IMO not great initially on GFS Freeze levels are 2000m+, thickness suggest it may snow a little lower, but hard to see this is anything but bad for 1800m and lower. Chance of snow-showers Thursday & Friday when it cools down - perhaps 10cm? The weather chaser has this: Mon 09/07/2012 2mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1850m Fresh to Strong, NW/N Tue 10/07/2012 40mm rain, 1cm Snow Min -1, Max 3 1750m Gale to Strong to Storm to Strong, N/S/NW Wed 11/07/2012 9cm Snow Min -1, Max 0 1550m Strong to Moderate, NW/W Thu 12/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -4, Max -1 1200m Moderate to Light, NW/W/SW/S Fri 13/07/2012 8cm Snow Min -5, Max -3 900m Moderate to Light to Strong, S EC is broadly similar, IMO
So what do think? Net gain for Perisher and upper slopes of Thredbo? Neutral for Hotham/Falls? Net loss for Buller and the lower resorts?
I reckon there wil be an increase above around 1800m, so I think Specer's Creek depth will go up IMO (but not much). Any lower than that the snow level will either have a neutral or only slight change in depth IMO
YR.NO still going for lots of snow for Buller. I can't see it. IMO it will be R@n til Friday. (Buller)
not much discusion on this event, probably due to the fact the forcast doesnt look to promising. After some intial rain tuesday/wednesday, looks like it might turn to snow wednesday night hopefully and restore the damage. Reading a forum on another weather related website an expert suggesting the cold snap towards the end of the week friday through to sunday could produce alot more than currently projected and temperatures will be good. IMO 20-25mm of rain tue/wed followed by 30cms+ wed night through to sunday. So small net gain but good outlook for skiing next weekend
IMO not much to say. Above 1800m should be ok, say 20cm wet snow. Below, probably rain. Perhaps snow showers to follow. 15-17th looking better for snow.
Anyone liking what they are seeing on the charts? IMO I don't like it until perhaps <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Thursday</span> Friday, through the weekend.
My 3 model breakfast gives the only glimmer of hope being that the bulk of the moisture seems to be north-west of the Alps from 10-13th Frustrating when Canberra has been frozen solid for the past week
The charts are looking like rain , with wet snow falling ....MAYBE Tuesday evening . It just doen't look like a system to get excited about , in regards to quantity .Looks very meek and mild . I honestly hope I am wrong . Still ....... sitting here with my fingers crossed that not too much damage will be done before the good stuff tries to play catch up / repair .
Hard to get excited when the prediction is for snow above 2000m!!! Doesn't exactly leave much mountain to be flaked (if that verb exists)...W
Nope it looks shit to me. Turns westerley later in the week which sucks for Buller but everyone else could pick up 10cms from that. Before that it looks nasty as.
the weekend will be ok by my read but whether it repairs the damage from wednesday/thursday is another story. The only slim glimmer of hope i can see in the models is perhaps the ridging high keeping the tropical feed north.
BoM are not mentioning anything about rain. In fact (even for Buller) they are describing snow on and off for the next 7 days. Interested as to why their forecast differs from the views of the forum gurus. http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbuller.shtml
same for Hotham but temps look too warm across the board. IMO 850hp temps look to be between 0-2 degrees pretty well all week which doesn't bode well.
Access Regional BOM Forecast suggesting bucket Loads of snow on tuesday night. See link http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY20301/current/mslp-thick/IDY20301.mslp-thick.042.png http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY20301/current/mslp-precip/IDY20301.mslp-precip.042.png IMO GFS is not that good for such a localized event thats a bit marginal. see what happens
bulk of the moisture will stay ahead of the cold pool though, the high is too strong and the low looks to be not low enough so the pressure differential ain't enough IMO to suck the cold air in to the NW feed which is what would need to happen for buckets of snow. if the surface pressure predicted was nearer to 1000 I'd be backing it, as it is, I see rain > snow (late night/early morning), at best lots of wet snow> snow at 1900m+.
It's close. It feels too warm in Melbourne today, especially for a front on the way. You can feel it in the wind if it's going to rain or snow and it feels like rain.
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/forecasts/alpine-snow/mt-hotham-falls-creek Looks about right IMO Sun 08/07/2012 Fine Min 0, Max 2 1900m Moderate to Fresh, N/NW Mon 09/07/2012 4mm rain Min 1, Max 2 1950m Fresh to Gale, N/S Tue 10/07/2012 24mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1850m Storm to Strong, S/N/NW Wed 11/07/2012 2mm rain Min 0, Max 2 1850m Strong to Fresh, NW Thu 12/07/2012 44mm rain Min 2, Max 3 2200m Strong to Light, NW/N/S/W Fri 13/07/2012 8mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1800m Fresh to Strong to Light, W Sat 14/07/2012 9cm Snow Min -3, Max -1 1350m Light to Strong, W/SW/NW Sun 15/07/2012 11cm Snow Min -5, Max 0 850m Storm to Strong, NW/W/SW
That Weatherchaser forecast has changed lightly for the better later in the week. Still has temps higher than BOM on most days. 7 day Forecast for Mt Hotham & Falls Creek. Day Precipitation Temperatures Freeze Level Winds Sun 08/07/2012 Fine Min 0, Max 1 1900m Fresh to Moderate, NW Mon 09/07/2012 6mm rain Min 1, Max 2 1950m Moderate to Gale, N/S Tue 10/07/2012 30mm rain, 2cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1750m Storm to Strong, S/N/NW Wed 11/07/2012 2mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1800m Strong, NW/N Thu 12/07/2012 16mm rain Min 1, Max 3 2100m Strong to Moderate, NW Fri 13/07/2012 5cm Snow Min -3, Max 1 1400m Moderate to Fresh, NW/W Sat 14/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -4, Max -3 1150m Strong to Fresh, W Sun 15/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -5, Max 0 950m Strong to Storm to Fresh, NW/W/SW 2012-07-08.18g 2012-07-09 11:11
The real issue is how much wetness and how much wetness at any particular resort before it cools down Friday - Monday where the forecasts indicate at least light snowfalls.
The last 4 updates have said pretty much the same thing here for moisture. A good 30-50mm for Melbourne it seems and 100mm plus for the alps! Others have said GFS overstates moisture! We will see I guess My prediction for Perisher 40mm rain 35cms of snow By next Monday morning At a guess
Yeah...NSW forecasts are only at approx an inch of rain in total. I'll be going into deep transcendental snow meditation tonight in effort to bring freezing level down a few hundred for this one, as I have a trip 16 to 21 July. Last time I tried the meditation, it was August 1992...check it out on the snowy hydro chart.... http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowDepth.asp?pageID=46&parentID=6&mode=submitted
I hope we somehow end up with more base from this than less. I shall channel SD's positive energy on this one. (imho)
What about the last dump. Would not that have required a multiply by two for precipitation. IMO this system looks good for a big net gain
Can you provide some justification for big net gain? IMO below 1800m is going to be very bad, with a little top-up on the weekend to make up for it. Net gain at 2000m, quite probably, but that doesn't help many.
BOM are calling out the following for NSW: Tuesday - Snow above 1600m Wednesday - Snow above 1500m Thursday - it gets ugly with Snow above 2000m This appears to go against some of the predictions above and the BOM are usually more conservative with their freeze levels. What gives? What are they seeing that I can't? If they get it right, then Perisher (really the only place I care about) could be ok except for Thursday, assuming Friday it gets cold again and any precipitation is white and fluffy p.s. Skied Selwyn yesterday with the kids and it was great fun. Pity it looks like they will get washed out this week
Yeah man this dont look so good the closer it gets. There's just no cold air injection and too much moisture.
My review of 3pm GFS (IMO) Tuesday Freeze levels 2200m+ it's going to be a little wet for all, but perhaps most missing to the north? I hope so. Thursday Freeze levels still 2200m+ Friday / early Saturday Freeze level drops to 1600m then to 1400m Weekend looks ok for snow, will provide some detail shortly.
I think the best we can hope for now is that the majority of the moisture falls north of the resorts. Not looking good for cold air.
IMO Saturday looks ok Freeze level around 1400m. Should see snow showers through Sunday. EC has looked a little colder than GFS, lets see what that says in an hours time.
BOM calling heavy snow for Victorian resorts tomorrow. Where are they seeing this? Falls Creek AWS back on.
So they are for Hotham and Falls. Buller has snow showers increasing. Although they have rain for Thursday.
I predict BOM is going to roll out an industrial planetary cooling device to stop global warming... (its the only way they genna get snow imho)
