Predictions: 8th - 10th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2012.

  1. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah ec still looks good & gfs has the 528 line coming up towards vic on weds then no where to be seen on thurs ?
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO indicates another 15-20 from that alone for NSW if it can push over the Alps.

    [​IMG]
     
    #202 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2012
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  3. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    access is now back on board regarding 528 line which is now once again touching vic coast line.
     
  4. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I'm assuming you're looking at WZ maps. That's the problem with them only displaying one chart every 24 hours - what you were seeing this morning was the 528 approaching, then already warmed and disappeared on the next chart. The models have timed it down to around 10am Thursday for the coldest air, from what I can tell. You can only see that on the 00z charts [​IMG]

    BoM has revised snow levels back to 700 metres. Still low, but not quite Ballarat/Dandenongs/Srzeleckis special kind of low. I just don't think the 850 temps agree with such low levels IMO. Moisture is well and truly there for Vic at least, so this is game on.
     
    #204 ice_man, Aug 7, 2012
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  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah i was looking at access on wz. wz still saying 600mtrs but bom are out to 700mtr. agree ice def plenty of precip around and still a little time to fine tune temps. its one of those systems that i think could snow down to 4-500mtrs if things change slightly and that 528 line hangs around IMO

    i live in strezlekis at about 430asl and the last event that came through sun/mon we had heavy sleet showers come through monday morning.
     
  6. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    7pm access on bom site not so great... Less moisture when the cold air arrives (or certainly less around falls/hotham), then treks over the border....

    I spose we wait to see what tomorrow night brings...
     
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    janes weather has updated tonight instead of tommoz. she is still saying snow down to 500mtrs thursday.

    the thing with this system is since the thread has started there hasent been alot of divergence at all so i think it should pretty much hold true to how it currenly looks. IMO

    might get greedy for one more upgrade [​IMG]
     
    #207 doogasnow, Aug 7, 2012
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks super on EC this morning IMO

    And GFS has thrown an upgrade just to be sure.


    [​IMG]
     
    #208 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2012
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  9. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict at least a foot for Buller based purely on the fact that this is the first weekend in a ski season in the last seven years that we have decided to stay in Melb.

    Might have to amend those plans ........
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO this system is a Thredbo special.
    IMO they are going to cop a good 30cm+ out of this system and it will help the bottom half the mountain immensely come tomorrow when that cold air hits as it's virtually all grass outside of the snowmaking areas at the moment.
     
  11. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO

    If its disappointing, it will be 15cm at least for the period across all majors.

    Given the very cold air and one of the most unstable set ups we've seen for a long while there is real potential for some localised aberrations but I have no idea where this is more likely. I can make arguments for and against all. I would however bet on one or two majors more than doubling the others and that could be 40cm...

    Strap yourselves in, I have

    IMO.
     
  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And as noted in the obs, it seems it is sig colder to start than progged (ie yr.no has hotham at 0 deg at 9am today) so perhaps the pre frontal will be all snow - that will really help the totals

    As per Donza's post a day or so ago

    IMO.
     
  13. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Still sticking with my 10-15cm...Over the moon if we get Donza's 2 foot I will be the 1st man up there...Just dont see it...
     
  14. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    People seem to have gone fairly quite on this thread this morning particularly after the refresh of charts this am. Looks like it is cold at all majors with cold pool yet to arrive, plenty of moisture on the charts IMO thought there would be more be more positive discussion.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Switched to obs now, this one is just about underway.
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I've said my bit..
    am sitting down and watching..

    we need to keep an eye on the placement of the low and trough line.
    The closer to the coast of NSW the better.
    You can see the progess of the low on GFS vs axs-r.
    Quite a bit of divergence there.
    EC is strangely with GFS on this one.
     
  17. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Quick question - When are we expecting the ECL to pop up? I want to be monitoring the satellite when it happens.
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'd say Thursday night
     
    #218 Donza, Aug 8, 2012
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not really an ECL, more a tasman low.
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah its preexisting.
    Its also a long elongated trough line that extends quite a way north
     
    #220 Donza, Aug 8, 2012
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  21. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    [​IMG]
     
    #221 skiflat, Aug 8, 2012
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I guess you don't think it's a fizzer now? [​IMG]
     
    #222 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2012
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  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    I never did really [​IMG]

    I have said 15-25cms from the start..

    The 2 Fizzer comments are to assist in MOAR snow

    [​IMG]

    I like being wrong in this regard [​IMG]

    IMO
     
    #223 skiflat, Aug 8, 2012
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  24. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    this is looking like a reall traditonal sw blast imo
    its really set up nice for some low level snow around the place.
    bom are saying 700mtrs,janes weather is saying 500mtrs ? who is is going to win the race [​IMG] imo
     
    #224 doogasnow, Aug 8, 2012
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 00z GFS is staying on track.
    Perhaps colder than yesterday's runs.

    [​IMG]

    Looks like 850hPa temps of -4C?
     
    #225 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2012
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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    while that 528 line is hanging around like that i think we could def see snow to 500mtr imo

    tassy always forecast snow down to at least 500mtrs if not lower when the 528 line is somewhere near them imo
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be honest, snow level is irrelevant when it's that low IMO. It's all about volume!
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not really true IMO.
    Snow down to 500m means double the amount of snow at 1600m.
    (gross generalisation)
     
    #228 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2012
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  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was under the impression (perhaps misguided) that colder air was drier and the sweet spot in terms of snow fall would be about -2/3? Wouldn't the air temp need to be significantly lower (and subsequently drier) for snow to fall to 500m?
     
    #229 mick chopps, Aug 8, 2012
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO cold can mean drier, but not in this case.
    It just means that we're going to get higher percentage precipitation being snow, and better quality snow at 1500m.
    Eg 10cm snow might only be 5mm of rain at 1600m, while at 500m 10cm snow melts to 10mm rain.
    If you get my drift ...
     
    #230 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2012
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  31. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #231 skiflat, Aug 8, 2012
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  32. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    yeah does seem BOM are being very conservative with their estimates of snow fall/precip IMO. Do they know something most on here are not seeing?
     
  33. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    GFS still solid
    [​IMG]
     
    #233 Slim, Aug 8, 2012
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  34. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #234 skiflat, Aug 8, 2012
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  35. toddles

    toddles Hard Yards

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    This is a Baw Baw system IMO. I dont think there will be much snow for falls/hotham/NSW at all. Baw Baw has already recieved 6 inches or so.
     
  36. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    Define much? The radar look to be tracking sweet atm imo.
     
  37. Bluebear

    Bluebear Hard Yards

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    When is the cold air supposed to arrive?
     
  38. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    not sure what time roughly its ment to hit melb? prob around midnight id say looking at the charts ? imo
     
  39. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    I like it when it is low 'cos it might snow at our house near Marysville! [​IMG]
     
    #239 snow777, Aug 8, 2012
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  40. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I predict Thredbo will do nicely from the 2nd half of the system. Shame the wind will be blowing acoss the hill rather then from behind meaning less wind loading.
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #241 Donza, Aug 8, 2012
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9pm GFS looks a touch stronger IMO.
     
  43. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yes for Northern resorts it does [​IMG]
     
    #243 skiflat, Aug 8, 2012
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  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Data. So is my two foot call still pessimistic?
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO still optimistic. I can see the possibility of 40cm though.
     
    #245 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2012
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  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    [​IMG] ?

    54cms - Sat morning, we'll see

    But does look good at the moment for NSW
     
    #246 skiflat, Aug 8, 2012
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  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    theres an article on the herald sun which says chance of snow for tommoz morning through the dandenong rangers. [​IMG]

    at what time do you guys think the coldest air will be pushing through southern vic (gippsland) ?
     
    #247 doogasnow, Aug 8, 2012
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  48. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Guys on weatherzone talking about the possibility of 10 cm in comma from lunch time tomorrow.
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    easy. Will make my drive down Shit. I have Friday off
     
    #249 Donza, Aug 8, 2012
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  50. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    You have around 10cm up already Donz. Looking good for a few hours yet at Perisher for the heavy stuff but I reckon around 40cm is the mark by Sat IMO. Hopefully the road is clear by Friday night for the trip.