Predictions Predictions: August 14th-ish inc 21st-22nd Pineapple

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jul 30, 2015.

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  1. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Come on Huey, turn it on for the kids......................................oh and the parents too. Good luck.
     
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  2. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Saturday 22 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 3
    Max 8
    Shower or two. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the early morning. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Sunday 23 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 7
    Rain at times.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Medium (60%) chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning.

    Monday 24 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Light winds.

    Tuesday 25 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 3
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

    Wednesday 26 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Snow showers increasing.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely later in the day. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h.

    Thursday 27 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 6
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Light winds.
     
  3. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Lots of Precip!!!:deadhorse:
     
  4. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    And all falling as snow from Monday on if you believe that forecast. Certainly a very fine line form MOnday onwards as to snow or rain. No joy for lower areas that's for sure but still a chance elevated regions can break even or even come out ahead of the came.

    Monday I think is the key. To my eye the models show the cold air inching slightly further north at the moment for Monday.

    Extremely hard week to get a measure on the final result!!
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Nothing good comes from the sou east .
    However , Perisher will be ok.
     
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  6. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Seems to be warming up each run for next week. Hope fading fast
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No i disagree
     
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  8. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am specifically looking at Buller. Next weekend could be a shocker. Happy to be wrong of course
     
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  9. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well on a positive note, there doesn't seem to be any stream rises and haven't had any for a month and a bit. Looking at the Vic river gauges http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60154.html all major alpine rivers are still low which means up top is still frozen solid.
    Flood warnings for next week in the NE (Vic) IMO
     
  10. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    Looks like another good upgrade from BOM for perisher and backcountry for next week. They now calling 15-49 mm mon-thu, and have further lowered temps. Fingers crossed.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Look at the bright side, looks like buller will miss out on the rain over the weekend and monday.
    All going north.
     
  12. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, maybe things can change for next weekend (when I arrive), still a way to go.
     
  13. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    So, on Aug 5 the SC depth was 122. On Aug 6, 1992 it was 78. By Sept 17, 1992 it was 316!
    We are heading into a very dynamic late Aug weather period where there is lots of moisture & maybe cold enough for good snowfall above 1800m.
    I remember 92 well, not all that cold in the lead up to late aug & then bang, rivers in NE flooded like crazy and the whole of the causeway between Albury & Wodonga flooded like an inland sea until late Oct.
    Do any of the experts on here see a chance of anything similar coming off this year?
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    If I was to offer a precedent for a year.... its 1998
     
  15. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Grasshopper and mountainwatch automatic computer models are two very different things!
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ain't that the truth.
     
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  17. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    Yes, 98 and this year are very similar all the way through till now at all levels of measurement. Was 98 an el nino year?
     
  18. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    And in fairness to the grasshopper, he often says this in his reports, and says to disregard the automated predictions in some circumstances.
     
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  19. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Very similar to 1992 to date.. IMO
    On topic, I predict it won't continue that way. next week a bit of a set back but may still get a good fall (25cm) before season is done
     
  20. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    I noted today comment that the two super typhoons are sucking weather north toward them at sea level, not sure if its true or not, could be why low is tracking over land
     
  21. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM looking a bit more optimistic for snow (NSW) Monday-Tuesday. Progged temps have come down, I didn't much like possible snow at 4C.
     
  22. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not looking as diastrous for next weekend either IMO
     
  23. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    In my part of the world - Hobart, each BOM run is slightly better than the last, predicted temps of 11, 12, 13 for Sun/Mon/Tues, five days ago they were all around 15-16. Snow to 700m on Mon, rather than about 1200m
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This is looking better every run

    The wandering cool pool is confusing the models.

    I would say that the wondering cool pool is not focused and broader and wider as opposed to being elongated north south.

    I think its gonna be big big or okay but not disastrous. Though snow below 1700 m will definitely cop a hit but its getting on to spring so that won't matter.

    Net gain IMO above 17000
     
  25. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tis certainly Tassie's year this year.
     
  26. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tassie on the map?
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    All images / models above based on 4PM Wednesday next week.

    Looks Close but definitely looking better every run
     
  29. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Yr, no and BOM positively bullish from Monday to Thursday for Mt Perisher. I hope it comes off, if it does the hope casters have a win, another possible 40 cents for Spencers creek? I had better get my flat light lens packed.
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This week was really good and no one even bothered to call it.

    Aussie Powder stashes were still on demand on Thursday if you knew were to look.

    I was up Tuesday / Wednesday and that was definitely the best conditions of the year for Back country with stable atmosphere after a generous clipper front on Monday.
     
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  31. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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  32. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Bom still going for snow to 1600 mon wed and lower and lots of precip NSW Looks like rain to me hope I am wrong
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #snowinstrangespotspartthree
     
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  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So Donza meant to ask is this two different subject / comments ?
    Perisher dodges the wetness in such systems ?
    ECL types does well IMO...
     
  35. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Perisher and Thredbo high might get a net gain
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just has the Altitude.
     
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  37. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nervously reading this thread ahead of my main range trip starting Monday next week. Looking like a massive case of risk/reward. Or I could be in the tent a lot, I packed my Kindle!
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think moonscape range would be a better description.
     
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  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was thinking about this as it has evolved.
     
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  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    tbh it could be quite dangerous up there.
    ECL's into the Alpine have a way of bringing alot of weather ...and zero vis.
     
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  42. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah (OT I know) but we need to have the 'plan B' talk this weekend.
     
  43. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    At least winds not forecast to be too strong at this stage
     
  44. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Most of NSW and Eastern Victoria will receive substantial rain, which is great for our farmers. Alpine areas significant falls of wet snow, best above about 1750m.IMO
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    SE winds are never forecast to be strong... however if a low bombs , yeah it can get a bit windy.
     
  46. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    Interesting. Id always associated ecl snow events as having lighter winds. Case in point the one earlier this year (was it snownami?). Not always the case? Anyhow bom predict up to 45km thredbo top station so thats not too bad
     
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  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    worst wind I've ever seen in the mountains was a sou easter ...I think cause it comes from a strange direction it affects more?
    whereas the NWer is lee side for alot of the mountains.
     
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  48. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    SE blows into the majority of lifts in NSW I think. Westerlies and NW blow over the top. Not much difference BC, but effects the resorts more.
     
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  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep
    My take also is a more of a funnelling compression effect along the valleys.
     
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  50. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    It's looking more like a mango every minute
     
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