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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.
Moisture doesnt seem to be a problem on all models. A potential water storage increaser.
Snow? Not likely on current maps I reckon.
AndDee's call of rain then 5-10cm in the other thread is close to the mark imo.
5 days to change. If it bombs in Bass Strait we will have a party. It is a dynamic set-up.
There appears to be too much going on for the models to remain static over the next few days I'd estimate.
Monday's run might see things settle down a tad.
shakes head and says damn!!!! R@!N..... nuff said bring on 2011.....IMO (of course)
This ams runs still in agreeance. Rain. Potentially lots.
This morning's GFS and EC confirm the pessimistic view for Thursday, IMO
But looking at the bright side, both models seem indicate the following period, 31st to 1st to be snow bearing.
The pattern has been consistent for a few days now, so I feel it's a matter of how much (for both events) rather than if they will occur.
yep rains coming...but check the hook on the GFS!!
that looks good
considering GFS has been playing vanilla SW for the last 48 hours i'll put this down for a upgrade IMO
BTW if that pattern indicated by GFS held true I would say we'd get 30-40mm of rain Thursday - followed by 30-40cm of snow...friday sunday
Isn't that what I said yesterday?
I'm not sure there's 30cm in the hook - but I wouldn't be surprised, IMO
What sort of damage could 30-40mm do at Perisher considering it must be icy as?
BTW if anyone is unsure what I'm talking about re the "hook"
IMO a hook enables a NW feed, or most moisture for that matter to be intergrated into a system
you can see a hook in the way the isobars turn suddenly ..
i'm yet to be convinced that the first cutoff low is as warm as GFS progs it to be..I think (going off LAPS)
it will be colder
My take on a "best case scenario"from current charts would be most of the moisture pushing North East Thursday Friday and then snow with the sucker punch next weekend
Latest update (GFS) is a tad more kind by the looks of things (to me anyway)...
Short, but intense rain band Thursday evening getting pushed along by what appears to be a strong westerly fetch from the bight.
Still some surprises yet to be had I suspect.
Going on past experience, if there is mositure in the first week of Aug it will be good. More important it's better to have mositure (rain/snow) then have what we had in 2006.... dry weather. IMO
I think the friday/saturday system will be big.
Friday and Saturday will want to be big to make up for the way this Thursday's shaping up to be. At this stage I think 30mm+ of rain Thursday.
Trough into Low over NSW.
A few fronts in there.
Bit of a change with the 3pm GFS run.
Friday through Saturday now looks like the danger time (Thursday not as bad), IMO.
Although there appears to be chance of rain on Wednesday too.
But to bring smiles on your faces, this looks great for Sunday, 1st August.
I'll take nogaps for friday thanks
Why are there 2 threads for the same dates?
What I do like about the set up for later in the week is the breakdown of that belt of high pressure. The hook also looks good at the moment. At this stage as we have seen all year anything can happen however if I was to make a call from the current charts I would say IMO 40-50mm rain through to Saturday and then 20-30cm of snow through to Sunday night
The other one is closed. The discussion is continuing here.
timing still hasn't settled, charts still flip flopping around. There will be rain, IMO, there will be snow. It is just a matter of how much and when.
Nice "each way" bet there Smitty !!
Can I get some of that action ??
I know it should be in Obs, but it is snowing lightly in Perisher ATM.
BOM charts look like a pineapple again which will start the shutdown of more areas. Very depressing
well I have vested interest that weekend so I am still holding out for some positives.
However the charts have been changing with their timing, so I don't think it is all settled just yet.
Just looked at this afternoon's EC run, still looks good, IMO for the 1st. Not great on the 29/30th though.
Hate to harp on it, but I really really really really hope this H cell moves/breaks down soon. It's the key to love this coming weekend.
Cut-off low scenario developing (9pm GFS run)?
Am runs showing less warm moisture except cough gasp
Still hope for this sytstem.
Trailing High pressure forecast to ridge as per usual
Certainly not looking great at the moment. But i'd take 100mm of rain just to see some action. No chance of anything happening with that high hanging around.
Thursday through Saturday indeed look soggy, IMO. GFS is showing towards 75mm before cold air moves through, if I'm reading it right. There should be snow, IMO on Sunday, although it looks to be a short, sharp system.
EC has an interesting scenario aye?
GFS is interesting cause its parked another ECL off the coast.
75mm! There will be no base left...
Not looking too good at this stage. Still a bit out though so plenty of time to change.
IMO As I said a few days back
Epic rain (only a very little IMO for the rain, as it's going to rain IMO)
Followed by 5-10cms of snow with a bigger IMO as there is still a chance of 10-20cms of snow
ACCESS says rain on Friday, snow on Monday.
BTW the forecast is for an exceptional heatwave in the north/northwest of Australia this week.
If anyones interested...this is WZ opinion
Jul 26 Early frost/fog. Mostly sunny 20% nil - Freshening W/SW Fair snow forecast chart
Jul 27 Early frost/fog. Mostly sunny 20% nil - Light variable Fair snow forecast chart
Jul 28 Cloudier. Showers developing 50% <2cm 1800 Fresh NE/N Deteriorating snow forecast chart
Jul 29 Windier. Rain developing 80% 2-5cm 2000 Strong N/NW Poor snow forecast chart
Jul 30 Windy with rain tending to snow 80% 2-5cm 1800 Strong N/NW Poor snow forecast chart
Jul 31 Wind easing. Rain and snow 90% 5-10cm 1700 Fresh NW/W Poor snow forecast chart
Aug 01 Colder. Windy. Snow showers 80% 5-10cm 1400 Strong NW/SW Poor snow forecast chart
Aug 02 Snow showers mostly clearing 40% 2-5cm 1400 Fresh SW/W Improving snow forecast chart
If anything that forecast suggests there is still some flip flopping yet. It's an improvement from yesterday....maybe there is an upgrade or 2 left?
an upgrade would come in the form of moisture post front...also lower than expected 850 temps on the first cutoff low.
IMO GFS hasn't changed significantly (including the 9am) in the last few days.
The follow-up on the 1st/2nd August has varied between 15-30cm depending upon the model you look at, at a guess (my guess), we're in the 15cm range as the models stand now.
What about timing of the front? It would really help my weekend if it came through 12-24 hours earlier as originally predicted by the models.
Sunday at some stage we should see snow, I wouldn't be comfortable guessing exactly when yet. Pretty hard to see it happening earlier given the current model predictions.
Yeh I can't see it happening earlier on the current runs either. But it was originally positioned to rain Thur/Fri morn and turn cold Friday evening, however now it appears to happen 24 hours later...
If that low does spin off the coast it will help no end to promote the cold air from the change... IMO
Are all these scenarios predicated on the current H moving away?
Cause at the moment the bloody thing keeps lingering and now looks like it's getting stronger...again!
End the pain!!
the High will move...cause the trough behind is giving it a hurry along... IMO
LAPS still going for a mega low developing inland come Thursday. GFS and ECM det. don't want a piece of it.
LAPS shows the low bascially destroying the high pressure barrier over the east coast, leaving nothing but an area of relatively low pressure from Melb to Perth.
This gives space for some possibly good development of an incoming low pressure system.
Then GFS with its ECL, gosh.!
This is boggling my mind.
Charts are still not inline by a long shot.
Yep- though it is Dynamic weather...IMO and obviously.
However way you look at it, IMO the charts indicate rain and mild temps with little snowfall to follow.