Predictions: 9th-15th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What day?
     
    #201 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Doesn't look like it's been updated yet.
     
    #202 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Furry muff. Outdated chart looks good IMO. [​IMG]
     
    #203 mick chopps, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    it just updated.

    [​IMG]

    I *still* think friday is a clipper!

    But Monday looks awesome

    IMO
     
    #204 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Monday looks good
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still going with a cut-off IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #206 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I predict wind hold.
     
    #207 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  8. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    24-48 hours? or is most of the goodness coming Monday onwards
     
    #208 Neslot, Aug 8, 2013
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  9. macdaddy

    macdaddy One of Us

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    Hi CC. Do you predict this all weekend, or just tomorrow?
     
    #209 macdaddy, Aug 8, 2013
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've been putting both.
    IMO
    Friday/Saturday is a clipper. Better in the south 15-20cm at this stage. Cold system, good down to 1100m.
    Windy though.

    Monday/Tuesday is big. 40-80cm - higher elevations will do better. Initially warmer on Monday (1600m and above) but the snow level drops as the system moves through. Monday appears to be quite windy too.
     
  11. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    If CC is calling a 3 foot storm then WOW

    Mon/Tue looks good

    I am not set on Friday/Saturday either
     
  12. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Freeze levels over Vic alps on 00Z GFS drop from 2000m to 1400m overnight Friday, but by then it dries up.

    Monday night -Wednesday has the potential for 30-40cm IMO.
     
  13. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Very much a clipper but totals look good
     
    #213 Alfred14, Aug 8, 2013
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  14. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Wind hold Saturday do you think CC?
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Saturday should be ok IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #215 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    850 temps look passable for friday night

    hence why snow rather than rain is forecast.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Saturday looks to be clearing fast with moderate winds.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Friday system clears off before it warms up.

    GFS backing away on moisture levels for Friday to Saturday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #218 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO i'd put more faith in axs
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'll put more faith in EC [​IMG]
    CMC is showing only a dusting for Friday IMO
     
    #220 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Or Jane?- she is being very bullish..
    You putting your faith in jane?
     
    #221 Donza, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  22. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ^^A Jane doubter! Burn him, burn him!!!!!!!!!!
     
  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Clipper schmipper

    The nw feed is on a collision course for the vic resorts IMO

    I wouldn't be confident if not for Jane though
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'm somewhere between
    More than GFS and EC (cc) and less than jane
    15-20cm to 1500 with 65kmph winds
    clearing out fast.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Isn't that what I predicted above? Although I think it will be cooler than that.

     
    #226 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  27. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Not really sold on good moisture, as for snow or r@#n after the frozen wet stuff falling from the sky at Hotham on Saturday Arvo Im struggling to see marginal temps turn to snow. It was minus 2 or 3 heading back to camp on Saturday and we were covered in molten ice. hence my novice attempt at the above prediction.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00UTC UKmet somewhere between GFS and AXS (this morning) for Friday. I expect EC to be similar.
    IMO
     
  29. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    bom nsw doesn't sound positive about snow till Monday.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's because it's a clipper. Tomorrow will definitely favour Vic & Tasmania. So long as it's cold enough.
    IMO
     
    #230 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  31. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    13 tomorrow in MEL is good
    18 Saturday and next week in MEL is not good
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Struggling to see 18 on sat for melb myself.
    Maybe Sunday.
    Friday temps.... Hmmmmm.
    Not convinced. Lots of prefrontal that may not be cold enough imo.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC EC shows clipper tomorrow, dry by Saturday.
    Slightly worried about the 850s tomorrow.

    Lots of moisture Monday.
    IMO
     
  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kind of like eastern USA/canada. Warm uppers, cold surface temps last wknd
     
    #234 The Plowking, Aug 8, 2013
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  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    All very confused
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I revise tomorrow down to 10cm above 1500m in the south, and a dusting in NSW.
    (Based on latest EC run)
     
  37. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold pool hanging around falls and hotham

    A lot of warming required for it to fall clear, don't think it will

    Cloud intensifying in northern bight. Break away stream heading more north?

    Still can't see why Jane isn't right, although the upper end of her prediction is a long way from the models...

    IMO.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Friday is just a side show IMO
    Monday's where's it at.
    Concern to me is that the freeze level will be 1800m for a fair part of the moisture band on Monday,.
    Generally not a great set of updates this afternoon.
     
  39. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personally I am struggling to read Friday, Jane's prediction took it from sideshow to a potential real event

    But IMO Tuesday more interesting than Monday
     
    #239 Karicta, Aug 8, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to me that it's drying out quite fast on Tuesday (EC) IMO.
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC, TWC and GFS v AXS and EC on timing

    So, you are prob backing the right horse
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    #242 Rush, Aug 8, 2013
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  43. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Jane still likes tomorrow calling 20-40cm perhaps more........
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh kind of happy that the moisture for tomorrow has backed off.
     
    #244 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2013
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  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll be alright guys have some faith.
     
  46. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

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    I'm on it, the tropical stream is more WNW instead of the usual NW feed. We're looking at a longer stream of 'direct-hit' moisture, and cold seeing as most of the feed has missed the red centre. IMO
     
  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Will NSW resorts miss out today and will we see it favor VIC resorts - Donz, CC?
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking at the radar, they (NSW) should do ok IMO
    Looking a lot more promising that last night.
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Underwhelming nsw bom is wrong imo
     
  50. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    I'm sticking with my original 20/25cm for Buller, radar and temps looking good, rain band is definitely further north than I thought it would be.