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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012.
Except 18z is better than the 12z run
ahh look out
I reckon this is on for NSW
GFS has moisture on its models from 4pm wednesday until saturday night easy.
thickness progged to be as low as 5266
snowlevel of 800 metres. With snow falling to lower levels.
will suprise IMO
pre frontal should fall as snow.
Lookin at going down saturday morning but I only have a 2WD vehicle
Going off those snow levels, wow...
Yeah friday morning to the tubes going to be interesting for us
As will be driving to jindy..
50-70 km/h winds for Perisher/Thredbo on Friday
Yeah not nice. That will go close to closing chairs on Mt P and The Cow
I expected as much..
very tight gradient on gfs
BOM has 'moderate winds' for the weekend.
From my experience, 'moderate winds' can still be unpleasant skiing conditions.
Unfortunately for Aus, snow usually brings strong winds with it.
I care about snow not weather. Plenty of protected spots or surface lifts.
As for Downgrades, leeward slopes will still get 30+ of quality dry snow even if we only get 10-15cm IMO
Dont go on thurs and fri if you dont like wind and white-outs.
Some of my all time days (Hotham)nhave been when Heavenly was wind-hold. Only needed to walk 500m for endless Village loops in said area anyway.
^ on reflexion excuse hero post above.
Reckon I'll need chains driving ot the tube Saturday morning on current model run?
BOM is non commital regarding the amount of moisture likely to hit below 1000m as snow at this stage.
time level factor m/m cm
4pm-10pm 1500 1 0.8 4.8
10pm-4am 1300 1 1.2 7.2
4am-10am 900 1.5 1.2 10.8
10am-4pm 750 1.8 1.2 12.96
4pm-10pm 700 1.8 1.2 12.96
10pm-4am 900 1.5 0.5 4.5
4am-10am 900 1.5 0.5 4.5
10am-4pm 900 1.5 0.5 4.5
4pm-10pm 1100 1 0.5 3
Just did this roughly..for perisher..
time starting 4pm wednesday
proportional rate of snowfall vs freezing level.
mm per hour
Reckon its a Wednesday night Thursday system myself.
I think it will be over by Friday.
Donza goes all-in.
IMO it will be Victoria initially, and NSW will pick up a fair bit on the tail end. So over by Friday for Vic, but NSW will pick up a fair bit Friday night.
Donza ever the optimist...I am with Plowking all over by Friday
first model to update today...and its a precip model
That is sâ‚¬x Donza.
AXS-R backed right off the pedal
Still looks ok on 00z GFS IMO
Perhaps not so much sting in the tail though. Mostly happening Thursday to Friday midday, with a final blast late Saturday.
mmmmm dam high comin in behind this system needs to slow down or weaken or do something! imo the gloss has just slightly gone out of this mornin charts but will wait and see this arvo if it hits back a little? still a good looking cold system,528 line has backed away as well imo
aaand the downward slide begins
janes weather still likes it down to 500mtr? who knows?
wouldnt say fizzer just yet
umm OOZ is an upgrade
Its umm colder guys
Also CC's moisture projections are great
Still 15 to 25. No chance of 54cm imo
15cm by 4am thursday morning IMO..easy
like the look of ooz donz shows the 528 line coming straight up over vic imo
Gawd some people are hard to please. GFS looks great to me IMO.
3pm gfs backed off...
IMO still good for 25cm++ with that thickness.
Earlier runs of that which were hinting moar towards 50cm
Thats cause they are rookies CC
Youre right it is better.
The colder air is now on the western flanks of the ranges...
please post said runs
this arvo looks the best its looked in days IMO
I don't agree with this either. Although Donza is the eternal optimist.
I guess we're seeing divergence in models again. EC has been steady 20-30cm, GFS (as usual) more, AXS is backing off.
Still thinking it will revert to close to what EC has been saying.
Look at previous gfs runs.......
Yeah got em all saved
I think you'll need it rendered in wz before you appreciate
Given the predominant SW-S direction of this system, IMO Perisher won't get as much Donz. If anything, Thredbo should do a bit better as it's on the southern end of the range and tends to pick up more accumulation when it hits from the S.
Perisher cops it better from the W/NW IMO.
Still, it's looking really promising and ever so tempting for this coming weekend....
Sat loops are showing signs of the good stuff,rail jams in the backyards of Jindy,light the bbi and enjoy my friends.
The mountains will be filled with pow.
Remember this?...Canberra might see some flakes thursday night...
Yeah towards the end..but i reckon the bulk will occur while the wind is w/nw..ie between 4pm wednesday and 10am thursday...then it goes west...then south
ice age...in more ways than one.
I'm still hoping the L system has the guts to push through to the Alps.
That stationary H over NSW has been getting progressively stronger since yesdi arvo (1024 to 1028 now), consequently establishing a strong NW flow over the eastern part of the Bight.
It's a magic system down there...would be a shame if it didn't deliver as per model predictions.
both weatherzone & bom have put the snow levels up to 700mtrs in vic
Still looking same-same on EC this afternoon IMO
EC has that trough very close to the NSW coast thursday night.
I like that.