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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2015.
Numbers seem about right.
GFS has further downgrades, IMO
System is too dynamic for accurate moisture progs imo
check the variation in cold pool placement.
might be some more snow in strange spots..ie Berrima
BOM now has Hotham at about 20ml for the week. Huge downgrade.
Don't worry, Bom is clueless for snow in Vic.
Getting a bit old, points and inches are easier for me.
BOM NSW going for a top of 14 tomorrow which IMO is a worry, but also saying snow above 1200m.
Normally you wouldn't want higher than a top of 12 in the nation's capital....
ml is the same as mm in weather speak
* in a perfect world
Models downgraded yesterday & have continued today. Maybe tomorrow's run with give cause for greater optimism of totals. Either way we will get a top up a couple of days this week so it's all good.
AXS-R still looks OK for precip. But most of the cold air-mass just a little too far North for Vic.
Probably peak season this week IMO.
I thought they have upgraded today?
westerly regime until Friday...
Not great for Buller.
Let's hope there's just enough SW in those charts to get Buller though without another ice storm.
Is " The Thing " going to be " The Flop " or is there still going to be some good snow. I predict a real struggle against that high.
I don't see no 'flop', but better for NSW maybe. AXS-R all over it for Thredbo & Perisher.
Still looking pretty solid for 20-30cm in the south and 30cm+ in the north on this afternoon's EC run.
I'm worried about the westerly aspect for Buller though.
Yeah perisher should be 44cm or so IMO
GFS really doesn't like it though. IMO
You sure it won't be 37cm or so?
Yeah looks like one of those smash Adelaide, weaken and drift too far north events.
Good shower rolling through Prahran now. Got real dark real quick.
EDIT: whoops obs in preds thread. sorry.
That's more like it.
Very summer like line of heavy rain, but cold.
Had some thunder in Frankston Sth just as I was packing up the tools.
Is that what your 4 day rule shows?
Nah. The snowatch model does though.
Like the 4 day chart for sure.
Pelting down at olivers hill lookout.
Setting sun out in the background.
Cbf look at charts.
Any more snow forecast for tonight?
Have they? EC hasn't & has been downgrading moisture since Saturday; BOM have been predicting less each day, MountainWatch has gone from 50 cm on Saturday for Sunday to Friday to 10 cm tonight. I agree the four day chart looks great but I can't find much agreement in the models to substantiate belief that we will accumulate 50 cm in NSW by Friday. Hope you are right - just can't see it ATM.
So the Big Show looks like kicking off Late Tuesday. But drying off early Thursday.
I see flurries tonight, but just a dusting, imo.
But the Big Show good for 20-30cm. imo
EC rebounded this morning and this afternoon. Looks like it was last week, certainly better than yesterday.
within 72 hours just look at axs-r.
Mountainwatch isn't a model, its nothing , nadda nil... has no meteorological credit at all. Its not even worse quoting sorry.
(ie for this period a few days ago MW has 79cm for lake mountain and 38cm for Perisher )
Why its a thing? why people quote it?
GFS isn't. It is not in agreement
GFS is also off the reservation this season.
Its close to being binned...IMO
GFS has been positively hopeless this winter. Has it got anything right?
Its a good ECL model
Let us wait & see. The validity of various models and other meteorological predictions for what is to occur this week will be in the outcome.
I'm not seeing 50cm out of this, but 30cm or more for NSW is quite achievable IMO
20-30cm for Victoria, but Buller may struggle with the westerly aspect.
Baw Baw will take 20 any day ... Even 10
This is not a Baw Baw system. The prevailing weather will be from the N, NW and West. Baw Baw will be in rain shadow for most of it.
Maybe 5-10 at the back end but warming quickly so maybe mizzley.
Late Wednesday Snow turning to drizzle thursday basically.
Can't win em all ... shite
Cold = no melt. I'll take that given they've got 80+cm
Baw Baw has plenty of snow, they're set up. Anything else is just icing.