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Predictions: July 10th - 16th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Jun 24, 2012.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I've seen this building in the LWT for a few days. Probably a little too early to start a thread on it, but I thought i'd put it out there...
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 10th - 16th (Long Range)

    Looks like it could come through a couple of days later now. Still ages away!
     
  3. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 10th - 16th (Long Range)

    GFS showing something significant around 12th-14th on 12z (particularly +264), but it's +264 [​IMG]
     
    #3 PowWow, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Starting to firm up on EC too

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not that this is weather related...well it is kinda...
    I'm down there for 9 days from this weekend coming...and well every trip i've done with my wife longer than three days in the past 10 years has seen legit pow. She is my good luck charm

    AXS. has gone all in
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS (3am)

    [​IMG]
     
    #6 Claude Cat, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXS is awesome this morning ey.
     
  8. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    I'm down there this time too.
    AXS does look very good.
    Though ra*n could be an issue...
     
    #8 badabing, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  9. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    AXS looks a lot like May 27, 2000. A bit worried about pre-frontal R#@* though IMO.
     
  10. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Looking at all the models there is no doubt this will be wet enough... just a question of cold. My +264 prediction is 25cm-75cm between Thursday 12th and Sunday 15th depending on when the cold air arrives.
     
  11. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    so donza, if someone else takes your missus to the snow for more than three days wlll it be good for snowfalls?

    I think this needs thorough investigation.....
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The foretasted rain in the prefrontal will be welcomed.

    It will stitch all the last few dumps together.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And EC

    [​IMG]

    IMO EC has a lot more moisture, but a lot more marginal temperatures.
     
    #13 Claude Cat, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    This is a long way out, but there is already some agreement. I'm expecting it to change, but what I can see is a massive amount of prefrontal rain, but a very cold outbreak afterwards. Like the look of those deep southerlies [​IMG]
     
    #14 ice_man, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  15. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Rain looks to be an issue [​IMG]
     
    #15 badabing, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  16. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    agreed ice imo prefrontal rain could be of concern but its what follows is very interesting. if it holds a similar pattern to what it currently showing ill have snow at my front door step in the strezlekis! [​IMG] imo
     
    #16 doogasnow, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #17 7wombathead, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Latest EC run looking good, although a long way out......

    [​IMG]
     
    #18 FourSquare04, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks very ugly to me this morning, but i'm not giving up on it just yet. LWT looks great for this period, something is going to happen.
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Concur
    LWT perfect
    spag run looks great
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
    [​IMG]
     
    #21 mick chopps, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah man just a little worried about the pre-frontal but at +200 hrs it's hard to believe anythings set in concrete. Look to me it's pretty simple, LWT which changes less than MSLP charts is steady and saying something will happen. All the models are saying something will happen, and post-front it will be really cold. That's enough for me to say keep an eye on this.

    If you want a prediction this morning, then looking at moisture totals only (500/850hpa is useless for anything more than a guide this far out) we're looking at 100mm total for this front. Some might be snow, some rain, could be all snow (unlikely) or all rain.
     
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Given that it's mid July and in the lead up to this event it looks set to be pretty cold, I wouldn't be too concerned about pre-frontal Verm...this one looking real promising however it's still a long way out, we shall see how it goes over the course of this week
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For some reason the 3am run hasn't come through, that's the 3pm run from yesterday.
    The rainfall charts have updated
    [​IMG]

    Lots of moisture, but temps are marginal as Verm rightly points out.
    IMO plenty of potential, and given that systems have been generally colder than expected this year, I have good feelings about this one.
     
    #24 Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  25. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #25 skiflat, Jul 3, 2012
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  26. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    It does look wet & warmer in NSW for the prefrontal.. It will be colder down south.. Definatley has potential , the next couple of days will be clearer!
     
  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    pretty
     
    #27 Majikthise, Jul 3, 2012
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  28. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

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    Anything for NZ in this time frame? Specifically southern lakes?
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #29 mick chopps, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    At over a week to go, you can't really get into specifics... but.

    A strong 1034hPa High is currently moving into SE Aus now.
    It will provide clear weather for the next week, before it moves off into the Tasman (to make room for this system).

    When that happens it will suck down, strong and warm NW'ly winds.

    So, Pre-frontal will be inevitable.

    But, I like this system a lot...look how far WEST the trailing high is progged to be! This will provide a pretty vast area of relatively low pressure which could host a bombing low.


    192 hours and counting...
     
    #30 Stratus, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9am GFS

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    It's suggesting fairly warm 850 hPa temps until the 12th, IMO
     
    #31 Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    So is EC
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #32 badabing, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO starting to firm up on EC.

    Looking wet on 11th

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps a little more on the 12th
    [​IMG]

    Before it cools down for snow

    [​IMG]


    GFS on the other hand has gone all weird on the 3pm run so I'm inclined to disregard it.

    [​IMG]
     
    #33 Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jayzuz to me the 11th is look terrible at the moment. Lots of rain.

    As to how much snow after...who knows? Weather will be happening, but at this point im not liking the rain.

    Upper levels look warm and surface temps look warm imo
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    yeah it not looking that good at the moment.

    A bit of faith required to get through the modelling Schlitz.

    Last week and half has been so good (Over 1m) its hard to believe the winter can fall apart.

    Oh well see what happens
     
  36. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of time for things to come into line.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fat slab of rain tonight, at this stage there's more rain/damage than snow.
     
  38. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Yeah NAH saying lots of moisture but lots of warm temps.
     
    #38 badabing, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  39. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm, IMO that moisture is all NW feed related rather than "prefrontal".
    You always live in hope that the cold will catch up with the moisture and things will be okay, but experience tells otherwise
    We should be hoping for a moisture downgrade rather than a temperature "upgrade' to minimise damage
    Hard to say what will happen once the cold air arrives on the 12th..but any shift in moisture timing will be important
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    LWT and Spag is too strong for this to be a rain event IMO
    models are struggling with a complex trough upper low that starts to cook near WA friday.
     
  41. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO the use of the term "prefrontal" is greatly over used in this forum.

    What Donza said
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well GFS suggests plenty of moisture.

    [​IMG]
     
    #42 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
     
    #43 Donza, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  44. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is 5 to 9 days out Claude so you are correct that "GFS suggests".
     
    #44 dawooduck, Jul 4, 2012
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  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO that's weaker and less defined compared to yesterday.
     
    #45 Vermillion, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  46. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree this is the key..my comment really is about past experience and these feeds being warm.
    Disclaimer:Commentary is only valid for 24 hrs and was based on my 3 model breakfast review
     
    #46 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep I thought the same thing when I looked at it this morning Verm.
     
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You can see the upper level system here. South of WA
    [​IMG]
     
    #48 Donza, Jul 4, 2012
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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #49 7wombathead, Jul 4, 2012
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  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    #50 Stratus, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013