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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 28, 2013.
Gotta be more than 25 in it boorsay
Sustained feed, many hours of goodness IMO.
Definitely warming up in the SW.
We'd look like getting most of the moisture in the next couple of hours, because it could get ugly after that.
interesting isn't it?
Got up at 6am for my ride and did my normal weather site run around and it was a bit underwhelming
Then I looked at the BOM Melbourne 256km radar!
AXS-R has in its defence good moisture penetration to the border IMO
Looks like 2 or 3 good 3 hr blocks of 10-15mm ppn
Early Monday shaping up wet below 1800m but improving late in the day for a good burst of snow. IMO
Vic BOM have updated their warning.
GFS 00UTC Monday looking ok-ish albeit a little warm first up IMO
And a little follow-up Wednesday
EC also on board with action on Wednesday & Thursday IMO
On the flip side, moisture levels for Monday have backed off a bit.
Monday is looking the goods on the charts this morning! Warming up a little Tuesday then Wednesday and Thursday again. Shaping up to be a good week of consistent snowfalls IMO
Going on EC, much of the moisture falls on Monday and Wednesday with pretty high freeze levels i.e. > 1800m. But the time things cool down, the system dries up. IMO
I've wound back my expectations for this one.
Hmm that surprises me, what are your expectations now for the next few days in terms of accumulations
I'd be looking at 10-15cm Monday then 5-10cm again Wednesday above 1500m NSW based on ACCESS-G
I think Wednesday still looks OK above 1500m for 10-15cm. Agree Monday is looking a little rough. Oh well looking forward as per the new thread is WOW at the moment.
BOM forecast for NSW Monday is 'rain falling as snow above 1700 meters and lowering to 1100 by evening'.
The following is from this very website's weather page:-
Some more powder is on the way as well, mostly later today about the higher resorts, with much of the day providing skiable conditions, although it will be quite windy. Cold fronts will come in quick succession over the next two weeks meaning that there won't be long periods to enjoy the good snow depths. Fronts will arrive on Monday, Wednesday night and Sunday morning in the next week. The best days for hitting the slopes will be tomorrow (Sunday 11th), Wednesday, Friday and early Saturday. The front arriving next Sunday could be quite substantial, bringing a few days of snow into the next week.
It seems slightly at odds with the predictions in here for the 9th - 15th...
Seems similar to me???
Bom 4 day is looking pretty good for 5-10cm a day from tuesday.
Some more powder is on the way as well, mostly later today about the higher resorts, with much of the day providing skiable conditions, although it will be quite windy.
Looked bluebird pretty much everywhere.
CC or Donza, how much prefrontal do you see tomorrow (Monday) for the front that's approaching below the snow line lowers?
IMO this system won't be much chop below 1600 or 1700m.
Might be ok for Perisher or Threbo up high.
BOM is forecasting snow for the NSW Snowies above 1000 meters from late morning and blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Seems the cat was right and this system is pretty much a rain event....
For today as it's not pretty up there at the moment (prediction/FACT)
Should turn to snow later today, both GFS and ACCESS suggest about lunch time today for VIC and evening for NSW
Then perhaps 5-10cms
EC saying very similar
I agree SF
850 temps all over the place, cold, warm, cold
I predict this time next week looks much better (see other thread)
Not a fan
Needs more cold
Persistent ridging upper High over NT is a major source of our lack of SWlys at present IMO. Grrrr.
There is an interesting 'blob' of cold air with associated cloudband South of Adelaide at present that might produce some snow overnight/tomorrow morning.
ACCESSR looks good for NSW for the next 24ish hours
If you simply believe the charts 20cms for NSW, 10 for VIC
Then another burst Wed night, maybe 10-15cms
I am thinking less, perhaps 10-20cms ALL up by Thursday arvo
Updated: 6:50pm Monday 12/08/2013
Early Tuesday morning: 5 to 10 cm.
Wednesday into Thursday morning: 10 to 20 cm.
yeah definitely better charts today on this, looks reasonable up high, could surprise...
IMO I don't like this much. Off EC it's a 1600m+ system, and will be wet for many of the lower resorts.
base builder for the weekend CC!
Yeah I think it's touch and go below 1600 too
However -6 at 700hpa and -24 at 500hpa by 4pm (when the bulk of the moisture is around) and cooling-on AXS
Bom say falling as snow above 900mtrs from late morning, which I don't understand at all
Overall net gain, say 10-15cm above 1500 and another 5-10 at 1800 IMO
Cold uppers the only saviour with this one.
Again it's going to be in the timing. IMO EC says moisture before the cold, but you never know.
I tend to disagree on this one. Tomorrow may be marginal temps and not great lower down but models indicate lower temps overnight into Thursday early morning with snow continuing to fall well into Wednesday evening. IMO 10-20cm range with snowfalls dropping lower than 1200m at times, mostly falling after lifts close making for good skiing Thursday morning.
No one is saying it won't snow at lower levels, it almost certainly will. You are right, it does get nice and cold by late wed and there is still moisture around then
But, the heavier moisture seems to be late arvo and as CC says, the timing of the cold air will, once again, be the determining factor as to whether this is a minor or medium event from top to bottom
IMO it's a close run thing.
Looking at 18UTC GFS it all looks to happen around 06UTC, which is 4pm today, looks like the moisture is leading the cold, but not by a huge amount.
It appears to be short, sharp front, I'm thinking 10mm rain, 10cm snow following at this stage. Above 1600m that could be all snow (ie 20cm).
Looks great for Perisher, Hotham/Falls for a solid 15-25cms
Looks OK for Buller/Thredbo for a nice 10-15cms up high....
Then we look forward to the weekend FACT
Yeah concur, AXS-R looking really quite tasty for a short sharp burst
Is that for tonight into tomorrow? I've decided to go for a few hours and wonder if chains will be needed to the skitube, seeing I'm in the little town car?
U never "need" chains to get to the tube, they just make you put them on.
We had to put chains on at the end of June to get to the skitube and after getting there I thought they were being a bit over the top,but I guess you don't really know till after the fact.
Yesterday the live RTA link on their website was saying chains at Perderlea but there website only referred to the Perisher Road and for a safer alternative take the skitube,when I drove up around half 8 no chains were needed.
Do they not use salt or a suitable replacement on the alpine roads these days.
Followed a plough up from Wilson's Valley last week and he had a spreader wheel (fertilizer type) spinning on back end of his rig I assumed, I mean to say predicted, was salt .
I thought we used sand in Australia...? Thought salt was a bit too environmentally unfriendly.