Predictions: 8th - 10th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Except 18z is better than the 12z run [​IMG]
     
    #151 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    ahh look out
    I reckon this is on for NSW
    GFS has moisture on its models from 4pm wednesday until saturday night easy.
    thickness progged to be as low as 5266
    snowlevel of 800 metres. With snow falling to lower levels.
    will suprise IMO
    pre frontal should fall as snow.
     
  3. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Lookin at going down saturday morning but I only have a 2WD vehicle [​IMG]

    Going off those snow levels, wow...
     
    #153 seekingpow, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    Yeah friday morning to the tubes going to be interesting for us
    As will be driving to jindy..
     
    #154 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  5. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,013
    Likes Received:
    317
    50-70 km/h winds for Perisher/Thredbo on Friday [​IMG]
     
    #155 skiflat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yeah not nice. That will go close to closing chairs on Mt P and The Cow
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    I expected as much..
    very tight gradient on gfs
     
  8. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    BOM has 'moderate winds' for the weekend.

    From my experience, 'moderate winds' can still be unpleasant skiing conditions.
     
  9. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Unfortunately for Aus, snow usually brings strong winds with it.
     
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,120
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Bingo.
    I care about snow not weather. Plenty of protected spots or surface lifts.
    As for Downgrades, leeward slopes will still get 30+ of quality dry snow even if we only get 10-15cm IMO
    Dont go on thurs and fri if you dont like wind and white-outs.
    Some of my all time days (Hotham)nhave been when Heavenly was wind-hold. Only needed to walk 500m for endless Village loops in said area anyway.
     
    #160 The Plowking, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,120
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    ^ on reflexion excuse hero post above.
    Bit excited
     
  12. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,645
    You're excused.
     
  13. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Reckon I'll need chains driving ot the tube Saturday morning on current model run?

    BOM is non commital regarding the amount of moisture likely to hit below 1000m as snow at this stage.
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    time level factor m/m cm
    4pm-10pm 1500 1 0.8 4.8
    10pm-4am 1300 1 1.2 7.2
    4am-10am 900 1.5 1.2 10.8
    10am-4pm 750 1.8 1.2 12.96
    4pm-10pm 700 1.8 1.2 12.96
    10pm-4am 900 1.5 0.5 4.5
    4am-10am 900 1.5 0.5 4.5
    10am-4pm 900 1.5 0.5 4.5
    4pm-10pm 1100 1 0.5 3

    Just did this roughly..for perisher..
    time starting 4pm wednesday
    snowlevel
    proportional rate of snowfall vs freezing level.
    mm per hour
    accumulation.
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,120
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Reckon its a Wednesday night Thursday system myself.
    I think it will be over by Friday.
     
    #165 The Plowking, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Donza goes all-in.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO it will be Victoria initially, and NSW will pick up a fair bit on the tail end. So over by Friday for Vic, but NSW will pick up a fair bit Friday night.
     
    #167 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  18. BH

    BH One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,092
    Likes Received:
    37
    Donza ever the optimist...I am with Plowking all over by Friday
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    first model to update today...and its a precip model

    [​IMG]
     
    #169 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,097
    Likes Received:
    51,622
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    That is s€x Donza.
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    AXS-R backed right off the pedal
    goddammit
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Still looks ok on 00z GFS IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps not so much sting in the tail though. Mostly happening Thursday to Friday midday, with a final blast late Saturday.
     
    #172 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    mmmmm dam high comin in behind this system needs to slow down or weaken or do something! imo the gloss has just slightly gone out of this mornin charts but will wait and see this arvo if it hits back a little? still a good looking cold system,528 line has backed away as well imo
     
  24. Mils

    Mils One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    1,175
    Likes Received:
    70
    Location:
    Gold Coast
    aaand the downward slide begins [​IMG]

    imho
     
    #174 Mils, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    [​IMG] janes weather still likes it down to 500mtr? who knows?

    wouldnt say fizzer just yet [​IMG]
     
    #175 doogasnow, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    #176 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    Its umm colder guys
    Also CC's moisture projections are great
     
  28. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,013
    Likes Received:
    317
    Still 15 to 25. No chance of 54cm imo
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    15cm by 4am thursday morning IMO..easy
     
    #179 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  30. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    like the look of ooz donz shows the 528 line coming straight up over vic imo [​IMG]
     
    #180 doogasnow, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #181 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Gawd some people are hard to please. GFS looks great to me IMO.
     
  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,013
    Likes Received:
    317
    3pm gfs backed off...
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    exactly where???

    [​IMG]

    IMO still good for 25cm++ with that thickness.
     
    #184 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    troller
     
    #185 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  36. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,013
    Likes Received:
    317
    Earlier runs of that which were hinting moar towards 50cm
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    Thats cause they are rookies CC
    Youre right it is better.
    The colder air is now on the western flanks of the ranges...
     
    #187 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    please post said runs
    this arvo looks the best its looked in days IMO
     
    #188 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I don't agree with this either. Although Donza is the eternal optimist. [​IMG]

    I guess we're seeing divergence in models again. EC has been steady 20-30cm, GFS (as usual) more, AXS is backing off.
    Still thinking it will revert to close to what EC has been saying.
     
    #189 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  40. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,013
    Likes Received:
    317
    Look at previous gfs runs.......
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    Yeah got em all saved
    I think you'll need it rendered in wz before you appreciate
     
    #191 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  42. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,787
    Likes Received:
    3,067
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Given the predominant SW-S direction of this system, IMO Perisher won't get as much Donz. If anything, Thredbo should do a bit better as it's on the southern end of the range and tends to pick up more accumulation when it hits from the S.

    Perisher cops it better from the W/NW IMO.

    Still, it's looking really promising and ever so tempting for this coming weekend....
     
  43. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 16, 2009
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Jindabyne,Dolls Pt
    Sat loops are showing signs of the good stuff,rail jams in the backyards of Jindy,light the bbi and enjoy my friends.
    The mountains will be filled with pow.
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong


    Remember this?...Canberra might see some flakes thursday night...
     
    #194 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    Yeah towards the end..but i reckon the bulk will occur while the wind is w/nw..ie between 4pm wednesday and 10am thursday...then it goes west...then south
     
    #195 Donza, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  46. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2003
    Messages:
    129
    Likes Received:
    65
    Location:
    Mona Vale, NSW
    ice age...in more ways than one.
     
  47. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2000
    Messages:
    4,155
    Likes Received:
    185
    Location:
    Kings-bloody-wood, NSW, Australia
    I'm still hoping the L system has the guts to push through to the Alps.

    That stationary H over NSW has been getting progressively stronger since yesdi arvo (1024 to 1028 now), consequently establishing a strong NW flow over the eastern part of the Bight.

    It's a magic system down there...would be a shame if it didn't deliver as per model predictions.
     
  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    both weatherzone & bom have put the snow levels up to 700mtrs in vic
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,376
    Likes Received:
    50,586
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Still looking same-same on EC this afternoon IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #199 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    EC has that trough very close to the NSW coast thursday night.
    I like that.