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Predictions: 9th-15th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013.

  1. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    14th on GFS looking quite good IMO, much better SW front than the marginal stuff we've been seeing lately. Was thinking about a trip this weekend but looking at the amount of fronts pushing through I'm happy to hold it off for a bit.
     
  2. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    So with the swings in the models, whats the general consensus of snow fall this fri/sat?
     
  3. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Janes Forecast out, she going for 10-15 Tomorrow and 15-25 friday clearing on saturday.
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Later dates in this period look grand tonight.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Indeed.

    [​IMG]

    IMO
     
    #155 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    12Z AXS-G looks very pretty for Monday evening. 18Z GFS looking quite nice too - especially for Tuesday.
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Latest AXS_R.... 20-35cm of snow Friday into midday sat
    Though the timing is critical
    I don't think it will warm up much
    EC has some decent temps.
    wow IMO wee
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Funny GFS not even interested..
     
  9. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    ^^ Yep. Freeze level not that great. But I think it's wrong IMO. Next week looks sweet as on GFS... 700Hpa chart gives a great indication of what could be in store.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO forget about GFS, it's been useless all year. It couldn't even get today right on yesterday's afternoons run.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Friday is still more of a "clipper".
    I expect EC to be similar to this afternoon's UKmet

    [​IMG]
     
    #161 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC also has a clipper for Friday and over by Saturday IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Then on Monday

    [​IMG]

    But backing off anything substantial after that.
     
    #162 Claude Cat, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Tues next week looking epic.
    [​IMG]
     
    #163 slalom pete, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  14. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ????

    Tuesday looks fantastic on GFS (and I agree hasn't been at all good thus far this year)

    Very cold, snow down below 1000

    20cm hotham, falls, maybe more at Buller

    I suppose nsw less moisture may be what you are referring to...

    IMO.
     
    #164 Karicta, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay Donald... (and CC)
    I've had a look through the charts and I can certainly see plenty of moisture for Friday/Saturday but temps/freeze levels look touch and go IMO. Looks borderline >1600-1700m to me .
    What is your reason for being so bullish about temps? You think the models are over-estimating the warming off the back of this current storm?
     
    #165 mick chopps, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  16. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Monday 12th and Saturday 17th both look huge IMO on EC this morning. Someone please confirm temps will be cold enough.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sorry I was talking about Sat.

    It just keep on keeping on hey.
     
    #167 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    hey bro
    To answer your question.. The 850hpa temps (over the alps) are still shown to be in a decent range...while the moisture is there.
    As are the 500's..(they seem to be pushing in front of the change).
    Yeah its usually a result of residual cold air (the cold pool was very slow)..also at ground level you'll find that the temp will stay down unless it really gets under the influence of a warmer jet.
     
    #168 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers, thought so.

    I noticed snow reported around orange/blackheath, Mt Macedon etc last night and today. Perhaps an indication of how the models have struggled with the strength of the cold pool.
     
  20. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday, but more partic Tuesday looking HUGE on EC this morn

    As Donza says, the cold air moves through by the time the bulk of the moisture hits, maybe a little clear stuff to start below 1800

    But, other models don't have the same temps (ie warmer, but a bit less moisture too)
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    To be honest I sorta expected that...
    Those slow moving cold pools can drop snow to lower levels cause there are none of them pesky winds to break up these
    [​IMG]

    Thats a stellar plate (or big ole fluffy) ...seen in -2 to -3 and neg -12 to -15
    Maybe even a few dendrites as well
    Very overseas type snow
    If its windy..like a typical system..Wind will bash these into little flakes.. That don't fall as low..
    Whereas a classic snowflake can fall through temps that are above 0
    If the humidity is supporting...ie around 85%
     
    #171 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I believe it won't be able to warm up before it starts again on Friday, after very cold temps tonight. So, that, in combo with the moisture will bring huge snowfalls (20-40cm, possibly 60cm). Look at that wonderful tropical moisture fetch on the satellite west of WA. If there was sun and many daylight hours before it started on Friday then it would be different, but the timing will work for us.
    I'm not sure yet about Monday, how much will fall as rain. I'll know tonight.
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    stop it jane- giggidly
    [​IMG]

    Yeah thats what makes good seasons 2/3 day turnarounds.
     
    #173 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  24. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    No emoticon sufficiently happy to post
     
    #174 Karicta, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2.
    Foot.
    Storm.

    Bro.
     
    #175 mick chopps, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #176 skiflat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    TBh i'm not that sure...
    I think hotham and falls will get some..but the in feed looks to me to be getting pushed a bit south
     
    #177 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]


    Buller
     
    #178 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS doesn't look great for Saturday, but I think EC is closer to the mark - looks pretty dry to me.
    I think Friday will bring snow, perhaps 10cm in the south, less further north, as this is just a clipper.

    [​IMG]

    IMO
     
    #179 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  30. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yeah Nah for Monday looks grand
     
  31. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Thinking I will finally get up this weekend. Saturday looking alright, despite the crowds.
    I'm going 20-25cm Friday - sat lunch for Buller.
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was being humorous pal, Jane stole our thunder. AXS-R looks pretty decent for Friday to me CC. Vic to do better then NSW. IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    #182 mick chopps, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Monday has plenty of moisture, I'm just worried that initially freeze levels will be 1600-1800m then lowering.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    As it stands I can easily see 30 - 50cm depending upon the elevation.
     
    #183 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS for Monday

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    IMO while 850hPa's aren't that cold, uppers at -25C are pretty reasonable, so that should help
     
    #184 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS not seeing much in Friday & Saturday either IMO
    (for what it's worth)

    [​IMG]
     
    #185 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  36. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    EC>AccessR>AccessG>GFS
     
  37. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I'm disappointed in the downgrade with GFS. Ocean temps and non-existent MJO pulse are really stuffing the models around. Perth was decidedly tropical overnight with a Min temp of 16c and 44mm of rain.

    Hopefully enough cold air gets injected into the mix which may happen in the uppers at least this Friday night. But will still be quite marginal IMO.
     
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    GFS has been unreliable to put it nicely
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Jane is going for 20-40cm tomorrow but looking at the charts (BOM 4 day) I'm not sure where it's going to come from.....?

    Could be another surprise dump on the cards.......
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That would be off AXS-R IMO
    I don't see so much on EC/UKmet or GFS.
    AXS-R does have a good track record for short term predictions, so I wouldn't right it off.
    To me it's at the upper bounds of possibility.
     
    #190 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've got to say the satellite picture is very encouraging.

    [​IMG]

    Plenty of moisture - but will it slip south or push through to the alps?
    Most models have the former, but AXS-R is going with the latter IMO
     
    #191 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    ^^ Pineapple express colliding with polar modified airmass = who knows?

    There might even be multiple freeze levels tomorrow too. Wacky.
     
  43. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can't yet see any evidence of a southerly slide

    Jane's confidence is very encouraging too
     
  44. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    lets hope that monday - tuesday are more snow then rain. whats the current feel on these two dates?
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO this is bullseye Hotham
     
  46. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It's already 30c on the Nullabor today. Hopefully that heat stays away from us!

    As for the moisture content, Bickley in the Darling Ranges near Perth have copped 100mm since 4pm yesterday!
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Friday still looking like a clipper on 00UTC GFS.
    IMO
     
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looks great on the wz synoptic.
     
  49. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Anybody keen to make a call from freeze level / moisture for NSW?
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good on Bom 4 dayer also IMO. Troughy.