Predictions Predictions 9th - 13th August #thething

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2015.

  1. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    503
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    Looking best for Selwyn at the moment IMO. Then Perisher / Threbdo, then Vic majors.
     
  2. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2014
    Messages:
    1,015
    Likes Received:
    2,193
    Location:
    A whiter shade of pale
    I predict I'm going to the snow for a day this week, but given the choice between tomorrow [Wednesday] or Friday, at Mt Buller, what would be the preference for those who can read the charts far better than I can? Priority is good snow, wind and fog I can deal with.
     
  3. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2012
    Messages:
    20,740
    Likes Received:
    6,791
    Location:
    Melb
    I expect the fog to prevail till it turns NW.
    Penciled Wed Thurs in hoping there is enough to stay in the tree line.
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    • Temps Excellent
    • Wind not too windy
    • Low Pressure low
    • A wee bit cut off but connected to the main cold pool.
    • This looks pretty good just wondering when it will clear
    • I think could for 20 to 40 cm main range.
    [​IMG]
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    Wednesday resort.

    Friday back country. Its a bit warmer friday
     
    rime noreason likes this.
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,316
    Likes Received:
    50,551
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Not really cut-off for mine, but the low is fraction further north than optimal. Looks good for NSW
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    I used the word wee bit.

    This system is good for aspects that don't face east. Opens up a lot of possibilities.

    [​IMG]


    Satellite looks solid

    [​IMG]
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Pushing way harder into SA than optimal.
     
    Wardy and Claude Cat like this.
  9. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,594
    Likes Received:
    1,393
    Location:
    Victoria
    What time is this expected to hit falls?
     
  10. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,164
    Likes Received:
    1,372
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    Weatherzone going for 5cm for Buller tomorrow

    What are people's thoughts, on the money or can Buller expect more?
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,316
    Likes Received:
    50,551
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Just to give you the timing...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    You can also see how the moisture spins around central Victoria and why NSW will do well, while southern Vic will not IMO.
     
    Chondro likes this.
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,316
    Likes Received:
    50,551
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    See above. Buller's not going to do well out of this IMO.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    I think the Hume is in trouble again...
     
  14. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,164
    Likes Received:
    1,372
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    Ah well, just hasn't, been Bullers year!
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,316
    Likes Received:
    50,551
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Well, it's not disastrous, after all.
     
  16. beard07

    beard07 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 29, 2014
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    18
    Adelaide has just dropped temps to under 10 degrees just now
     
  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    30,096
    Likes Received:
    13,358
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    I figure so, more yass/gunning than southern highlands though.
     
  18. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,164
    Likes Received:
    1,372
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    True, still getting a few CMs and most of mountain open!

    Sorry - off topic
     
  19. incogski

    incogski One of Us

    Joined:
    May 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,645
    Likes Received:
    396
    Location:
    Sydney
    BOM has dropped their forecast to 2-6cm for Thredbo
     
  20. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2003
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    754
    NSW BOM predict 2-5 for Perisher, 2-6 Thredbo & 3-10 for Cabramurra.
     
  21. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    627
    Likes Received:
    858
    Going way to far north to be a good one
     
    The Plowking and Mctavish like this.
  22. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2003
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    754
    Wish their trends had been upgrades over the past few days. Looking like a nice top up but no big accumulation.
     
  23. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    677
    Likes Received:
    483
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    The charts we have been looking at are predictions have a look at the actual front passing over SA on the radar is it travelling to far north maybe not.
     
  24. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2004
    Messages:
    2,620
    Likes Received:
    446
    Location:
    Victoria
    I reckon maybe a 40% chance that some of the lower portion will get pushed down into Victoria.
     
  25. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,138
    Likes Received:
    159
    Location:
    cronulla nsw
    Looks like a good dump to me.charts dont show the effects of orographic lift
     
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    This.
    No really big rain events anywhere to ruin what has fallen yet.
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    This will help somewhat.
     
  28. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    17,103
    Likes Received:
    11,514
    Location:
    Eastern Subs Syd
    I'm sorry.. But I'm seeing nothing but an upgrade on the charts.

    I'm prepared to call 25+cm for NSW. A little less for VIC.

    [​IMG]
     
    7wombathead and SnowBound like this.
  29. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,623
    Likes Received:
    1,583
    Location:
    Melb - DPlain
    I cant see this thing doing much...10 cm if lucky IMO.
    I'm heading up to Thredbo (kids races) this weekend so will report from Friday.
     
  30. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2003
    Messages:
    128
    Likes Received:
    65
    Location:
    Mona Vale, NSW
    Just looking at the radar, it could mostly fly north for only 5-10.
    I think the high should push it down and much higher falls i would think. IMO
    #disclaimer...no vested interest fyi Stephen James Allan!
     
    Mctavish, 7wombathead and Majikthise like this.
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Geez , how often have we wanted the hook to be further north - well this is just too north
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    yeah its North.
    NSW will get snow in strange spots
     
  33. SuskiQ

    SuskiQ Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 1999
    Messages:
    12,766
    Likes Received:
    1,631
    Location:
    Mostly Australia
    80cm at BB!? That's a cracker season :D
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  34. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    442
    Location:
    Melbourne, Baw Baw
    It is great , just hope we don't get too much precip and it stays cold, we do get excited when BB has this amount of cover :woohoo:
     
  35. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    503
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    Canobolas system. More snow at De Salis winery...
     
  36. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2000
    Messages:
    3,213
    Likes Received:
    117
    Location:
    tasmania
    the "things" a bit of a dud . maybe will produce 5cm in vic and nsw today
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    Yep its looks like bit of a DUD to me.

    Expecting a bit of :crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap: dump-age very shortly:whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle:

    [​IMG]
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    5-15 i reckon.
    it's a hard one though not a dud.
    It's looked like not being a direct hit for a good 3 days.
     
  39. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2003
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    754
    The last two days suggested lower moisture levels than originally suggested, but given the erratic nature of so many of our systems & this one in particular Im putting on optimistic glasses that may yet get a pleasant fall. Snowing nicely @ Petisher after a light start at 9 am
     
  40. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2003
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    754
    Optimistic glasses replaced by reality.
     
    dawooduck and Gamera MC like this.
  41. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    627
    Likes Received:
    858
    On Monday I suggested " The Thing " would be a flop. Is it to early to call yet.
     
  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    2,134
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    So far the only place that seems to be reporting anything of note is Selwyn " dumping down" is the term used. This fits with the northerly aspect to this front that was predicted earlier ion the week.
     
  43. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,176
    Likes Received:
    1,600
    Location:
    Sydney
    Maybe a little bit more in it overnight. It's not over til the fat lady things.:rolleyes:
     
    #243 PMG, Aug 12, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2015
  44. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    58,434
    Likes Received:
    27,599
    Location:
    East Coast
  45. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    275
    The next event can be called DONZA, in honour... A real aggressive drop
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Sticking to the #4dayrule it's gone about as I expected. Maybe 5cm unders over the 3 day event duration.
     
  47. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2005
    Messages:
    22,923
    Likes Received:
    9,720
    Location:
    Pissed off elsewhere
    Da thing has run out of juice. Just a dusting but not enough to full in yesterday's crud.
     
  48. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2005
    Messages:
    22,923
    Likes Received:
    9,720
    Location:
    Pissed off elsewhere
    Da thing has run out of juice. Just a dusting but not enough to full in yesterday's crud.
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
     
  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,594
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic