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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013.
Doesn't look like it's been updated yet.
Furry muff. Outdated chart looks good IMO.
it just updated.
I *still* think friday is a clipper!
But Monday looks awesome
Monday looks good
GFS still going with a cut-off IMO
I predict wind hold.
24-48 hours? or is most of the goodness coming Monday onwards
Hi CC. Do you predict this all weekend, or just tomorrow?
I've been putting both.
Friday/Saturday is a clipper. Better in the south 15-20cm at this stage. Cold system, good down to 1100m.
Monday/Tuesday is big. 40-80cm - higher elevations will do better. Initially warmer on Monday (1600m and above) but the snow level drops as the system moves through. Monday appears to be quite windy too.
If CC is calling a 3 foot storm then WOW
Mon/Tue looks good
I am not set on Friday/Saturday either
Freeze levels over Vic alps on 00Z GFS drop from 2000m to 1400m overnight Friday, but by then it dries up.
Monday night -Wednesday has the potential for 30-40cm IMO.
Very much a clipper but totals look good
Wind hold Saturday do you think CC?
Saturday should be ok IMO
850 temps look passable for friday night
hence why snow rather than rain is forecast.
Saturday looks to be clearing fast with moderate winds.
IMO Friday system clears off before it warms up.
GFS backing away on moisture levels for Friday to Saturday.
IMO i'd put more faith in axs
I'll put more faith in EC
CMC is showing only a dusting for Friday IMO
Or Jane?- she is being very bullish..
You putting your faith in jane?
^^A Jane doubter! Burn him, burn him!!!!!!!!!!
The nw feed is on a collision course for the vic resorts IMO
I wouldn't be confident if not for Jane though
I'm somewhere between
More than GFS and EC (cc) and less than jane
15-20cm to 1500 with 65kmph winds
clearing out fast.
Stay on topic.
Isn't that what I predicted above? Although I think it will be cooler than that.
Not really sold on good moisture, as for snow or r@#n after the frozen wet stuff falling from the sky at Hotham on Saturday Arvo Im struggling to see marginal temps turn to snow. It was minus 2 or 3 heading back to camp on Saturday and we were covered in molten ice. hence my novice attempt at the above prediction.
00UTC UKmet somewhere between GFS and AXS (this morning) for Friday. I expect EC to be similar.
bom nsw doesn't sound positive about snow till Monday.
That's because it's a clipper. Tomorrow will definitely favour Vic & Tasmania. So long as it's cold enough.
13 tomorrow in MEL is good
18 Saturday and next week in MEL is not good
Struggling to see 18 on sat for melb myself.
Friday temps.... Hmmmmm.
Not convinced. Lots of prefrontal that may not be cold enough imo.
00 UTC EC shows clipper tomorrow, dry by Saturday.
Slightly worried about the 850s tomorrow.
Lots of moisture Monday.
Kind of like eastern USA/canada. Warm uppers, cold surface temps last wknd
All very confused
IMO I revise tomorrow down to 10cm above 1500m in the south, and a dusting in NSW.
(Based on latest EC run)
Cold pool hanging around falls and hotham
A lot of warming required for it to fall clear, don't think it will
Cloud intensifying in northern bight. Break away stream heading more north?
Still can't see why Jane isn't right, although the upper end of her prediction is a long way from the models...
Friday is just a side show IMO
Monday's where's it at.
Concern to me is that the freeze level will be 1800m for a fair part of the moisture band on Monday,.
Generally not a great set of updates this afternoon.
Personally I am struggling to read Friday, Jane's prediction took it from sideshow to a potential real event
But IMO Tuesday more interesting than Monday
Looks to me that it's drying out quite fast on Tuesday (EC) IMO.
CMC, TWC and GFS v AXS and EC on timing
So, you are prob backing the right horse
Jane still likes tomorrow calling 20-40cm perhaps more........
Yeh kind of happy that the moisture for tomorrow has backed off.
It'll be alright guys have some faith.
I'm on it, the tropical stream is more WNW instead of the usual NW feed. We're looking at a longer stream of 'direct-hit' moisture, and cold seeing as most of the feed has missed the red centre. IMO
Will NSW resorts miss out today and will we see it favor VIC resorts - Donz, CC?
Looking at the radar, they (NSW) should do ok IMO
Looking a lot more promising that last night.
Underwhelming nsw bom is wrong imo
I'm sticking with my original 20/25cm for Buller, radar and temps looking good, rain band is definitely further north than I thought it would be.