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Predictions: 9th-15th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Right now as it stands, EC has something brewing around these dates. IMO this is the dump we are looking for - highs around it are weak, plenty of room for the system to push through. At this stage I think we will see at least 20-30cm but potentially a lot more:

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Not so sure... that looks fairly warm to me... but plenty of room to improve [​IMG]
     
    #2 ice_man, Jul 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Spag likes IMO
     
  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Yep, could very well be some initial pre-frontal but plenty of juice behind it IMO
     
    #4 FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  5. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Not warm those days IMO
     
    #5 skiflat, Jul 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    IMO EC shows a bit of prefrontal on the 6th, but looks solid after that.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    The timing of this will be critical on Tuesday night
    [​IMG]

    Quite cold on Wednesday.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #6 Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    GFS has zippo on this one too.
    IMO
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Cc...I'm not sure that's prefrontal. . I think that's the front..alot lower lattitudes moisture stream than past
     
  9. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Nice 5 node build up over Antartica. Notice that big fat node right under us on the -90 meridian.
    [​IMG]
     
    #9 nisstrust, Jul 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    First 10mm could be snow above 1800m, but 20 to 30cm to follow as it currently stands IMO
     
    #10 Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    So much bubble at the furious fiftties...best bubble ...potential for vicco this season
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Looks flat as tack on EC today. IMO
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Reckon it'll r@*n IMO, CC. At Falls 8-11th and clearly cursed so far this year...
     
    #13 mick chopps, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    mick thats my weekend

    [​IMG]
    to be honest I see alot of room for this to move into the positive
     
    #14 Donza, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  15. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    I arrive on the 10th

    A lot of positive indicators (other than that!) IMO

    I agree with donza, watch this space
     
  16. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    When donza mentions Victoria, the crickets get excited
     
  17. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    #17 Hermon, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Yeah been watching that
    I'm in two minds...existing shape..yes it will get warm
    However i'm debating the shape we see on the models at moment isn't correct.
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    GFS not even keen...
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Very meh. Flat like EC IMO
     
    #20 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Haven't seen EC for this arvo yet
     
    #21 Donza, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    I was referring to this morning's EC run.
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    GFS in three runs has had three polar opposite shapes temps and outcomes..

    Its not to be trusted at all.
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    GFS has in three runs offered this
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 Donza, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Then
    [​IMG]
     
    #25 Donza, Jul 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    00UTC EC has a whole lot of nothing imo.
     
  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    yuck thats a nasty belt of high pressure.
     
  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    A major factor in what might occur next week is the upper high that looks like establishing itself over the NT. Take a look at the 500 HPa charts and you can see it pushing the sub-tropical jet southward to block any polar fronts from getting anywhere near us. A very similar upper high was responsible for last summer's heatwave. Until it somehow gets shoved out of the way or a tropical disturbance enters the scene (not likely in August), then we will continue to be disappointed.

    I'm almost at the point of writing this season off. I hope I'm wrong.
     
  29. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Beat ya to it! I wrote it off over the weekend. It's going to take a dump of biblical proportions to salvage Season 2013.
     
    #29 kimberlee81, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    While not the original system as predicted here, EC is showing a fair bit of moisture on the 7th.
    Freeze levels will be marginal, a system for 1600m+ IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Models starting to twitch in this period.
    GFS showing some love.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    I'm starting to get some decent feelings re this period hey.
     
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Off topic
     
  34. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Off topic
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Off topic
     
  36. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    00Z GFS maintains the inland heatwave for the early part of this period. It does however suggest one of the largest cold pools I have ever seen developing South of Perth around August 7 with the High buzzing off to NZ. Something to watch with interest...
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    That cold pool is mentioned in the epic thread.
     
    #37 Donza, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Pretty large IMO, but potential to slide away

    [​IMG]
     
    #38 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Its starting to get some shape and room to move
    Yesterday we just had a flat jelly fish ridge
    Room to move IMO
     
  40. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    ^^Some crazy temperature gradients are likely in any case IMO.

    Example - OCF maximums for August 8: Mildura 23.0c, Bendigo 14.4c.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    What to make of this afternoon's EC run?
    The big cold front stalls over WA (again) IMO and we get a wacky shaped system in the east.
    Not sure the models are getting any firm handle on this one yet.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    GFS does look more promising IMO, but with very little agreement between models, it's not really worth much.

    [​IMG]
     
    #42 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    yeah my thoughts...there is something coming...I feel. .
     
    #43 Donza, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Agreed - no firm grasp just yet, models still having enough difficulty trying to predict what will happen this weekend let alone next.....
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #45 Donza, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  46. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Just hope it isn't called Summer!
     
    #46 kimberlee81, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  47. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Statistically - we should see the complete opposite to what we have had so far - or more of the same.

    Looking back over the years - has there been a year like this with "weather" that did not eventually turn to mass pukeage by mid August.

    Send this to the BBQ thread if you want to. But it is time to talk it up a bit and get some positive vibe back out there and get the local industry cracking again in August...
     
    #47 rocketboy, Jul 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  48. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    The AAO forecasts on the NOAA website have been progressively improving, so perhaps time for a bit of optimism.

    Some years have seen a rubbish July and then epic August or September (i.e 1984, 1992, 1994, 2005, even 2001 to an extent).
    Some years have seen a rubbish July and then not much after that (1982, 1988, 2006).

    2001 is an interesting parallel given that ocean temps were similarly warm. Mid-August (17th-24th) went bananas (one week of epic dumpage, but then that was it).
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    Spag node is legit...
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 6th-10th August

    This looks better every day IMO