Southerly like that above tend to put Vic in a "rain shadow" from Tasmania on past experience. Cold for sure, and pretty reasonable for NSW. IMO
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    To be honest i'd be suprised if it looks like that..or rainfall falls in those amounts
    However its "something". Its cold.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    True that. 3 models, three different shapes. Just potential at the moment, could be 10cm or 50cm.
     
  8. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Ben lomond spesh!
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    with an inland trough that big i'd be shocked to see that high ridge..talking 10pm tuesday


    [​IMG]
     
    #59 Donza, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Matches Donza's twc mesocast for the 10th
     
    #60 Claude Cat, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    holy bat balls
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS ECL alert.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #62 Claude Cat, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah three feet storm to 800 metres on those charts
    pfft
    like thats going to happen.

    wait till the peeps see it rendered on WZ. They will shite themselves.
     
  14. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    handy!

    is that bad boy SW of WA on the same chart likely to run out of puff or get pushed under by the big H?
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Should come through around 16-17th IMO.
    Currently looking a little weaker on GFS by the time it hits the east side of the continent IMO, but plenty of time for it to change.
     
    #65 Claude Cat, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  16. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Looks rather similar to the July storm of 05 if I remember correctly..Please come off...
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has freeze levels down to 600m on the 9th
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    HAHAHAHA

    Crazy...
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO
    EC not going with the ECL although it still looks good for the period. 8th could have some prefrontal though.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #69 Claude Cat, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  20. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Rendered

    [​IMG]
     
    #70 skiflat, Aug 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  21. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Ha ha yeah right!

    Most of that precip to me looks like it would arrive in warmer temps off the tasman to me. Still cold enough for snow in the resorts but too late for the low level stuff with the chilly cold pool having already moved off north east to the northern tablelands.
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    there's an error in this thread - let's see if this fixes it
     
  24. oxypHos

    oxypHos First Runs

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    This arvo's GFS looks crazy for Monday 11/8. Heavy falls over Gippsland and into the alps. I'm not too excited, as of yet, given its 192hrs out
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has quickly given up on the ECL scenario as I expected. But it still looks good for this system IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #75 Claude Cat, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Certainly looks good even if no longer an ECL. Better setup IMO for the resorts now.
     
  27. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict no pre frontal and no ECL
     
  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    IMO this is looking fantastic [​IMG] on this mornin gfs has the 528 line way inland with plenty of precip [​IMG]
     
    #78 doogasnow, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr.no not seeing anything like the GFS scenario precip wise. Anyone got decent EC charts to see why this is? Access and TWC throwing up more than yr.no suggest, but less than GFS

    Given that yr.no was progging 60cm at one point (albeit an ECL from memory), I think we'll see the numbers go up over the next few days.

    For what it's worth, I think minimum of 25cm for this period (max could be much more), but stretch out the final date a little. Great set up, with REALLY cold 500 temps coming through so snow quality ought be fantastic adding to the potential depth.
     
  30. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    its amaizing what happens when the high's shuffle around and weaken a little imo. def think somethin good is goin to happen through this period will very interesting to watch unfold [​IMG] imo
     
    #80 doogasnow, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC looks good.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Just not quite the same quantities as GFS. Moisture perhaps a little further east, and rain shadow from Tasmania coming in to play?
    Stil looks good for 25cm to me IMO
     
    #81 Claude Cat, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like it too

    Just need high to slow or be slightly further north and it will get serious. The little purple dot just north of the nsw resorts also gives real hope for bigger totals to eventuate around the 'alps'.

    GFS normally throws the bigger precip totals, whilst EC tends to be more accurate. Just makes GFS more fun!

    All in my very layman opinion of course
     
  33. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh, and thanks CC
     
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looking good on EC from next Wednesday through Friday, here you go Karicta:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Looking like a genuine cold outbreak from the SW, that direction would benefit Buller, Baw Baw & Thredbo the most IMO
     
    #84 FourSquare04, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    whoops, should have refreshed - looks like CC beat me to the punch
     
  36. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't have too many charts. Thanks fs4
     
  37. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What will happen with that big rainband SW of WA? Will the east coast low stall the high and force that rainband down and away from us? If not, it looks like way too much pre-frontal rain.
     
  38. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Touch and go on access. GFS has high elongating north south causing low to bunch up and intensify - then whack

    But won't hit til about the 16th, so that's for another thread. Plenty of potential though

    IMO.
     
    #88 Karicta, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still all systems go on EC and GFS IMO


    [​IMG]
     
    #89 Claude Cat, Aug 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Snow in Stanthorpe QLD on Friday if AXS-G is correct. Almost perfect trajectory for cold temps and the best chance all winter for low-level snow in the Eastern states IMO. GFS isn't much different either, but it does seem to move through very quicky though IMO.
     
  41. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    wow!

    [​IMG]
     
    #91 Slim, Aug 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Lovesnowboarding

    Lovesnowboarding First Runs

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    Alright guys i need help.... trying to juggle the next 14 days around snowfall and have just found out i may have a surprise wedding on Sat.. Need predictions on best riding over this week and thoughts on snow over weekend? Riding Hotham and the wedding is 4 hours away.
     
  43. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    GFS is right behind this system, in particular, Thursday through Friday is looking pretty special - if it stays as it is right now, it could be the strongest, genuine cold outbreak we have had all winter - a beautiful blast from the SW.

    However, EC is still not convincing me, it doesn't seem to be getting a genuine grip on the system and the progression going off the latest run doesn't seem quite right...hopefully it's a 'glitch run' and we'll see a better run of it tonight...

    Also to note, the follow up system holds potential on the long range but that's for another thread...
     
  44. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Already 10cm in the last 24 hrs, with more on its way to low levels this arvo (hopefully). Then if this 8-10th system comes off anywhere near it's potential it will be epic. Anyone booked for a mid-weeker this week could be in for a treat.
     
    #94 Slim, Aug 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  45. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    looks cold and unstable to my amateur eye. The animation is mesmerising!
     
    #95 Slim, Aug 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    [​IMG]
     
    #96 FourSquare04, Aug 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #97 skiflat, Aug 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  48. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hate to say it, but consistent downgrades now with each run

    Doesn't seem that the cold air will pierce as deeply and the sw flow required for serious dumpage is diminishing

    Still hope for upgrades but if we don't see them tomorrow then this could be a little disappointing.

    I'm now calling 15cm for this period...

    All IMO.
     
  49. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    looking at the sat animation, looks like its hooking up a bit early and lining up SW WA to cop the brunt. Still looks solid in the bight for a second whip from the west IMO
     
  50. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    It's funny because only today has weather zone come on board with 20-40 cm over this period. If i was to take a stab 20-30 cm from Wednesday night to Friday based from a mix of all current charts.