Predictions: July 25 - August 2nd (2)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO this afternoons run had damage = gain so about an even system. But i like the setup SW of WA in the 168hr forecast (the one Donza referred to as his little mate). Looks like something really good could come out of that. But i suppose weare talking 168 hrs away just to get to WA so it may not come off.
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Even at 48hrs out, no agreeance between LAPS and GFS with regards to where the low is going to form and where its going to go.
     
  3. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    That 540 line is a loooooong way from the alps
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    sorry mate..what day you mean?...
    on GFS on sunday 1600hrs indicates a thickness of less than 5320..
     
    #154 Donza, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I retract - wrong day [​IMG]
     
    #155 seekingpow, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Forecast for Victorian Al.p,s

    [​IMG]
     
    #156 Stratus, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    looks better and better....
    I won't jinx it yet...cause NSW BOM are less bullish.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG]

    EC looks very good for 1st & 2nd, IMO.

    I can't see where Vic bom is getting 1500 snow line for Friday, but they are the pros, so lets see how it pans out. I guess they expect a bit more southerly on Friday than what GFS is showing.
     
    #158 Claude Cat, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    CC maybe from their special 96 hours LAPS lol?
    on the WZ meteograms its
    1700 odd for GFS
    1647 friday Am for laps.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    EC shows quite warm 850mb temps on Friday and only marginally better Saturday morning.
     
  11. Teisto

    Teisto One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    At least BOM are starting to factor snow in a bit earlier than previous reports. The concern is still the number 4 on Thursday indicating 20-40mm of the wet stuff.
     
  12. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    But at least the predicted snow level has been dropping....... Hell, 1700-1800 is waaaaay better than 2200....
     
  13. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Nice work Sandy..and Claude
    Fascinating weekend setup
    What I'm liking is D-san's call from a few days ago when things were bleakest when he called the stalling and trailing highs with the cold front pushing up between them
    Well blow me down, that little 5440 has been inching towards the Alps on every update.
    It may not end up making a difference but props D-san.
     
  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yeah massive props to D-san eh SP....gotta love his enthusiasm, which is hard to muster with the likes of skidown hanging around with his doom and gloom!

    IMO, GFS has started out with serious doom and gloom but is slowly coming more into line with EC and LAPS (which it tends to do most of the time anyway) and things are looking better each day.

    Still rain for Wednesday night until Friday, but after that......
     
  15. shaunstoddart

    shaunstoddart First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    maybe it will be on? Exciting times. A day or so back I think I mentioned that this will be a carbon copy of the last dump, but waiting for this system to arrive has been a tiresome roller coaster affair, lets hope it keeps upgrading [​IMG]
     
    #165 shaunstoddart, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Did I mention that it's still only July???
     
  17. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Let's all take a deep breath. Yes models are looking a bit better but a way to go folks
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    9pm GFS run has 528 line to Victoria 18z Saturday (I think that makes it about 2am Sunday).
    IMO I'd expect snow down to 600m if that comes off.
    9pm GFS run has it cooler Saturday morning - might see some snow then if there's much moisture about.
     
  19. choc

    choc One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] ... but shouldn't that be in an obs thread?
     
    #169 choc, Jul 27, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #170 main street, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Ok,..... I know that there doesn't appear to be a lot of faith in NOGAPS, but I've gotta say that from a "local" WA perspective, that model has been damn close over the past week for over here..... & it's been pretty consistant with its "east" models for this coming weekend.

    This is the latest series that will bring a smile to a few that are in the"|hope for a miracle" zone..... [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Might be skiing friday after all..... [​IMG]
     
    #171 main street, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    & from the looks of things to me..... GFS is slowly starting to align with it.
     
  23. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG]
     
    #173 smitty484, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    & the same with the most recent runs this morning....

    https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi...12&set=Tropical

    GFS is now coming into line even more..... for the next 3 days at least..... It's showing more snow for Sun/Mon than NOGAPS is ATM.

    I'll take it. [​IMG]

    & so will a couple of others that are looking for that miracle !! [​IMG]
     
    #174 main street, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Just having a look at gfs this morning. Looking very nice for Sunday...something is brewing there!!
     
  26. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I believe so too..... NOGAPS has it there as well,..... just not delivering as much as GFS.
     
  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Forecast period:
    Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd

    Still July [​IMG]
     
    #177 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    This mornings GFS no looks like the EC chart Donza has been posting for the last 3 days. Donza kept the faith. Respect.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    cheers [​IMG]
    To me It looks like a 30-60cm 60 hr storm there ....
    thats a snowfall rate of .5cm to 1cm an hour..which is conservative IMO.
    I think it will be on the higher side....
     
    #179 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I posted this elsewheres.
    WZ computer snow forecaster ITO on things
    [​IMG]
     
    #180 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    GFS for Sunday looks totally off tap with the deepening low in Bass Straight IMO - going off that, I would say easy 20cm, but quite possibly a lot more for Buller, Baw Baw & Lake Mtn especially.....
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO, looking at LAPS, EC and GFS
    1. Rain until Friday night - models showing between 25 and 50mm over the Alps.
    2. Cold change sometime Saturday, possible early AM - probably not a lot of moisture initially
    3. Vigorous SW change Sunday through Monday GFS going for 25 mm (cm) over the Alps, perhaps(probably) more for Baw Baw / Buller.
    4. Models diverge on Monday, with EC perhaps showing the system moving on faster than GFS.

    GFS (9am run) accumulated precipitation (pre cold change)
    [​IMG]

    And post ...

    [​IMG]
     
    #182 Claude Cat, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    ACCESS still says complete fizzer regarding this system. Lots of rain and virtually no moisture once the cold air hits.
     
  34. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    PG, offset ACCESS with what the other models are saying and what do you see?
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    To be honest I don't agree 100% with what GFS is progging..and why should we?
    Its flipped around so much and now settled on a sensational scenario....
    hmm
    the low it proggs to develop doesn't seem to have a logical progression/movement
    ie right over Tasmania while still intensifying....hmmm
    I think it will be a bit further south..hence less moisture....higher pressure.
    Mind you I still reckon its a 30cent change.
     
    #185 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  36. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO - Still saying 5-15cms of snow after the change (Buller)
    IMO - It's a battle of the models and we'll only know Tuesday/Wednesday the outcome.
     
  37. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    What happened to 30-60cm D-man [​IMG]
     
    #187 seekingpow, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Stay on topic.
     
  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    ECMWF ensembles suggests very low probability of snow for this period (assuming I'm reading the data from the NMOC correctly!)
     
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO, take ACCESS With a grain of salt PG - it was calling for the 15th system to be a complete fizzer and looked what happened, we got snow and more than it was progging the whole time.....SOrry Sandy I know that's off topic but it had to be said.

    Back on topic - I agree with Donza, just because GFS does look really good this morning doesn't mean it will look exactly like that come Sunday morning. Seekingpow is on the money, a combo of all runs with a bit of common sense 'should' see a result close to the money. I really don't like GFS that much and I'm an EC man, but I know that after about 4 days out it does get a little wack as do most of the models, just use your brain and analyze all models before making a rash decision.

    Still a little hard to tell EXACTLY what will happen as there is no 100% agreeance in all models (as has been the case this entire season).

    Being an optimist, at this stage, IMO we will see rain tending to snow during Friday, Saturday will be cloudy, fairly dry and windy then come early Sunday morning it's going to start dumping and we'll get about 30cm over Sunday & Monday.
     
  41. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #191 smitty484, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  42. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Earlier today they had:
    Sat Jul 31: Wind easing.Rain tending to snow 80% 2-5cm 1500 Fresh NW/W Poor
    Sun Aug 01: Colder. Windier. Snow showers 80% 5-10cm 1200 Strong NW/SW Poor
    Mon Aug 02: Wind easing.Snow mostly clearing 50% 2-5cm 1200 Fresh SW/W Improving
    Tue Aug 03: Isolated snow showers developing 70% 2-5cm 1500 Fresh W/NW Deteriorating
    Wed Aug 04: Windy. Snow showers 70% 5-10cm 1400 Strong NW/SW Poor

    Now the precip on Tuesday and Wednesday has dried up. Looks like they have factored in the briskness of the system as CC was saying earlier
     
  43. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Seeking where are you looking? Looks like a significant upgrade to me. Colder and snowier.

     
    #193 smitty484, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Mod note - just cleaned up a few posts. Smitty's Weatherzone numbers appear to be correct from the Wed 10am weatherzone bulletin.
     
  45. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    thanks CC
     
  46. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    At the moment ACCESS is very much the 'odd one out' w.r.t to predicted synoptic features and MSLP. GFS predicts the lowest pressure, UK Met Office, then ECMWF .. then ACCESS predicts the highest pressure.

    Will be interesting to see inside 100 hours if the models converge a bit or do GFS and ACCESS remain diametrically opposed.

    FourSquare04 - you say that the earlier prediction of the 15th system shows that ACCESS was 'way out'. However, have a look at the snowdepth at Buller before/after the system. There was a net gain of about 15 cm. Spencer's Creek was about 25 cm. It wasn't the 'mega dump' everyone was hoping for. Some people were predicting about 50 cm. I can't recall what I predicted.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Wow this is quite interesting.

    ECM shows the trough fizzling out as it reaches the east coast by Friday. Then a typical low developing from the south, moves up, bringing snow Sunday night as it spins off as a tasman low (in NZ direction).

    GFS shows the trough *ALMOST* developing into an ECL, but not quite, and instead dying off. It then shows ECM's scenario with a low moving up and delivering snow, albiet 24hours earlier. (then spinning off to NZ)

    However, look at LAPS / GASP Combo. They show the initial trough, STILL forming into a low in the Tasman (overnight friday) spinning snow. AS Well as showing the second low (shown by GFS / ECM), coming through 24hours later.

    Whats funny is that even at 48hours out, LAPS/GASP are in no agreence with EC/GFS.
     
  48. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I think this is the start of some serious snow. 30-50cm out of this system with nice things to follow.

    OFF TOPIC: I have a bet going over at snowatch that we will receive 80cm by 15 August

    ON TOPIC: Should get snow through until Tuesday, with most of it coming Sunday.
     
  49. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Looking like a lot of rain and a little snow at this stage. A net loss off piste but a probable gain on the snowmaking areas. Tell those groomers to push it down tight though.
    IMO
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Latest LAPS is out...this is my take on it..
    I can sorta see the agreement now...and why the snowlevel is predicted for 1500 friday night.
    however the timing is way diff...