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Predictions Predictions 9th - 13th August #thething

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2015.

  1. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Looking best for Selwyn at the moment IMO. Then Perisher / Threbdo, then Vic majors.
     
  2. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us

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    I predict I'm going to the snow for a day this week, but given the choice between tomorrow [Wednesday] or Friday, at Mt Buller, what would be the preference for those who can read the charts far better than I can? Priority is good snow, wind and fog I can deal with.
     
  3. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I expect the fog to prevail till it turns NW.
    Penciled Wed Thurs in hoping there is enough to stay in the tree line.
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    • Temps Excellent
    • Wind not too windy
    • Low Pressure low
    • A wee bit cut off but connected to the main cold pool.
    • This looks pretty good just wondering when it will clear
    • I think could for 20 to 40 cm main range.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Wednesday resort.

    Friday back country. Its a bit warmer friday
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not really cut-off for mine, but the low is fraction further north than optimal. Looks good for NSW
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I used the word wee bit.

    This system is good for aspects that don't face east. Opens up a lot of possibilities.

    [​IMG]


    Satellite looks solid

    [​IMG]
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pushing way harder into SA than optimal.
     
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  9. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    What time is this expected to hit falls?
     
  10. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weatherzone going for 5cm for Buller tomorrow

    What are people's thoughts, on the money or can Buller expect more?
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just to give you the timing...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    You can also see how the moisture spins around central Victoria and why NSW will do well, while southern Vic will not IMO.
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    See above. Buller's not going to do well out of this IMO.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think the Hume is in trouble again...
     
  14. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ah well, just hasn't, been Bullers year!
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well, it's not disastrous, after all.
     
  16. beard07

    beard07 Hard Yards

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    Adelaide has just dropped temps to under 10 degrees just now
     
  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I figure so, more yass/gunning than southern highlands though.
     
  18. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    True, still getting a few CMs and most of mountain open!

    Sorry - off topic
     
  19. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    BOM has dropped their forecast to 2-6cm for Thredbo
     
  20. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM predict 2-5 for Perisher, 2-6 Thredbo & 3-10 for Cabramurra.
     
  21. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Going way to far north to be a good one
     
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  22. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wish their trends had been upgrades over the past few days. Looking like a nice top up but no big accumulation.
     
  23. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    The charts we have been looking at are predictions have a look at the actual front passing over SA on the radar is it travelling to far north maybe not.
     
  24. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I reckon maybe a 40% chance that some of the lower portion will get pushed down into Victoria.
     
  25. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Looks like a good dump to me.charts dont show the effects of orographic lift
     
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
    No really big rain events anywhere to ruin what has fallen yet.
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This will help somewhat.
     
  28. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm sorry.. But I'm seeing nothing but an upgrade on the charts.

    I'm prepared to call 25+cm for NSW. A little less for VIC.

    [​IMG]
     
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  29. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    I cant see this thing doing much...10 cm if lucky IMO.
    I'm heading up to Thredbo (kids races) this weekend so will report from Friday.
     
  30. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    Just looking at the radar, it could mostly fly north for only 5-10.
    I think the high should push it down and much higher falls i would think. IMO
    #disclaimer...no vested interest fyi Stephen James Allan!
     
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  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geez , how often have we wanted the hook to be further north - well this is just too north
     
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  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah its North.
    NSW will get snow in strange spots
     
  33. SuskiQ

    SuskiQ Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    80cm at BB!? That's a cracker season :D
     
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  34. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    It is great , just hope we don't get too much precip and it stays cold, we do get excited when BB has this amount of cover :woohoo:
     
  35. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Canobolas system. More snow at De Salis winery...
     
  36. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    the "things" a bit of a dud . maybe will produce 5cm in vic and nsw today
     
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  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yep its looks like bit of a DUD to me.

    Expecting a bit of :crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap: dump-age very shortly:whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle:

    [​IMG]
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    5-15 i reckon.
    it's a hard one though not a dud.
    It's looked like not being a direct hit for a good 3 days.
     
  39. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The last two days suggested lower moisture levels than originally suggested, but given the erratic nature of so many of our systems & this one in particular Im putting on optimistic glasses that may yet get a pleasant fall. Snowing nicely @ Petisher after a light start at 9 am
     
  40. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Optimistic glasses replaced by reality.
     
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  41. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    On Monday I suggested " The Thing " would be a flop. Is it to early to call yet.
     
  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    So far the only place that seems to be reporting anything of note is Selwyn " dumping down" is the term used. This fits with the northerly aspect to this front that was predicted earlier ion the week.
     
  43. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a little bit more in it overnight. It's not over til the fat lady things.:rolleyes:
     
    #243 PMG, Aug 12, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2015
  44. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    The next event can be called DONZA, in honour... A real aggressive drop
     
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  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sticking to the #4dayrule it's gone about as I expected. Maybe 5cm unders over the 3 day event duration.
     
  47. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

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    Da thing has run out of juice. Just a dusting but not enough to full in yesterday's crud.
     
  48. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

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    Pissed off elsewhere
    Da thing has run out of juice. Just a dusting but not enough to full in yesterday's crud.
     
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  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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