1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions: July 25 - August 2nd (2)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.

  1. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,386
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Oh well.

    I predict a serious pub session on friday in that case.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,885
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    #102 Claude Cat, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I agree with that... snowline of around 1700-1800 predicted.
     
    #103 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Good summary.
     
    #104 Stratus, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    times two...
     
    #105 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. shaunstoddart

    shaunstoddart First Runs

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2009
    Messages:
    191
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne Vic
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Remembering that a few days back it was around 2200, 400m in snowline has been written off so far. Still a chance for it to drop a tad more IMO. Sit back and wait.
     
  7. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,386
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Hmmmm.... Means that we might get snow on the entire length of Mt P ..... or at least the upper parts...

    Next couple of runs will be the key.... From the steady "softening" of the bad news thus far, it might not be quite so bad.... [​IMG]
     
    #107 main street, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    LAPS updated.

    Better IMO. Shows cold air potentially crossing earlier too. Still lots of pre-frontal moisture.

    Shows the low stalling 'an strengthening in the tasman. Trailing high, well at that time, the center of it is still way West of Perth, with a weak 1020hPa or so ridge extending across, which isn't very scary.

    Lots of room for movement and development in other words, and I still have NFI whats going to happen after Saturday.

     
  9. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2009
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    187
    Location:
    Southern Highlands
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Oooo, LAPS looks much better for friday IMO still not great but yes i agree with the colder air coming through sooner
    Whats LAPS like with moisture levels? On the booze maybe?
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Nah laps is IMO the right on moisture model..
     
    #110 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  11. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,386
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    getting closer to the NOGAPS model methinks.... [​IMG]
     
    #111 main street, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. mjq

    mjq First Runs

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2008
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I agree the weather map has been all over the shop, now we have a couple of lows pushing the highs away with pressure under 1000 bring it on!
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    yep...
    agreed
    snowline of 1500 friday night i reckon
     
    #113 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,386
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] !!

    Saved !! [​IMG]
     
    #114 main street, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Wouldn't that be funny if NOGAPS was right all along...in fact, I would bookmark the link to it's charts in appreciation. [​IMG]
     
    #115 Stratus, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] crew, I'm getting a little bit more excited!

    And on a pointless note, bad day here in Brisbane, overcast with showers...but not particularly cold... Damn you weather, better get colder down south!!!
     
    #116 smitty484, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I still reckon Friday will be a pub day...but you have to have one..better at the start than the end...IMO...naturally.
     
    #117 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    LAPS has been saying the same thing...
    obviously at 72 hours max...but its always had a colder core than GFS..
    i think I wrote that 11 pages back [​IMG]
     
    #118 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,943
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Woops my post above was meant for the epic and I'm not on a computer to move it. My bad CC and Sandy
     
  20. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I reckon a snowline of 1500m on Friday night is extremely bullish guys.

    Try not to get too worked up yet as things can still get worse too. Remember even at this point it's still in numerical fantasy land.

    I really want the snowline to be at 1500m on Friday night to be the case but the models could very well revert tonight. I will be at Perisher from Saturday to Tueday arvo and I'm still not getting my hopes up - yet.
     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    BoM Charts will be out soon, hopefully to back up LAPS.
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    at 10am Friday LAPS is predicting a snowline of 1773.1m ..and falling..ever so slightly. which is the same as GASP
    by 22.00 hrs that snowline GASP is at 1496.05m ....
    which is all pie in the sky type stuff...but you never know....
     
    #122 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,745
    Likes Received:
    3,019
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    afaict - when scenarios get this complicated, the BOM tend to release their updated charts later, so just a word of warning, good chance of a delay with their updates for today, and possibly for the rest of the week! [​IMG]
     
    #123 FourSquare04, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yes sometimes they are a bit slow.

    This afternoons ones just out.

    [​IMG]

    First cold front Friday night.

    Second cold front early Sunday morning.

    The question is, will it be *cold* enough.
     
    #124 Stratus, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    mmm, I'm not as bullish as others on the freeze line. In my opinion it's going to be very very close
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,006
    Likes Received:
    306
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO - This afternoons GFS run showing no snow after the rain...... [​IMG]
     
    #126 skiflat, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    That's what I mean. I have no idea why all of a sudden everyone is getting excited
     
  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Err. GFS is showing 30mm of rain then about about 10cm - 20cm accumulative of snow (if you just go off the moisture values), starting Sunday morning.

    GFS looks BETTER this afternoon, unless i'm missing something?

    Because this afternoons LAPS (greatest model on here) showed the potential for a more favourable outcome.
     
    #128 Stratus, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,885
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    The 3pm GFS run is through, and IMO:
    1. pre cold change rain fall is decreased again. Between 10-25mm rain before hand
    2. Snow appears to come through Sunday, and moisture levels are up. Perhaps 25cm of snow.
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    man its looking heaps better...
    better thickness and moisture
     
    #130 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,885
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG]

    Looks ok for Sunday, IMO.
    And in line with EC.
     
    #131 Claude Cat, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    agreed...light green on the moisture...maybe even a speck of yellow...post cold air

    look at my littlle mate to the SW of WA....(another topic)
     
  33. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2006
    Messages:
    8,692
    Likes Received:
    3,461
    Location:
    Back in MEL ( with annual trips to the 604 )
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Off Topic - Sorry Sandy / CC


    I don't understand how skidown and seekingpow can look at a chart and see nothing yet CC and Donza see an upgrade.

    Perhaps people need to give a more articulate explanation about what it is they see in the charts that gives them hope or despair. I don't think the IMO is enough. I don't understand enough about the charts and it's very confusing when people are looking at the same chart e.g. GFS today and calling vastly different outcomes without explanations

    e.g.
    Is that reasonable to request??
     
    #133 luvthabumps, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,735
    Likes Received:
    11,036
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yes, it is reasonable.

    The reason for people needing to say IMO or something similar when expressing an opinion which looks more like they expressing fact, is that often, they will offer NO OTHER explanation!!!!

    To be asking for more explanation, you are right in doing so!!!

    (and that was not off topic, when asking for clarifiation of a prediction, backed with sound reasoning)
     
  35. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2006
    Messages:
    8,692
    Likes Received:
    3,461
    Location:
    Back in MEL ( with annual trips to the 604 )
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Domo arigato Sandy san [​IMG]
     
    #135 luvthabumps, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,638
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    ACCESS-R models shows 850 hPa temps > 2 degrees from now until Friday 00Z, i.e. Friday afternoon (i.e. the entire 72 hour forecast period). It predicts rain from Wednesday afternoon until then.

    ACCESS-G shows 850 hPa temps <= 0 degrees reaching the Alps on Sunday morning. Needless to say a lot of predicted moisture will reach the Alps before then. There is not much predicted moisture beyond this point, but as always the models will underestimate moisture created by orographic lifting over small-scale topological features yadda yadda yadda.
     
  37. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I am not an expert in reading charts and I'm still learning. My opinion is based on the premise that some charts are still showing more warm moisture than others. I am merely balancing expectations across the spectrum rather than cherry picking the best OR worst ones.

    Then again I'm still a bit 'special' at reading charts. Merely balancing sentiment. There have been many times throught July where one run has completed and people have jumped on going whooooa caught my first tube today and that chart looks awesome and nothing comes of it because one run was not balanced with the mean.

    Playing law of averages LTB
     
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,735
    Likes Received:
    11,036
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Here's an example. Let's take CC's last map.

    [​IMG]

    You probably know the basics, but just in case, the highs rotate anticlockwise, and lows clockwise, along the lines of pressure (isobars). So the high over WA(where it says "1032") is pushing air from level with Perth(far west) down in a southeasterly direction well south of Australia. But air is also flowing off central Australia onto Perth, so I'd say by Sun/Mon, Perth may be expecting a couple of days close to 20 degrees.
    The low VERY far south of Australia where it says "960" is rotating clockwise. That air near Tassie is moving from SW to NE (on that flank of the rotating high) so the air is colder.

    What we are looking for on this map is green/yellow/orange/red patches, which depicts moisture. The other thing we are looking for is that red line with 540 on it. It gives an approximaton for where the colder air will be. For the moment, let's say it give a rough approximaton for a freeze level of around 1400m. Notice on this map, that it has pushed up and over the SE corner of Australia, and that combined with moisture should give us snow. Notice there's also a small patch with 528 on it? That's even colder air just near Tassie.

    So this map, IMO, shows that it will snow for part of sunday, providing it turns out this way!!!
     
    #138 Sandy, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    You forgot to mention Pressure!!
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,885
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    From GFS, the 540 line doesn't cross Australian coast until after 10pm Saturday - probably over the Alps early hours Sunday.
    GFS accumulated precipitation up to that point shows 10 - 25mm over the alps.
    GFS accumulated precipitation post cold change shows a band of 25mm (ie.cm) over the alps.
    850mb temps for Sunday are zero or below, which is good.
    The above, of course, is IMO / my interpretation of the 3pm GFS run [​IMG]
     
    #140 Claude Cat, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    interestingly the other models have a snowline of around 1500metres saturday morning..
     
    #141 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    this is where we hope gfs is wrong!
     
  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,735
    Likes Received:
    11,036
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    That's Part 2!!!!!


    Look at that map. Where ever there is strong high pressure (say greater than 1025hPa) there is no moisture. And where there is lower pressure (less than say 1010hPa), there is some cloud.
    Usually, the lower the pressure the more instability, and the more cloud there is. Notice also, that where there is pressure lower than 1000hPa, there is usually the 540 line not far away!!!!

    So what you need to look for is the 540 line and the lowest pressure you can get!!!!! If it is cold and there is a LOT of cloud, you can get a LOT of snow. So often cold and low pressure = a lot of snow.

    I'm not sure, but I'd say the pressure hasn't dropped below 1000hPa in Melbourne so far this winter.... a sure sign to me that not much snow has been falling.
     
    #143 Sandy, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,646
    Likes Received:
    1,795
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Thank you :)
     
    #144 Nidecker, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,885
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Saturday in itself looks not too wet (or snowy), according to GFS (IMO); most of the rain is Thursday/Friday, and the snow comes through on Sunday. Of course this is based on GFS run; but EC has consistently said Sunday is the day to look forward to, and I stick with that.
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I concur.... oh put me down for the
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/posts/1036030&page=1#Post1036030
     
    #146 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,638
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    According to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3049.latest.shtml , Melbourne Airport's lowest pressure this month was 1002 hPa..although you'd probably have to search through the hourly data to double check.
     
    #147 Rush, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,386
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    #148 main street, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2000
    Messages:
    3,022
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Vic, Australia
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    From what i see atm. Rain til Sun then some snow sunday! Net loss for us with this one IMO. Im hoping things dont pan out with the mositure pulling down from the north and this is possibly change for the better but can only go on the charts at this stage [​IMG]
     
    #149 Cliff-jumper_2000, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    70,475
    Likes Received:
    4,386
    Location:
    Sun Peaks, British Columbia
    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Not any more IMHO .... [​IMG]
     
    #150 main street, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013