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Predictions: 9th-15th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013.

  1. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta be more than 25 in it boorsay

    Sustained feed, many hours of goodness IMO.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Definitely warming up in the SW.
    We'd look like getting most of the moisture in the next couple of hours, because it could get ugly after that.
     
  3. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    interesting isn't it?
    Got up at 6am for my ride and did my normal weather site run around and it was a bit underwhelming
    Then I looked at the BOM Melbourne 256km radar!
    AXS-R has in its defence good moisture penetration to the border IMO
    Looks like 2 or 3 good 3 hr blocks of 10-15mm ppn
    Fingers crossed
     
    #253 MisterMxyzptlk, Aug 9, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Early Monday shaping up wet below 1800m but improving late in the day for a good burst of snow. IMO
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM have updated their warning.

     
    #255 Claude Cat, Aug 9, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS 00UTC Monday looking ok-ish albeit a little warm first up IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    And a little follow-up Wednesday

    [​IMG]
     
    #256 Claude Cat, Aug 9, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 13, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC also on board with action on Wednesday & Thursday IMO
    On the flip side, moisture levels for Monday have backed off a bit.
     
  8. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    Monday is looking the goods on the charts this morning! Warming up a little Tuesday then Wednesday and Thursday again. Shaping up to be a good week of consistent snowfalls IMO
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Going on EC, much of the moisture falls on Monday and Wednesday with pretty high freeze levels i.e. > 1800m. But the time things cool down, the system dries up. IMO

    I've wound back my expectations for this one.
     
  10. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    Hmm that surprises me, what are your expectations now for the next few days in terms of accumulations
     
  11. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    I'd be looking at 10-15cm Monday then 5-10cm again Wednesday above 1500m NSW based on ACCESS-G
     
  12. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I think Wednesday still looks OK above 1500m for 10-15cm. Agree Monday is looking a little rough. Oh well looking forward as per the new thread is WOW at the moment.
     
  13. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM forecast for NSW Monday is 'rain falling as snow above 1700 meters and lowering to 1100 by evening'.
     
  14. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The following is from this very website's weather page:-

    Some more powder is on the way as well, mostly later today about the higher resorts, with much of the day providing skiable conditions, although it will be quite windy. Cold fronts will come in quick succession over the next two weeks meaning that there won't be long periods to enjoy the good snow depths. Fronts will arrive on Monday, Wednesday night and Sunday morning in the next week. The best days for hitting the slopes will be tomorrow (Sunday 11th), Wednesday, Friday and early Saturday. The front arriving next Sunday could be quite substantial, bringing a few days of snow into the next week.

    It seems slightly at odds with the predictions in here for the 9th - 15th...
     
    #264 kimberlee81, Aug 10, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems similar to me???
     
    #265 The Plowking, Aug 10, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  16. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Bom 4 day is looking pretty good for 5-10cm a day from tuesday.
     
  17. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some more powder is on the way as well, mostly later today about the higher resorts, with much of the day providing skiable conditions, although it will be quite windy.

    Looked bluebird pretty much everywhere.
     
    #267 kimberlee81, Aug 10, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  18. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    CC or Donza, how much prefrontal do you see tomorrow (Monday) for the front that's approaching below the snow line lowers?
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO this system won't be much chop below 1600 or 1700m.
    Might be ok for Perisher or Threbo up high.
     
  20. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM is forecasting snow for the NSW Snowies above 1000 meters from late morning and blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon and evening.
     
  21. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Interesting
     
  22. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Seems the cat was right and this system is pretty much a rain event....

    One word

    WESTERLY

    For today as it's not pretty up there at the moment (prediction/FACT)

    Should turn to snow later today, both GFS and ACCESS suggest about lunch time today for VIC and evening for NSW
    Then perhaps 5-10cms

    EC saying very similar
     
    #272 skiflat, Aug 12, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree SF
     
  24. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    850 temps all over the place, cold, warm, cold

    Westerlies SUCK

    I predict this time next week looks much better (see other thread)
     
  25. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    [​IMG]

    West
    West
    West

    Not a fan

    Needs more cold
     
    #275 skiflat, Aug 12, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 13, 2013
  26. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Persistent ridging upper High over NT is a major source of our lack of SWlys at present IMO. Grrrr.

    There is an interesting 'blob' of cold air with associated cloudband South of Adelaide at present that might produce some snow overnight/tomorrow morning.
     
  27. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    ACCESSR looks good for NSW for the next 24ish hours

    If you simply believe the charts 20cms for NSW, 10 for VIC

    Then another burst Wed night, maybe 10-15cms

    I am thinking less, perhaps 10-20cms ALL up by Thursday arvo
     
  28. ODNT

    ODNT Part of the Furniture

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    #278 ODNT, Aug 12, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  29. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah definitely better charts today on this, looks reasonable up high, could surprise...
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I don't like this much. Off EC it's a 1600m+ system, and will be wet for many of the lower resorts.
     
  31. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    base builder for the weekend CC!
     
  32. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I think it's touch and go below 1600 too

    However -6 at 700hpa and -24 at 500hpa by 4pm (when the bulk of the moisture is around) and cooling-on AXS

    Bom say falling as snow above 900mtrs from late morning, which I don't understand at all

    Overall net gain, say 10-15cm above 1500 and another 5-10 at 1800 IMO
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Cold uppers the only saviour with this one.
    Again it's going to be in the timing. IMO EC says moisture before the cold, but you never know.
     
  34. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I tend to disagree on this one. Tomorrow may be marginal temps and not great lower down but models indicate lower temps overnight into Thursday early morning with snow continuing to fall well into Wednesday evening. IMO 10-20cm range with snowfalls dropping lower than 1200m at times, mostly falling after lifts close making for good skiing Thursday morning.
     
  35. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    No one is saying it won't snow at lower levels, it almost certainly will. You are right, it does get nice and cold by late wed and there is still moisture around then

    But, the heavier moisture seems to be late arvo and as CC says, the timing of the cold air will, once again, be the determining factor as to whether this is a minor or medium event from top to bottom

    IMO
     
    #285 Karicta, Aug 13, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it's a close run thing.

    Looking at 18UTC GFS it all looks to happen around 06UTC, which is 4pm today, looks like the moisture is leading the cold, but not by a huge amount.
    It appears to be short, sharp front, I'm thinking 10mm rain, 10cm snow following at this stage. Above 1600m that could be all snow (ie 20cm).
     
  37. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Looks great for Perisher, Hotham/Falls for a solid 15-25cms

    Looks OK for Buller/Thredbo for a nice 10-15cms up high....

    Then we look forward to the weekend FACT
     
  38. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah concur, AXS-R looking really quite tasty for a short sharp burst
     
  39. Hacski

    Hacski Guest

    Is that for tonight into tomorrow? I've decided to go for a few hours and wonder if chains will be needed to the skitube, seeing I'm in the little town car?
     
    #289 Hacski, Aug 14, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 14, 2013
  40. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    U never "need" chains to get to the tube, they just make you put them on.
     
  41. WaitAwhile

    WaitAwhile One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    We had to put chains on at the end of June to get to the skitube and after getting there I thought they were being a bit over the top,but I guess you don't really know till after the fact.
    Yesterday the live RTA link on their website was saying chains at Perderlea but there website only referred to the Perisher Road and for a safer alternative take the skitube,when I drove up around half 8 no chains were needed.
    Do they not use salt or a suitable replacement on the alpine roads these days.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Followed a plough up from Wilson's Valley last week and he had a spreader wheel (fertilizer type) spinning on back end of his rig I assumed, I mean to say predicted, was salt .
     
  43. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I thought we used sand in Australia...? Thought salt was a bit too environmentally unfriendly.