Predictions Predictions: August 14th-ish inc 21st-22nd Pineapple

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jul 30, 2015.

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  1. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Here is hoping there is something in it. All over the shop ATM.
    Damn, my moods swing wildly depending on the charts!!
     
  2. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Grrr - big weekend for me (not counting Mini Sic...)

    Family ski day on Friday - the whole family 3 generations once a year event! Looks like we will get a good morning though?

    Saturday not sure if i want to get out of bed. But its mine and YK anniversary and since we meet skiing... we wanted to ski on our anniversary!

    Sunday ticket already paid for... so will do a few turns.
     
    #252 Ozgirl, Aug 18, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2015
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  3. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where is this from?
     
  4. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no
     
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  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    It looks nothing like that now
    isn't even showing rain to be honest
    hence
    its , um....undecided
     
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  6. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah i figure as much which is why i wanted to know where it was from so i can get an update!

    i noticed the rain seemed to have eased on Mountainwatches models in the latest runs.
     
  8. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Saturday looks better, but Sunday could be problematic in the north IMO
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS at complete odds with that
    AXS will be different as well.
    expect the worst
    and be happy with the outcome
     
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  11. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Liking updated models
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blokes thread ?
     
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  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS for Friday through till Tuesday. These are my current opinions for current charts.

    Friday: Get out early before the rain hits. Hits around lunch continues all night.

    Saturday: Clearing in the morning, before rain returns late afternoon.

    Sunday: NSW. Go to church. Only God can help you.

    Monday: Still too warm. Wet snow flurries.

    Tuesday: Snow flurries.

    So ............ Looks better. But tomorrow is another day.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Why is this system being called a pineapple?
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No idea
    Its no where near a pineapple.
    wrong direction and wrong amount of moisture for IMO
     
  16. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    That's what I thought
     
  17. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    After the Pineapple Express, which is a wet but warm system originating near Hawaii that dumps rain on the Sierras in the USA.
     
  18. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Initial models had a tropical moisture feed.
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I call a pineapple when It comes via Queensland via a deep low off NE NSW.
     
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  20. bdenny4

    bdenny4 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What's it gonna do to Buller Friday?
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not alot IMO
     
  22. bdenny4

    bdenny4 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So no rain?
     
  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Won't hit Buller till late afternoon. So should be good.

    Get out early.
     
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  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Too much sensationalism in this thread. Too much "expert" ..
     
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  25. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Not a lot rain but is going to be warm and humid.
     
  26. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    So does a pineapple have more or less moisture than this system?
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Bro pls.
    I've posted three times....
     
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  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Oh shitloads more
    I've seen 100mm plus in 24 hours at perisher from proper moist systems...at plus 5 degrees
    rivers running down the runs.
    Hence.
    This is not that.
     
  29. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    So maybe a pineapple fritter (short burst of heat & moisture)................my fav as a kid, more sugar please!!!!!!!!
     
    #279 Zimboo, Aug 18, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2015
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  30. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    Thanks

    I saw something similar in Hakuba once (not sure if there's Japanese equivalent). Not pretty
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like to call these western wet warm lows of winter - Kalgoorlie dogs. Usually they breed there in the lower south of WA - where they can sit for a couple of days - getting warmer - all the while sucking in moisture from far and wide before moving east to piss all over the south east - they seem to come in August every now and then.

    This is a bit further south - so hard to tell if its all warm - and ready to piss down as a Drunken Barry returns for one final laugh at the mutant season of 2015....

    Hopefully it gets a cold blast at the last minute and ends up delivering wet snow above 1750 metres - before getting a nice layer of fresh fluffy stuff on top. It would cement in place a solid September as a final act of goodwill - before the evil child burns down all the gum trees this xmas.
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  34. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    not looking so wet for us now over the weekend. friday will be wet , maybe even snow from late saturday for ben .. i cant see anything for the mainland other the Ra%n well into next week if those models are correct except way up high where there could be some wet snow
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest Perisher weekend forecasts

    BoM

    Friday 21 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 7
    Rain. Becoming very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h.

    Saturday 22 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 8
    Rain easing. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h during the day then turning westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.

    Sunday 23 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 7
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

    Yr No

    [​IMG]

    Saturday looks awful at this stage, IMO.

    @IAB
     
    #285 DidSurfNowSki, Aug 19, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2015
  36. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weekend after (28th) looks worse than this one on AccessG IMO. Probably too far out to worry about ATM
     
  37. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks okay on GFS. Go figure.
     
  38. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, models undecided ATM
     
  39. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    looks grim for freezing levels
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Respectfully some of us are simply trying to listen and learn.
    Piecing the models together to form our own judgements , then seeing how it evolves is part of the fun for mine.
    Yes it is important to not get too carried away with each run , but when you're hoping for a foot of dryness not 30mm of liquid it can be a little consuming.
    This is a ski forum not a WZ forum.
    I know I've put up a few posts that where less than on the money , so be it.

    AXS no joy at all this morning IMO, lets hope it lands where it's needed not where we don't want it.
     
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  41. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for this. Big difference between the BOM and the Yr No forecasts, especially re: the wind? BOM is predicting almost gale force winds early while Yr No has "gentle breeze" !!

    A bit of dampness I can handle, strong winds are a different story. Any idea which forecast is right?
     
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont understand why people put yr no information in the 'forecast/predictions' thread.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Why not ?
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Because it's not a forecast, or a prediction. It's a joke.
     
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  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr No is based off EC is it not?

    EC hasn't been too bad this season, IMO
     
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  46. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

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    Looking like the weekend will be warm and wet. maybe not as wet as we first thought but overall not a pleasant weekend. Damn. Freezing level too high. Looks like there may be some pockets of cold air here and there but not consistent enough.
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's precisely driven off the EC data, so I'm not sure why there's a problem with it.
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Monday, 25th not looking crash hot either on EC

    [​IMG]

    Potentially a tad cooler than the weekend, but still likely to be ugly below 1800m
    [​IMG]
    Perhaps we'll get lucky and be ok down to 1600m.

    IMO
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  50. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    So to make the best of a bad situation would you be running with Friday-Monday or Saturday - Tuesday? Thinking the first one after looking at this mornings maps but would love some confirmation.
    Cheers
     
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