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Predictions: July 10th - 16th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Jun 24, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    850hPa temps are 2 to 4C on Access & thickness around 548. Although with lower pressure 850hPa will be a little lower than 1600m IMO. GFS has freeze levels of 2200-2400m tomorrow.
    So heavy snow seems a little optimistic? Then again they are the pros.

    00z EC has 850hPa temps of close to 4C
    [​IMG]
    Plenty of wet stuff too
    [​IMG]
     
    #201 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC for Thursday
    [​IMG]Wet
    [​IMG]
    Warm IMO

    But Saturday & Sunday look ok on EC too.
     
    #202 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    No idea where BOM seems to be getting this from, latest forecast for NSW:

    Tuesday: Snow above 1700m
    Wednesday: Snow above 1600m
    Thursday: Snow above 1700m
    Friday: Snow above 1300m

    Edit: That comes from the Snowy Mountains forecast, the Perisher specific forecast calls for snow on Thursday above 1900m.

    Either they're off their knockers or they know something that we don't.
    If that comes off, Perisher's going to be doing a lot a digging over the weekend.
    My prediction, everyone's gonna need gumboots....
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well that seems more reasonable than Vic BOM.
    I wouldn't write-off snow above 1800m, but that means most of Vic misses out , IMO
     
  5. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM forecast for Hotham just cant see it happening IMO
     
    #205 Alfred14, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps right at the top (1800) it's possible.

    yr.no confirms the optimistic vibe from EC for the weekend. 20 to 30cm predicted.
     
    #206 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  7. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    looking at the charts i see moisture, but fail to see where cold air is coming from.
     
  9. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Even though it may seem a bit more reasonable than Vic BOM, the charts seem to be predicting significantly warmer temps than BOM seems to think will occur. (around 4-6 degrees at 850 hpa on Tuesday according to ACCESS-R).

    It does cool down on Wednesday to approximately what BOM is saying but Tuesday seems all wrong.
     
    #209 Dacer, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  10. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Weatherzone doesn't seem to be getting the same memo as BOM either.

    Tues: 1900m
    Wed: 1800m
    Thur: 1700m (although only 1700m overnight, rain during day)
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    My justification is the Access R synoptic charts. Even though the 540 line is not crossing the alps (Tuesday to friday), we have at least a 544 to 546 line, so I don't think that there is massive amount of warm air induction either. I am thinking of the short days and cold nights. I mean in summer this would be definitely be rain. [​IMG]

    The recent BOM forecast seem to back it up. IMO There will be some rain and wet snow, above 1800m over the next dew days, but a net gain from RL 1700 to 2200m, which sits well with me as I keen to ride the Main Range anyway. The follow up of cold air injection on the weekend may be good too ride too.

    The south east faces will also benefit from the rain as there is some what of an avalanche danger early last week.

    I guess the creeks below 1700m may cop a hiding but I am hoping they don't, as the moisture may track north of Canberra, as other people suggest on the forum.

    Who knows
    [​IMG]
     
    #211 7wombathead, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Maybe BOM don't trust the models and are doing their own work... E.g. Would the 1010 line really do a tight figure S over the bite as per EC? To the novice that doesn't look very realistic. Are the models broken by this progression?
     
  13. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO due to the fact it has been extremely cold over the alps the last week, this cold air will help cool the warm air coming with the moisture from the north, therefore keeping the snowline lower than the synoptic charts say, this could be part of the BOM and weatherzone forecasters thinking.
     
    #213 Chowder11, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  14. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Weatherchaser and BOM said 2 degrees at Hotham today but it topped out at -0.3 and the BOM said 3 degrees for Buller and looks like it topped out at 1.3 What do these observations indicate? Dunno! Except that there will always be variances in forecasting and as we all know a variance of 1 or 2 degrees can be the difference between joy and misery. Hotham already down to -1.3 Does that really correspond with the charts? I don't think so.
     
  15. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree and i said this earlier in the week that the models just dont look natural to my very amature map reading eyes
     
    #215 Chowder11, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  16. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think this backs up what i was saying before about the cold air hanging around from the previous weeks freezing temperatures
     
    #216 Chowder11, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Well I think BOM's using this access R Chart combined with colder surface temperatures, reported.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY20301/current/T/500hPa/IDY20301.T-500hPa.039.png

    The chart above definitely indicates cold air uppers feeding in to moisture. Hence heavy snow. Snow will be heavier and excellent for a base (fingers cross). The last few dumps have been a wee bit dry (sick to ride) but be blown around by the wind.

    This dump is like a heavy spring dump, IMO.
     
    #217 7wombathead, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Thursday might not be fun (wet) but Wed and Sat look good.
     
  19. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Honestly, I hope the above predictions are right.

    Because, IMO it looks like 'warm' temperatures all the way through until Friday night.

    That means Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of rain/sleet/slush.

    The cover will be Annihilated if this happens.

    [​IMG]
     
    #219 Stratus, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  20. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    But, I expect a foot of snow Friday night into Sunday if the current scenario pulls off.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, that's what EC is suggesting, IMO
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    It's pretty chilly down here at mo...doesnt feel warm moist northerlys..
     
  23. Coops5432

    Coops5432 First Runs

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    Im predicting a very ordinary day on the mountain tomorrow.
     
  24. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    very warm in Melb, feels like autumn/spring. Any prediction on loss over cover to those areas exposed to 50-100mm?? Is there a rule of thumb eg 1mm = 0.5cm?
     
  25. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    1mm rain maketh about 1cm of snow, and it seems to eat it at about the same rate
     
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Negative. IMO
     
    #226 Stratus, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    so, i've shown you mine
     
  28. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Depends on the snowpack and how compressed it is, it will absorb quite a bit of moisture if the temps are quite low (ie 1 degree), however from my observation once a threshold is reached the snow cover capitulates quickly.
     
  29. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    thanks all. Was up up to speed on the accumulation rule of thumb but had never thought about how it worked in reverse. My gut feel was around 1mm->0.5cm of deterioration. Was hoping one of the guys who keep snowlevel charts might have some quantitative rather than anecdotal evidence.
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Exactly. A steep slope will loose snow/slush due to run off, where as a flat area may retain the water/slush for longer. Usually it's not a big deal for pre frontal rain as when the cold air hits it freezes the slush....but in this case, this is no pre frontal. This could be 3 Days of above freezing with rain....
     
    #230 Stratus, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I'm not so worried about tomorrow. Thursday looks much worse at this stage.
     
  32. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    What are your estimates for each of the majors Tues->Fri CC?
     
    #232 Slim, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it looks to me that the northern resorts (inc Hotham and Falls) will see a little more precipitation tomorrow and southern (Buller) on Thursday & Friday, so it should balance out.
    At this stage it looks like 30mm+ (GFS shows much more) between now and late Friday. Freeze levels are above 2000m, but we may still see snow down to 1800m. So, for example Summit at Hotham may get snow, while the bottom of HV may be very wet.
    Then on the weekend it looks like 20 to 30cm of snow perhaps down to 1200m.
     
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah no way IMO. Rain is not great, but a solid snowpack holds up ok against rain. Sunny days with strong NW winds are what really do the damage.
     
    #234 smitty484, Jul 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  36. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Cheers, i'd be happy with that based on above discussion. Anything +/- 10cm by Sun would be a great result above 1200
     
  37. pansnow

    pansnow First Runs

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    With the cold nights that we have been having in the mountions I I would say that the damage from rain will not be as bad as we think. In some places the base will be like concrete and it will needed a lot of rain and warm winds to damage it. If it was spring time I a would be worried. Once the temp drops after the rain the ice will be deadly.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I can tell you from personal experience the snowpack at perisher is frozen...solid. ive never seen a drier harder snowpack at the 7th july....well maybe 2004 and 2000....but...its hard....anyways...bom seems confident of snowlevels..this event in sept would be a wipeout...july its cold
     
  39. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah imo its looking nasty from tommoz until about friday.then hopefully we can get the 20-30cm fall to replenish any damage!hopefully baw baw misses baulk of rain from now until friday,usually when it comes from nw they hold up pretty well.
     
  40. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    rain isn't rain. The temperature of the water is very important in determining melt. 50mm of 1 degree rain will not have a whole lot of damge compared to 50mm of 10 degree rain.
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    this..its a cold july so far...i can't see it getting too warm..our pipes have froze three nights in a row...first time in 4 years
     
    #241 Donza, Jul 9, 2012
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  42. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    What you all thinking about the freeze level for North East Tas for Ben Lomond in this system? Its looking very interesting, I know its looking bad for the Mainland resorts, but the BOM is forecasting snow for the mountain through the end of the week after a bit of rain on Wednesday and then Snow through from Thursday to Monday!

    http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/ben-lomond.shtml
     
    #242 BenLomondBezzer, Jul 10, 2012
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  43. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    There are busted pipes from one end of Frankton Rd to the other in Queenstown at the moment but IMO that won't count for anything if the northerly comes in as wet and warm as forecasts are suggesting.
     
    #243 ScottGN, Jul 10, 2012
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM have updated their forecast to be heavy snow above 1700m for today.
     
    #244 Claude Cat, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can see lots of rain.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The Weather Chaser GFS snow-forecast for Hotham & Falls

    Tue 10/07/2012 36mm rain, 2cm Snow Min 0, Max 3 1850m Gale to Storm to Strong to Gale, S/N/NW
    Wed 11/07/2012 2cm Snow Min 0, Max 1 1800m Strong to Fresh, NW
    Thu 12/07/2012 8mm rain Min 2, Max 3 2200m Strong to Fresh, NW
    Fri 13/07/2012 2mm rain, 5cm Snow Min -2, Max 1 1550m Fresh to Strong, NW/W
    Sat 14/07/2012 10cm Snow Min -5, Max -3 950m Fresh to Strong, W
    Sun 15/07/2012 2mm rain, 7cm Snow Min -5, Max 0 1050m Strong to Storm to Fresh, W/SW
    Mon 16/07/2012 2mm rain, 2cm Snow Min -1, Max 1 1450m Light to Strong, SW/W/NW
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Its going to get warmer and warmer with the NOrtherly, into Thursday.

    Any snow today will be a bonus, it's going to rain.

    If AXS G pulls off it's Friday Scenario, strong Westerly's...Buller is stuffed.

    IMO
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup I had a look yesterday and saw the W and thought sheesh Buller is going to be munted.
     
    #248 Vermillion, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
    #249 Claude Cat, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  50. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #250 skiflat, Jul 10, 2012
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