Predictions Predictions: August 14th-ish inc 21st-22nd Pineapple

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jul 30, 2015.

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  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feel free to update this thread as it comes closer, but i've been looking at this particular Rossby node that is about to hit South America:
    [​IMG]
    This is a proper solid system, and has been building for a few runs now. I know it's a long way out, and i'm sure the days will change as it gets closer, but I put the 14th as a start point (I think it'll start then if anything, or be later). With the triple header locked in for the 1st-5th system, and another smaller system probably around the 10th, it may soften up the high belt and jet stream enough to really let this one bust through and deliver us some legit snowfall.

    Just one to keep an eye on, the way it crosses Chile and then how it re-forms around Africa are going to be critical as to how it looks when it gets to us, but for the moment it's been the best looking node i've seen all season.
     
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  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No one else touching this one?
     
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    We are still looking too hard at the current system and the Monday front to think about what happens afterward ;)

    It's a really really long way out too, there are no charts to look at yet :D
     
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  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this a competition to see who can "predict" weather the furthest out from an event ?
     
  5. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    SAM is forecast to dive into the -ve's in early August. From my observation it often takes a week or two for that to be reflected in the northward movement of LWTs in our part of world. The timing wound line up quite well for this.
     
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  6. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Bit early for reasons already stated by others to even try to predict anything for this one. Good forward spotting though , never too early to cast an eye to the future. :thumbs::thumbs::thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:
     
  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    I think the 7th - 9th looks promising and what happens will determine what you are looking at.IMO
     
  8. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    I agree this has been forming just nicely and I have been keeping one eye on it, but way too far away to get excited.
    Hard enough getting it right on 4 days out.
     
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  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely. I'm not so bullish about the 7-9th though, but any continuation of what we'll see from tonight/this weekend will only help.
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I stop looking at stuff that close, you end up going crazy hanging your hopes on run-to-run changes in the models, and seeing things that arent there.
     
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  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not at all. I'll admit i'm not the greatest at forecasting in the 0-4 day window in terms of precise snowfall amounts, especially seeing I forecast mainly for Buller and there's a lot of black magic and close your eyes and pray involved with forecasting for Buller, so I tend to look at the way a system evolves from weeks out first to try and picture how it'll be when it hits us. If you watch something sweep half way across the world before it gets to us you get a better appreciation of what it's capable of that just a 1 week chart when it comes into our region.
     
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  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Verm wants naming rights !
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  14. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Maybe a cold ECL
     
  15. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly What a plonker. Ski Pass: Gold

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    OTOH I will be following this thread with great interest.

    Unfortunately I can't provide much in the way of forecasting commentary. But with accommodation locked in for 15th to 23rd of August I'm inclined to predict that the week of the season will fall between these dates.
     
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  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bro pls. Am not that vain.
     
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  17. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Gosh you all speak another language but am enjoying trying to understand it. Sooo anyone have ideas as to what may eventuate from Sunday 9th forward for the week? Be at Perisher there until 17th. Keeping fingers, toes .....
     
  18. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    More like 5th to 7th
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Crossing South America at the moment, looks quite solid. Plenty in this.
     
  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking strong
     
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  21. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Vermillion
    Got an updated chart for these dates bro?
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah mate, not much more to talk about at the moment, it's broken up a little as it crosses land (Sth America) but should re-establish itself again in a couple of days time:
    [​IMG]
    It's the region between 6-8 oclock. 9-10 oclock is the system before it and it looks deep at the moment.
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This model also be related to Spag , or illustrate same data I assume ?
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is not a model, is live actual data.
     
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  26. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Spag plot looks pretty good for 14th Aug. Then it seems to indicate a period of High pressure domination...
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO there's no point looking at anything involving a model for something this far out.
     
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  29. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Have been watching this to Verm I think your date is spot on has some powerful punch in it
     
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  30. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    This might be the last good one this year , probably some minor stuff after it. Them Highs are starting to look like they want to dominate again towards the latter part of August and beyond. Lets hope it gets here and is a cracker worth naming.
     
  31. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    lol forgot this is a prediction thread. Well that's was my prediction I suppose ;)
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the dates might need to stretch out a bit later, because I think there's more than 1 head to this guy.
     
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  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So another very solid front about to hit Sth America, due in our region late in the month. Hmm.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I just think this date range morphs
    into the preceeding
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, that's the front ahead of this one.
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    that goes to 12...13....
    this ...15...ish
    but... it could all just blend IMO
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah at the moment it's hard to keep track. Also there's something nice around the 20th too, it just keeps on rolling at the moment.
     
  38. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Let it roll!! Man, this month could end up an augustathon:cool::D
     
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  39. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us

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    I've been watching this thread with keen interest from the outset, with the week from the 17th pre booked at Buller. I'm predicting that gamble may actually pay off after all! :woohoo:
     
  40. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It would probably happen here if our mountains were twice the height they are...
     
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  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    3.5m in 3 days. Is that even physically possible?
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guess so. Hokkaido?
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Moreso Honshu.
    I've seen vid of 180cm in 12 hours at seki.
    personally ive seen 203cm in 24 hours in 05 in japan.
    way too much snow. Its pointless
     
  47. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    This el nino season - warm and dry.
    We will all be ruined.
    On topic...my predictions for August look like more of the same as for second half of July.
    Snow quality for the bigger resorts as good as it gets.
    What about naming one of these storms NINO
     
  48. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Off topic.
    remarkable thing is in Japan it occurs at 700 metres asl
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    West coast of nz gets snowfalls like these... in the wild parts
     
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