Predictions Predictions 9th - 13th August #thething

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Numbers seem about right.
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has further downgrades, IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    System is too dynamic for accurate moisture progs imo
    check the variation in cold pool placement.
    might be some more snow in strange spots..ie Berrima LOL
     
  4. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM now has Hotham at about 20ml for the week. Huge downgrade.
     
  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't worry, Bom is clueless for snow in Vic.
    Ps: mm
     
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  6. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Getting a bit old, points and inches are easier for me.
     
  7. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    BOM NSW going for a top of 14 tomorrow which IMO is a worry, but also saying snow above 1200m.
    Normally you wouldn't want higher than a top of 12 in the nation's capital....
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So offensive.
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ml is the same as mm in weather speak
    * in a perfect world
     
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  10. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models downgraded yesterday & have continued today. Maybe tomorrow's run with give cause for greater optimism of totals. Either way we will get a top up a couple of days this week so it's all good.
     
  11. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    AXS-R still looks OK for precip. But most of the cold air-mass just a little too far North for Vic.

    Probably peak season this week IMO.
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I thought they have upgraded today?
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Pretty thing
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    westerly regime until Friday...
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not great for Buller.
     
  17. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's hope there's just enough SW in those charts to get Buller though without another ice storm.
     
  18. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is " The Thing " going to be " The Flop " or is there still going to be some good snow. I predict a real struggle against that high.
     
  19. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    I don't see no 'flop', but better for NSW maybe. AXS-R all over it for Thredbo & Perisher.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looking pretty solid for 20-30cm in the south and 30cm+ in the north on this afternoon's EC run.
    I'm worried about the westerly aspect for Buller though.
    IMO
     
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  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah perisher should be 44cm or so IMO
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS really doesn't like it though. IMO
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You sure it won't be 37cm or so?
     
  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looks like one of those smash Adelaide, weaken and drift too far north events.
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    41cm?
     
  26. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good shower rolling through Prahran now. Got real dark real quick.

    EDIT: whoops obs in preds thread. sorry.
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's more like it.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very summer like line of heavy rain, but cold.
    Had some thunder in Frankston Sth just as I was packing up the tools.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Is that what your 4 day rule shows?
    Mine doesn't
     
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  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah. The snowatch model does though.
    Like the 4 day chart for sure.
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pelting down at olivers hill lookout.
    Setting sun out in the background.
    Pretty spectacular.
     
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  32. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Cbf look at charts.

    Any more snow forecast for tonight?
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yes
     
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  34. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have they? EC hasn't & has been downgrading moisture since Saturday; BOM have been predicting less each day, MountainWatch has gone from 50 cm on Saturday for Sunday to Friday to 10 cm tonight. I agree the four day chart looks great but I can't find much agreement in the models to substantiate belief that we will accumulate 50 cm in NSW by Friday. Hope you are right - just can't see it ATM.
     
  35. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the Big Show looks like kicking off Late Tuesday. But drying off early Thursday.

    I see flurries tonight, but just a dusting, imo.

    But the Big Show good for 20-30cm. imo

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC rebounded this morning and this afternoon. Looks like it was last week, certainly better than yesterday.
     
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  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    within 72 hours just look at axs-r.
    Mountainwatch isn't a model, its nothing , nadda nil... has no meteorological credit at all. Its not even worse quoting sorry.
    (ie for this period a few days ago MW has 79cm for lake mountain and 38cm for Perisher )
    Why its a thing? why people quote it?
    god knows
    end rant.
     
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  38. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS isn't. It is not in agreement
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS is also off the reservation this season.
    Its close to being binned...IMO
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has been positively hopeless this winter. Has it got anything right?
     
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  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No
    Its a good ECL model
     
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  42. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let us wait & see. The validity of various models and other meteorological predictions for what is to occur this week will be in the outcome.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm not seeing 50cm out of this, but 30cm or more for NSW is quite achievable IMO
    20-30cm for Victoria, but Buller may struggle with the westerly aspect.
     
  44. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed
     
  45. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Baw Baw will take 20 any day ... Even 10 :woohoo:
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This is not a Baw Baw system. The prevailing weather will be from the N, NW and West. Baw Baw will be in rain shadow for most of it.

    IMO
     
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe 5-10 at the back end but warming quickly so maybe mizzley.
    Late Wednesday Snow turning to drizzle thursday basically.
     
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  48. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Can't win em all ... shite :blb:
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Cold = no melt. I'll take that given they've got 80+cm :)
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw has plenty of snow, they're set up. Anything else is just icing.
     
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