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Predictions: July 10th - 16th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Jun 24, 2012.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    If I had to call it off the charts now, 40mm rain followed by 30cm snow for Falls / Hotham IMO.

    But as had been mentioned, that is just far too much divergence between models, so i'ts not really worth even making a call at this early stage.

    Honestly, all it will take is for the trailing high to stall under WA and we could have much more snow.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Concur, to hard to make an accurate call right now, IMO
    Apart from "something will happen" [​IMG]
     
    #102 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #103 skiflat, Jul 5, 2012
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  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO
    looks better tonight than it did last night

     
  5. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #105 skiflat, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #106 Claude Cat, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  7. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    - deleted
     
  8. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #108 skiflat, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking better this afternoon on EC.
    Rain on the 10th, but snow 11-14th
    At this stage, purely on EC I'd be saying 10mm followed by 30cm
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looks nice, although perhaps a little more pre-frontal and a little more snow after. But then again we know GFS always goes for MOAR
    IMO
     
  11. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Also colder temps on EC looking nicer.
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Sea temps off the east coast are much colder then usual atm, so IMO, this reduces the chance of any type of Tasman low developing.

    [​IMG]

    So I'm not buying GFS too much.
     
    #112 Stratus, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You sure about ssts? Its warm here on the south coast. Hence why its raining here.right now. Gfs always progs a ecl. I don't believe it either. Though i think something will happen.
     
  14. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    A snow level of 1750 for example is basically a disaster for Vic resorts, whereas that still leaves almost 300 meters of vertical at Perisher and Thredbo that will get snow.
     
    #114 absentskier, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  15. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    #115 Stratus, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah every one seems to forecast based on there area of interest and not the whole alps.

    Its definitely colder in the water off merimbula this year than last august. Its about 14 now and was 19 last august. IMO ECL will deliver this year more than last.
     
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Colder water will decrease the chances of an ECL developing.
     
    #117 Stratus, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  18. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    I'm liking where the model are going with this, this morning. Looks like a lot of the prefrontal will fall west of the mountains (not looking as good for westerly resorts) with the models (GFS particularly) indicating at heavy falls of snow above about 1600-1700m. Overall, this looks like a system for perisher, although not looking so good for lower/west resorts.
     
  19. dmzm

    dmzm Hard Yards

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    Jane's weather seems very bullish on this system, predicting snow even for the first front, and even in Vic!

    http://www.janesweather.com/index.php/alpine

    If it turned out could be epic but I'm doubtful IMO. Much more likely for the 13th-14th.
     
    #119 dmzm, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    She says snow "only up high". nothing but rain below 1650-1700m so most of Vic will miss out. In her opinion.
     
  21. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    imo this isnt looking to good at all goin off gfs ? looks mostly rain to me. at least its still a fair way out so plenty of time to swing back to more positive event imo
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well there is a lot of moisture predicted by GFS for the period

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    But freeze levels are high

    [​IMG]

    Uppers

    [​IMG]

    By the 11th it's better

    [​IMG]

    Freeze levels down to 1600m, but uppers suggest better than that

    [​IMG]

    But the follow-up really dries up on GFS until the 15th.

    [​IMG]

    So in at least the Victorian resorts, I'd be going with more rain than snow on the GFS outlook IMO

    Looking at EC it's similar. 20mm rain, followed by 10cm snow.
    Then snow redeveloping on the 14th, perhaps 10cm there at this stage.
     
    #122 Claude Cat, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS 12Z run seems to predict rain/snow from the Monday with a nice follow-up cold front on the Wednesday.

    EC has higher pressure on the Monday system with the follow-up front missing Victoria and The Alps.

    JMA and UKMO tend to agree with EC.

    I'd be surprised if this afternoon's ACCESS run shows the same follow-up cold front.
     
  24. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    GFS suggesting the 14th to 19th looking very good at this stage.

    I am really only seeing rain for the first day or so
     
  25. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    all i'll add to the conversation is that I'm admiring anyone who can make head or tail out of this..... this is one seriously mixed up set of developing models... my gut says a small net increase of snow but whether its r*** > snow or snow> r***> snow I've no confidence at all.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh it's a tough one. One thing that hasn't really changed is that the 10th & early on the 11th will be pretty wet, at least below 1800m IMO
    That really hasn't changed too much. The follow-up has been all over the place with the models.
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Cutoffs, wandering cold pools..its all very dynamic
    spag plot still looks interested. Its not flat thats for sure for Tuesday night
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #128 Donza, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My 3 model breakfast was more digestible today
    I think there's generally been a downgrade of moisture and an upgrade of cold from the 10th
    IMO this is good.
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXS - R shows a trough line in the bight. This I have never seen before.

    All the models look unrealistic this morning IMO (without being an optimist).

     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS has backed off moisture levels, more in line with what EC has been saying, IMO

    Perhaps not a bad thing, because it's looking decidedly tropical.

    [​IMG]

    Just waiting for uppers information to come through.
     
    #131 Claude Cat, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. canestocks

    canestocks Hard Yards

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    "Snowfall will then lower to about 1400 metres on Wednesday 11th as a cold air ass moves over the Alps."

    A scary prediction IMO!! Shall report next week.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It looks to me that mid Wednesday is when it gets cool enough to actually snow at sub 1800, IMO trouble is the moisture has left the building in most part.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #133 Claude Cat, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC this afternoon is steady with the 20mm / 10cm outlook for the 10th & 11th, IMO. But the follow-up on the 14th & 15th has gone.
     
  35. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #135 skiflat, Jul 6, 2012
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  36. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Charts just do not look right for this period
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Spag plot doesn't match...hmm
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    IMO this event is way still on

    I am mean look at that Satellite http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00135.201207060730.jpg

    you can see that there is plenty of cold air around at the moment. I can't see any induction of warm air in to the snowies taht would mean drenching rain. So I am thinking this could be as good as the last system, which was pretty fricken good if only a bit windy. I mean on Sunday there were 50cm stashes everywhere.
     
    #138 7wombathead, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  39. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I concour with the seven headed wombat
     
  40. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is still to much divergence across the models currently to know whats really going to happen, plus the system is still 4-5 days away.
    There is some very cold air hanging over southern aus ATM so imo it will react with the moisture and lower the current projected freeze levels.
    Lets hope so anyway.
    (im at falls next weekend so i have everything crossed for a few freshies)
     
  41. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS seems to have come back in line with EC. The big follow-up front seems to have vanished.

    Still not much to cheer from a Victorian point of view. Temps just look too high IMO.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    So much divergence...expect to see Miranda kerr tomorrow
     
  43. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    fact?
     
    #143 Mils, Jul 6, 2012
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  44. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Thredbo Wed 11th, BoM on this mornings update has -2 to 0 but showers of rain not snow. Yesterdays WZ for 11th has snow to 1400m. I know which one we'd like , but which one will we get?... W
     
  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Uppers too warm for snow?
     
    #145 FourSquare04, Jul 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    With all the cold air in southern aus, those uppers are to high imo.
    Maybe it is just me and my very limited knowledge of reading maps, but the models just still seam very un-natural for tuesday-wednesday.
    The flow of the charts just doesnt look right imo.
     
    #146 Chowder11, Jul 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  47. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #147 skiflat, Jul 7, 2012
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  48. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Potential for NSW/Hotham/Falls here IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #148 skiflat, Jul 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    1600m+, probably higher, IMO
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking better on the spag IMO