Predictions: July 10th - 16th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Jun 24, 2012.

  1. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1
    ouch
     
    #251 Slim, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,424
    Likes Received:
    50,625
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Remember it's GFS, divide by 2 IMO [​IMG]
     
    #252 Claude Cat, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    still ouch though!
     
  4. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1
    7 days though. 3 days showing 40-60mm with a big hit sliding slightly north to my eye. If we can halve that, it might not be too bad. Anyone wanna have a stab at freeze levels for Sat-Mon?
     
  5. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    cold enough for snow at all resorts imo
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,424
    Likes Received:
    50,625
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS suggests 1400m down to 1200m on Saturday, before lifting late Sunday IMO
     
  7. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1
    going on 96hrs-180hrs could pick up another 30-50cm...or half based on GFS theory. With a bit of luck the lower slopes may break even from this weeks likely loss.
     
  8. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 10, 2009
    Messages:
    638
    Likes Received:
    15
    BOM forecast from this morning for Hotham is looking pretty close.

    Cloudy. Heavy rain developing during the morning, falling as snow above about 1700 metres. Winds northerly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 50 to 60 km/h in the late afternoon.

    I tended to doubt the temp would come into line. Will be interested to see what the next few hours bring and if the temperatures stay down. Thoughts?
     
  9. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    TAS
    I would say its looking marginal BLB for Wed (Ben Lomond). However its looking a little more promising than forecasts earlier in the week. IMO, if we keep everything crossed, I think there is a chance that most precipation above 1400m will end up falling as snow on Wed.
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,103
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Might not be as bad as it was looking. AXR R shows the bulk of the moisture holding far North West of the ranges IMO. That is, a relatively dry (or drier) Thursday and Friday.
     
  11. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Indeed, fingers crossed.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,424
    Likes Received:
    50,625
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    ACCESS yes, but GFS no, IMO
    perhaps a little further north, but not that much.
    [​IMG]
     
    #262 Claude Cat, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  13. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    GFS is showing very little moisture for Thursday IMO
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,424
    Likes Received:
    50,625
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yes, most of that above is in the next 24 hours.
     
  15. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    [​IMG]
     
    #265 smitty484, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  16. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Yeh Wednesday still looks wet
     
  17. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1
    Looks like a downgrade for the alpine areas from this am.

    I read that to be in 25-50mm range over 7 days (or half that on GFS theory). Could be a lot worst if that pushes south or east even another 40-50kms. Talk about on the precipice.

    I'd def take that, and hope something close to half comes after Fri.
     
    #267 Slim, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    #268 7wombathead, Jul 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,875
    Likes Received:
    14,372
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Looks like the BOM prediction of La Nina being over are wrong again. I can't believe people place any weight on the long range business. Central NSW will have minor flooding again at the end of this weekend IMO.
     
  20. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    8,662
    Likes Received:
    7,858
    Location:
    The Shire, Sydney
    Weatherzone seem to like this one. Quite a lot:

    Wed Jul 11
    Rain tending to snow 2-5cm 1500m

    Thu Jul 12
    Rain and snow 2-5cm 1800m

    Fri Jul 13
    Windier with snow showers 5-10cm 1400m

    Sat Jul 14
    Windy with snow showers 5-10cm 1100m

    Sun Jul 15
    Windy with snow showers 5-10cm 1100m

    Mon Jul 16
    Snow showers, wind easing <2cm 1500m

    Tue Jul 17
    Isolated snow showers <2cm 1500m

    Wed Jul 18
    Isolated snow showers <2cm 1500m

    Thu Jul 19
    Windy with snow showers 2-5cm 1400m

    Are they smoking something or could they be right?
     
  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Well I wouldn't say they like it quite a lot, fairly average forecast. But seems fairly reasonable. Still going to be quite wet at some of the resorts, but hopefully there is 15-30cm over the weekend.
     
  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    30,117
    Likes Received:
    13,380
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    the cold pool is definitely spinning and drawing in a small feed but it's a fair way off yet.

    The ridging high just might be doing enough to keep the heaviest stuff north.
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    It looks that way as described above. I am hoping for some moisture feed into that approaching cold pool with wetter stuff moving to the north. Radar is trending that way.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    Southern tablelands and Blue Mountains looks looks like its gonna cop it
     
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    #275 7wombathead, Jul 11, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  26. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1
    [​IMG]

    48 hour GFS. Hotham/Falls right on the border of 10-25mm IMO, so could easily go either way. NSW should be ok.

    I'd still much rather it be pushed north and preserve the lower slopes. Fun up high for a couple of days but after that.....
     
    #276 Slim, Jul 11, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    I wouldn't like to halve that precipitation chart above.

    Hopefully it delivers a bit on Saturday night too as well as friday.

    Highs tend to ridging the lows in the next set of 360 hr GFS forecast.
     
  28. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1
    A break even down to 1400 from Mon 09- Mon 16 will be a great result IMO.
     
  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,014
    Likes Received:
    318
    Friday looks good for perisher
     
  30. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,014
    Likes Received:
    318
    Very quiet in here for obvious reasons...

    Sunday-Monday=Westerlies ?


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #280 skiflat, Jul 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    looks good but windy.

    How are those roaring 40's looking to south on the last image. Wow.
     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    They have moved up 10 degrees north since June. Looks like a windy July.