Predictions: July 10th - 16th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Jun 24, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not great initially on GFS

    [​IMG]

    Freeze levels are 2000m+, thickness suggest it may snow a little lower, but hard to see this is anything but bad for 1800m and lower.

    Chance of snow-showers Thursday & Friday when it cools down - perhaps 10cm?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The weather chaser has this:

    Mon 09/07/2012 2mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1850m Fresh to Strong, NW/N
    Tue 10/07/2012 40mm rain, 1cm Snow Min -1, Max 3 1750m Gale to Strong to Storm to Strong, N/S/NW
    Wed 11/07/2012 9cm Snow Min -1, Max 0 1550m Strong to Moderate, NW/W
    Thu 12/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -4, Max -1 1200m Moderate to Light, NW/W/SW/S
    Fri 13/07/2012 8cm Snow Min -5, Max -3 900m Moderate to Light to Strong, S

    EC is broadly similar, IMO
     
    #151 Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2012
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  2. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    So what do think? Net gain for Perisher and upper slopes of Thredbo?

    Neutral for Hotham/Falls?

    Net loss for Buller and the lower resorts?
     
  3. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    I reckon there wil be an increase above around 1800m, so I think Specer's Creek depth will go up IMO (but not much). Any lower than that the snow level will either have a neutral or only slight change in depth IMO
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Thinking slight loss for all but Perisher.
     
    #154 Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2012
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  5. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    YR.NO still going for lots of snow for Buller.

    I can't see it. IMO it will be R@n til Friday. (Buller)
     
  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    not much discusion on this event, probably due to the fact the forcast doesnt look to promising.
    After some intial rain tuesday/wednesday, looks like it might turn to snow wednesday night hopefully and restore the damage.
    Reading a forum on another weather related website an expert suggesting the cold snap towards the end of the week friday through to sunday could produce alot more than currently projected and temperatures will be good.
    IMO 20-25mm of rain tue/wed followed by 30cms+ wed night through to sunday. So small net gain but good outlook for skiing next weekend
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not much to say. Above 1800m should be ok, say 20cm wet snow. Below, probably rain. Perhaps snow showers to follow.
    15-17th looking better for snow.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Anyone liking what they are seeing on the charts?
    IMO I don't like it until perhaps <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Thursday</span> Friday, through the weekend.
     
  9. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    It looks very wet !
     
  10. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My 3 model breakfast gives the only glimmer of hope being that the bulk of the moisture seems to be north-west of the Alps from 10-13th
    Frustrating when Canberra has been frozen solid for the past week
     
  11. Dynafan

    Dynafan First Runs

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    The charts are looking like rain , with wet snow falling ....MAYBE Tuesday evening . It just doen't look like a system to get excited about , in regards to quantity .Looks very meek and mild . I honestly hope I am wrong .
    Still ....... sitting here with my fingers crossed that not too much damage will be done before the good stuff tries to play catch up / repair .
     
  12. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Hard to get excited when the prediction is for snow above 2000m!!! Doesn't exactly leave much mountain to be flaked (if that verb exists)...W
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This. Buller will get busted up big and get nothing when it turns Westerley.
     
    #163 Vermillion, Jul 9, 2012
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  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nope it looks shit to me. Turns westerley later in the week which sucks for Buller but everyone else could pick up 10cms from that. Before that it looks nasty as.
     
    #164 Vermillion, Jul 9, 2012
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  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT flat as a tack too, just all bad.

    When Donza stops posting you know it's not going to be good [​IMG]
     
    #165 Vermillion, Jul 9, 2012
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  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    the weekend will be ok by my read but whether it repairs the damage from wednesday/thursday is another story.
    The only slim glimmer of hope i can see in the models is perhaps the ridging high keeping the tropical feed north.
     
  17. carto

    carto First Runs

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    #167 carto, Jul 9, 2012
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  18. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
     
    #168 themaninblack, Jul 9, 2012
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    same for Hotham but temps look too warm across the board. IMO
    850hp temps look to be between 0-2 degrees pretty well all week which doesn't bode well.
     
  20. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's hard to find anything to get excited about on the charts at the moment.
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #171 7wombathead, Jul 9, 2012
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  22. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cant see snow on that chart 850 temps too warm IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    #172 Alfred14, Jul 9, 2012
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  23. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    bulk of the moisture will stay ahead of the cold pool though, the high is too strong and the low looks to be not low enough so the pressure differential ain't enough IMO to suck the cold air in to the NW feed which is what would need to happen for buckets of snow.

    if the surface pressure predicted was nearer to 1000 I'd be backing it, as it is, I see rain &gt; snow (late night/early morning), at best lots of wet snow&gt; snow at 1900m+.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I agree

    But its not a right off just yet.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's close. It feels too warm in Melbourne today, especially for a front on the way. You can feel it in the wind if it's going to rain or snow and it feels like rain.
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    http://www.theweatherchaser.com/forecasts/alpine-snow/mt-hotham-falls-creek

    Looks about right IMO

    Sun 08/07/2012 Fine Min 0, Max 2 1900m Moderate to Fresh, N/NW
    Mon 09/07/2012 4mm rain Min 1, Max 2 1950m Fresh to Gale, N/S
    Tue 10/07/2012 24mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1850m Storm to Strong, S/N/NW
    Wed 11/07/2012 2mm rain Min 0, Max 2 1850m Strong to Fresh, NW
    Thu 12/07/2012 44mm rain Min 2, Max 3 2200m Strong to Light, NW/N/S/W
    Fri 13/07/2012 8mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1800m Fresh to Strong to Light, W
    Sat 14/07/2012 9cm Snow Min -3, Max -1 1350m Light to Strong, W/SW/NW
    Sun 15/07/2012 11cm Snow Min -5, Max 0 850m Storm to Strong, NW/W/SW
     
    #176 skiflat, Jul 9, 2012
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  27. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    That Weatherchaser forecast has changed lightly for the better later in the week. Still has temps higher than BOM on most days.

    7 day Forecast for Mt Hotham &amp; Falls Creek.
    Day Precipitation Temperatures Freeze Level Winds
    Sun 08/07/2012 Fine Min 0, Max 1 1900m Fresh to Moderate, NW
    Mon 09/07/2012 6mm rain Min 1, Max 2 1950m Moderate to Gale, N/S
    Tue 10/07/2012 30mm rain, 2cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1750m Storm to Strong, S/N/NW
    Wed 11/07/2012 2mm rain, 1cm Snow Min 0, Max 2 1800m Strong, NW/N
    Thu 12/07/2012 16mm rain Min 1, Max 3 2100m Strong to Moderate, NW
    Fri 13/07/2012 5cm Snow Min -3, Max 1 1400m Moderate to Fresh, NW/W
    Sat 14/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -4, Max -3 1150m Strong to Fresh, W
    Sun 15/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -5, Max 0 950m Strong to Storm to Fresh, NW/W/SW

    2012-07-08.18g 2012-07-09 11:11
     
  28. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not looking great there.
     
  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  30. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    s4d [​IMG]
     
    #180 smitty484, Jul 9, 2012
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  31. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    The real issue is how much wetness and how much wetness at any particular resort before it cools down Friday - Monday where the forecasts indicate at least light snowfalls.
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Smitty curse strikes again.
     
    #182 Vermillion, Jul 9, 2012
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic.
     
  34. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The last 4 updates have said pretty much the same thing here for moisture.

    A good 30-50mm for Melbourne it seems and 100mm plus for the alps!

    Others have said GFS overstates moisture! We will see I guess


    [​IMG]


    My prediction for Perisher
    40mm rain
    35cms of snow

    By next Monday morning

    At a guess
     
    #184 skiflat, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    Hope your right Skidown!
     
  36. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    #186 agentBM, Jul 9, 2012
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO take GFS totals and divide by 2. [​IMG]
     
    #187 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
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  38. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    I hope we somehow end up with more base from this than less. I shall channel SD's positive energy on this one. (imho)
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    What about the last dump. Would not that have required a multiply by two for precipitation.

    IMO this system looks good for a big net gain
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can you provide some justification for big net gain? IMO below 1800m is going to be very bad, with a little top-up on the weekend to make up for it.
    Net gain at 2000m, quite probably, but that doesn't help many.
     
  41. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    BOM are calling out the following for NSW:
    Tuesday - Snow above 1600m
    Wednesday - Snow above 1500m
    Thursday - it gets ugly with Snow above 2000m

    This appears to go against some of the predictions above and the BOM are usually more conservative with their freeze levels. What gives? What are they seeing that I can't?

    If they get it right, then Perisher (really the only place I care about) could be ok except for Thursday, assuming Friday it gets cold again and any precipitation is white and fluffy [​IMG]

    p.s. Skied Selwyn yesterday with the kids and it was great fun. Pity it looks like they will get washed out this week [​IMG]
     
    #191 PowWow, Jul 9, 2012
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has plenty of precip for the 7 day period.

    [​IMG]

    BOM also has plenty (6am assessment)

    [​IMG]
     
    #192 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] 100mm and warm throughout....
     
    #193 mick chopps, Jul 9, 2012
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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah man this dont look so good the closer it gets. There's just no cold air injection and too much moisture.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    My review of 3pm GFS (IMO)

    Tuesday
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Freeze levels 2200m+ it's going to be a little wet for all, but perhaps most missing to the north? I hope so.

    Thursday
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Freeze levels still 2200m+

    Friday / early Saturday
    [​IMG]
    Freeze level drops to 1600m then to 1400m

    Weekend looks ok for snow, will provide some detail shortly.
     
    #195 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
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  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the best we can hope for now is that the majority of the moisture falls north of the resorts. Not looking good for cold air.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Saturday looks ok

    [​IMG]

    Freeze level around 1400m.
    Should see snow showers through Sunday.

    EC has looked a little colder than GFS, lets see what that says in an hours time.
     
    #197 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
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  48. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    BOM calling heavy snow for Victorian resorts tomorrow. Where are they seeing this?

    Falls Creek AWS back on.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    So they are for Hotham and Falls. Buller has snow showers increasing.
    Although they have rain for Thursday.
     
  50. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    I predict BOM is going to roll out an industrial planetary cooling device to stop global warming... (its the only way they genna get snow imho)