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Predictions: July 10th - 16th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Jun 24, 2012.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    What else are you gonna look at. Work. Hee.

    The foretasted GFS shown, suggest that current patterns of storm activity in our part of the southern ocean are still active.

    Thats all i need to know, that there is a potentiality for an event.
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    My point was simply, the model, GFS (that you posted), at 200hrs out, let alone 300hrs out, really isn't useful at such a long range.
     
    #52 Stratus, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  3. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    weatherzone is firming up on a solid fall of snow for this time with a SW feed. (imho)
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Which model?
     
    #54 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks warm and ridiculously wet on Access-G. IMO
     
  6. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The Blog one

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/

    But yes, they have gone from <2cm, to 2-5 to 5-10cm
     
    #56 skiflat, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    AXS-R lining up better
    IMO
     
    #57 Donza, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  8. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Looking at a big fat cold injection right up the funicular according to that WZ information.
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Decent upgrade on 3pm GFS
    looks very tidy

    ebbs and flows now I think until 72 hours.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looks very wet on the 10th IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    But the whole progression doesn't look right to me from the 8th on GFS so I think this will switch around a fair bit.
     
    #60 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    That freezing level chart is at odds with the thickness chart and 850 chart on WX ...
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    850hPa Temps
    [​IMG]
    & Thicknesses
    [​IMG]

    IMO moisture is there before it cools down but I can see where you're coming from.
     
    #62 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This is evolving...
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC this afternoon still looks wet too, IMO

    [​IMG]

    But does look better from the 12th

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And GFS does too
    [​IMG]

    Mind you models are vastly divergent right at the moment.
     
    #64 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  15. slipnslide

    slipnslide Hard Yards

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    Same with me - 9 days as of Friday for school hols with my boy.

    I'd like to put in a request with your good luck charm if I could - same as the second week of July last year will do just nicely. [​IMG]
     
    #65 slipnslide, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  16. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see blizzard on Tues ... followed by white goodness and shrubbery misting below 1635m
     
  17. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    yr.no saying lower temps...

    And Friday The 13th temps looking good. Hopefully moisture then.

    [​IMG]
     
    #67 badabing, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  18. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    This system to me is looking like September 2010 all over again. Really ugly, massive amounts of tropical moisture, heavy rain, you name it. It's the type of system that may deliver 10 to 20 cm of snow after 50+mm of rain.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Kind of looking like it at the moment. Still some divergence in the models so there's some hope.

    Although it's not that simple. 10th is looking cooler so it could be a weird system where it snows/rains/snows.
    I suspect above 1800m could do quite well out of this.
     
  20. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    So there will be good skiing on the roof of Zirky's!
     
    #70 themaninblack, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  21. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    GFS looks better for being colder with less #ain in alpine areas on friday the 13th .. Definately better then access which looks very wet on this date.. a couple nore days and things will be clearer !
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This. LWT has flattened out a bit this morning but still peaky enough to suggest there's hope.
     
    #72 Vermillion, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  23. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Given your comments and your Expert status I will keep the hope alive. (this system looks pretty awful)
     
    #73 themaninblack, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not awful until Donza calls 2 feet.
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Nice bait bro...btw when are you going skiing?

    Hey I reckon this has potential written all over it.
    For NSW
    Its the season of snowing. The continent is silly cold this year. Alice springs was the coldest in 10 years the other day.
     
    #75 Donza, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Aug 3. Might do a month up there.

    I never said it was dead I just said it had potential and we shouldnt kill it off.
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
    Potential and fluid.
     
    #77 Donza, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Something brewing on the spag for the 17th also IMO.
     
  29. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Down to 7 in Brisbane last night and 13 in Cairns. Minus 3.5 in Alice this morning. That is cold.
     
    #79 themaninblack, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  30. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    7 in brissie is not unusual. pretty common for july.
     
  31. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    Brissy haven't had 3 consecutive nights below 7 in July since 2007, and 2002 before that
     
  32. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possibly. But temps of 7 are certainly not unusual. And things are about to warm up here again to around 10/11.
     
  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    This thread needs MOAR predictions and less Banter

    IMO
     
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    weird that WZ charts havent updated.
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Neither are their sat pics
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO still a lot of volatility in the models for this period, I'd be hesitant about making a call to be honest.
    Latest EC runs would have 20cm of snow above 1600-1800m for the 10th & 11th, before a potentially colder and stronger system on the 14th.
    At least for areas below 1800m it wouldn't be a washout IMO.
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'm just watching the spag plot...
     
  38. DaveT

    DaveT Hard Yards

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    Would it be fair to say it is improving with each run?
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    In very general terms..

    I think the models this season have overstated temps..
     
    #89 Donza, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  40. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    spag plot doesn't push deep into the nsw ranges from that last pic Donz... (imho)
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    Bringing back the old school
     
    #91 Donza, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I cant see Honshu on that map.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    It shows divergence between the 3am and 3pm runs..00z and 12z.
    for SE Australia. yellow and grey lines...
    It also shows agreement for a developing system a bit later on..closer runs.
     
    #93 Donza, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Look hard enough bro and you can see two feet
     
    #94 Donza, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah man all I can see is 7-0.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic.
     
  47. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not gettting very excited about this system. At +168 hours ACCESS and the EC are fairly identical, and both suggest that the cold air will be too far south. If the trough that appears at about +200 hours on the latest ACCESS run turns into reality it looks like major rain event to me.
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #98 7wombathead, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  49. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    I find it difficult to see a large rain event out of this. Temps are marginal, but I think the moisture levels will drop back and see up to approx 5mm rain and about the same in snow...maybe 10mm snow...um, 10cm.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    3.pm GFS colder for NSW Tuesday and Friday
    Friday night would be a snow level of 900 for vicco 1000 for NSW