Predictions Predictions: August 14th-ish inc 21st-22nd Pineapple

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Vermillion, Jul 30, 2015.

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  1. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Prayers for a fizz.
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pineapples dont fizz, only beautiful looking snow systems fizz.
     
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  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its going to rain.
    where
    just wait and see
     
  4. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    For the Perisher Mini-Sic water-skiers

    [​IMG]

    Could be better, could be worse.
     
  5. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS saying 5-10 so may still be downgrading ( not fizzing) closer in.
    Astro's animation snipped this morning....

     
    #205 nfip, Aug 18, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2015
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  6. Luke1993

    Luke1993 Hard Yards

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    Hey just a quick question
    Heading up to falls creek for 3 days (Sunday Monday night) this coming weekend
    Will the rain just completely **** the snow on the mountain? New to boarding so just worried it gets rid of all the snow and they will close alot of runs
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    no, you'll be fine.
     
  8. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm liking this set up IMO
     
  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you like rain?
     
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  10. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Fruit Tingles?
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They turn into black jelly beans.
     
  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are you planting?
     
  13. sixty_eight

    sixty_eight One of Us

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    Corn, of course.
     
  14. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty bad tho we're all hoping it doesn't rain when there's so many folk reliant on the land praying for some.
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    if you go off AXS this doesn't look that bad really at all.
     
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  16. sixty_eight

    sixty_eight One of Us

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    Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and take whatever comes in between.
     
  17. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree, not as moisture in it as other models include the chance of some ok snow on the back-end Sunday night into Monday.
     
  18. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    I thought the same, but I am optimistic cause I'm at Perisher next week. It still has time to improve. Not so much rain in it now, the cold air just has to get to the alps 24 hours earlier. Hopecasting at best.
     
  19. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This saying same D ?



    [​IMG]
     
  20. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

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    Supposed to be doing two demo days. Saturday at falls and Sunday at Hotham.

    Looks like the weather will screw this up. Rain and lots of it. I wish I could be so optimistic Donza.
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Small wandering cold pool I think. Pinning your hopes on one of those is fraught with danger...
     
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  22. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes I thought so , with Westerly fetch tho.
    Not really pinning my hopes on this one at all (just fearfull of potential damage to the base as we all are.
    Have pushed my trip back to arrive Sunday for AST-1 Monday Tuesday.
    Maybe should have been a question in bbq.
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looks cold enough for snow Sunday night (moreso into Monday)easy.
    Though this system is so Dynamic.
    Good luck even predicting where it will rain.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO latest run of EC has changed a bit.
    1. Saturday doesn't look nearly as bad as before - Friday night and early Saturday am still looks damp, but not disastrously.
    2. But Sunday afternoon looks damper than before, especially in the south
    3. Moisture will hang around through Monday, but not much chop below 1800m
    Expect it to change in the next run.
     
  25. saintberry

    saintberry Hard Yards

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    Any info on impact for southern lakes region of NZ? I figure there will be more accurate predictions here. Yr.no saying rain Tues/Wed below 1600m, snow above. Shame that the resorts over there are low.
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everything at Remarkables and Cardrona, and half of Treble Cone is above1600m.
     
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  27. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Cardrona actually when in full swing runs lower than 1670m (elevation at the base building I think), the real base is 1260m now with Valley View quad running.
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    okay so half of it is about 1600m. still, hardly low.
     
  29. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Remarks and Cardrona are your best bets for sure when you want to stay high. Cardrona just becomes so much better when snow is good down to the base of valley view. IMO
     
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  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM forecast for Perisher Pineapple

    Friday 21 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 7
    Shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 55 km/h before turning northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the evening.

    Saturday 22 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 3
    Max 8
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

    Sunday 23 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 8
    Showers or snow easing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers or snow. Light winds.
     
  31. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Addicted

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    I predict that Ohau is definitely worth a drive from my experience there, best hot chocs, about 15 cars in the car park including the staff. Minimal lifts for max terrain - a pretty fun drive up the mountain too like Treble cone with creek crossings
     
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  32. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    How are the winds looking? Tempted to head down if it's not looking too damp Sat and Sun morning as I finally have a leave pass this weekend, but 12 hours in the car for just Centre Valley T's probably outweighs my desperation to strap the planks on.
     
  33. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think that answers my question above, thanks. Not looking too windy at all.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Moderate to fresh Northerlies late Friday and heading into Saturday, and easing later Saturday morning.
    Not to bad really.
    Rain-wise, I'd be holding off until later in the week to know how much and where.
    IMO
     
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  35. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The base is as solid as a concrete floor. I think the resorts should pull through this relatively unscathed. Perisher looks to be missing almost all of it
     
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  36. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    this ^^^^
    I wouldnt be to worried about the rain. Its not going to be a wash away September/Otober type event.
    Plus there will be a bit of white stuff on the back end followed by some cold nights.
     
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  37. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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  38. sara777

    sara777 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hoping my extended weekend will turn up good...
     
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  39. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    #239 Vandans, Aug 18, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 18, 2015
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah that was my feeling yesterday.
    Hasn't changed .
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3 lows, 3 fronts, at least 2 troughs lol
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    pin the tail on the weather donkey.
     
  45. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Looks like the charts you see in the northern hemisphere!! Complex in the extreme
     
  46. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears getting geared up with helmets for possible pineapples coming out of sky...

    not sure how they will cope with chainsawing if its spitting pineapples...
    CC describing event as "complex" is causing Bears some trepidation.:thumbs:

    any idea of rainfall totals this far out? ...is this big like couple inches???over a few days....

    is this the antithesis of the polar vortex....de pineapple vortex(complex)
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    could be anywhere from 10mm to 70mm depending upon the location.
    At this stage it's tracking further north, rather than south, but the complexity of the system makes it hard to say exactly where...
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  49. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC was suggesting 5-10cm at the end of it on Tuesday, but given how dynamic this system is, I'm not counting on it as of yet.
    Both EC & GFS have been showing this weak system for a couple of days. (25th)
     
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