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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2015.
Looking best for Selwyn at the moment IMO. Then Perisher / Threbdo, then Vic majors.
I predict I'm going to the snow for a day this week, but given the choice between tomorrow [Wednesday] or Friday, at Mt Buller, what would be the preference for those who can read the charts far better than I can? Priority is good snow, wind and fog I can deal with.
I expect the fog to prevail till it turns NW.
Penciled Wed Thurs in hoping there is enough to stay in the tree line.
Wind not too windy
Low Pressure low
A wee bit cut off but connected to the main cold pool.
This looks pretty good just wondering when it will clear
I think could for 20 to 40 cm main range.
Friday back country. Its a bit warmer friday
Not really cut-off for mine, but the low is fraction further north than optimal. Looks good for NSW
I used the word wee bit.
This system is good for aspects that don't face east. Opens up a lot of possibilities.
Satellite looks solid
Pushing way harder into SA than optimal.
What time is this expected to hit falls?
Weatherzone going for 5cm for Buller tomorrow
What are people's thoughts, on the money or can Buller expect more?
Just to give you the timing...
You can also see how the moisture spins around central Victoria and why NSW will do well, while southern Vic will not IMO.
See above. Buller's not going to do well out of this IMO.
I think the Hume is in trouble again...
Ah well, just hasn't, been Bullers year!
Well, it's not disastrous, after all.
Adelaide has just dropped temps to under 10 degrees just now
I figure so, more yass/gunning than southern highlands though.
True, still getting a few CMs and most of mountain open!
Sorry - off topic
BOM has dropped their forecast to 2-6cm for Thredbo
NSW BOM predict 2-5 for Perisher, 2-6 Thredbo & 3-10 for Cabramurra.
Going way to far north to be a good one
Wish their trends had been upgrades over the past few days. Looking like a nice top up but no big accumulation.
The charts we have been looking at are predictions have a look at the actual front passing over SA on the radar is it travelling to far north maybe not.
I reckon maybe a 40% chance that some of the lower portion will get pushed down into Victoria.
Looks like a good dump to me.charts dont show the effects of orographic lift
No really big rain events anywhere to ruin what has fallen yet.
This will help somewhat.
I'm sorry.. But I'm seeing nothing but an upgrade on the charts.
I'm prepared to call 25+cm for NSW. A little less for VIC.
I cant see this thing doing much...10 cm if lucky IMO.
I'm heading up to Thredbo (kids races) this weekend so will report from Friday.
Just looking at the radar, it could mostly fly north for only 5-10.
I think the high should push it down and much higher falls i would think. IMO
#disclaimer...no vested interest fyi Stephen James Allan!
Geez , how often have we wanted the hook to be further north - well this is just too north
yeah its North.
NSW will get snow in strange spots
80cm at BB!? That's a cracker season
It is great , just hope we don't get too much precip and it stays cold, we do get excited when BB has this amount of cover
Canobolas system. More snow at De Salis winery...
the "things" a bit of a dud . maybe will produce 5cm in vic and nsw today
Yep its looks like bit of a DUD to me.
Expecting a bit of dump-age very shortly
5-15 i reckon.
it's a hard one though not a dud.
It's looked like not being a direct hit for a good 3 days.
The last two days suggested lower moisture levels than originally suggested, but given the erratic nature of so many of our systems & this one in particular Im putting on optimistic glasses that may yet get a pleasant fall. Snowing nicely @ Petisher after a light start at 9 am
Optimistic glasses replaced by reality.
On Monday I suggested " The Thing " would be a flop. Is it to early to call yet.
So far the only place that seems to be reporting anything of note is Selwyn " dumping down" is the term used. This fits with the northerly aspect to this front that was predicted earlier ion the week.
Maybe a little bit more in it overnight. It's not over til the fat lady things.
The next event can be called DONZA, in honour... A real aggressive drop
Sticking to the #4dayrule it's gone about as I expected. Maybe 5cm unders over the 3 day event duration.
Da thing has run out of juice. Just a dusting but not enough to full in yesterday's crud.