Predictions: July 25 - August 2nd (2)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Struggling with the three systems coming through in the period me thinks.
     
    #201 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  2. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    LAPS looks to have a little moisture spot brewing over the mountains on Sat......I dunno about 1500m on Friday night, possibly late Friday night?
     
  3. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Ok. Why are half the people here saying "oh yeah heps of rain, no snow" and others saying "yep looks like some good snow after the rain".

    Very difficult to gauge whether these are unbacked or backed statements as there is no reasoning published.
     
  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    On the face of it this looks quite good for 20cm +.... from Friday IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #204 dawooduck, Jul 28, 2010
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  5. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Ask the people being negative why and get them to back it up, look at what the people being positive back their claims up with and if necessary ask why and then make your decision.

    I think one thing is for sure and this system is a bit "tricky"
     
    #205 smitty484, Jul 28, 2010
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  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    It's a good point!!!!!!


    #######################################################

    MODERATOR'S NOTE TO POSTERS

    Since the models are show so many different things, can you please do a map capture and show the source of your opinion/prediction!!!
     
    #206 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
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  7. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I don't know what models people are looking at who are calling lots of rain and little snow.....all the models I see show action of some form.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    The 1pm LAPS charts don't have the 540 line crossing the alps until 7am Saturday, so I still can't see where the low (1500) snowlevel for Friday comes from.
     
    #208 Claude Cat, Jul 28, 2010
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  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    In what regard?
    I think PG has been the only one to say yep no show, looks dry and cold post change... in that regard he is articulating what the ACCESS model is showing.
    we don't have access to the ACCESS so I guess we don't have a chance to counter.
    My take. For NSW
    Today will gradually see showers creep into the mountains. They are atreaming down from a moist trough being fed by easterly winds. Basically the winds on the QLD north coast have been east for the past week or so and have brewed a fair bit of moisture into the trough. This trough is travelling in a SE direction with the ranges splitting most of the rain
    Thursday. rain will start to fall in NSW. You can see this already on the radar firing off over SA. Very active trough mixing and milling around with heaps of moisture. Rain will come from the NW-W. Bad news.. Will start to clear by Friday morning...but still persist. The wildcard..the chance of a storm. If a decent storm cell plonks its [auto-censor] on Perisher its bad bad news. The air will be moist and warm from the North..(however not as warm as it was progged a few days back as this change isn't drawing as much warm air with it as first thought...it will be windy. I expect 10-20mm of rain with the wildcard of a storm maybe throwin down 40mm. However I will say this. The trough is being squeezed further NE with each model run because...
    Friday. A trailing high will gradually sneak up on the state during friday. This coupled with the complex arrangement of a trough now mid tasman a stable high over NZ and a aggresive high centred SW of perth has the cause and effect of pushing colder air towards the Alps.. I see little rain Friday. maybe in the region of 5-10mm. If any of this rain falls after say midnight on friday night it should fall as snow on Perisher. Interestingly there is a SW component off teh moisture to this system so IMO we might see some sneaky falls around Buller ...but anyays.
    Saturday...fine day...getting super windy and a few snowshowers about on higher parts...due to the weather being between two systems IMO it seems to never really clear, just gets windier and windier...snowlevel for mine 1600...
    Then saturday a crazy change will come through..depending on the moisture and timing of the front I think its very probale you'll see snow start saturday night... to me It looks moist...but not super so...but going from the rainfall predictions it seems to have a NW component to it intially..which will help NSW...I expect around 20-30cm easily and wouldn't be suprised to see 50 by monday PM time...mainly due to a couple of factors...its cold....thickness is well sub 5400 according to GFS. Also the placement of the low post change is a wild card. If it bombs in bass straight we could see promotion of intense levels of moisture...

    thats my reasoning.
    in summing up
    rain...not as much as we thought and pretty much the heaviest Thursday
    snow..arriving friday night saturday AM. then full on Saturday night.
     
    #209 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Map Captures take so long.

    LAPS has got rid of the developing tasman low from the trough, and appears more inline with GFS / EC. Good news - It shows the cold air coming through 8am Saturday.

    And more good news - Going off chart moisture values alone, LAPS shows a significant downgrade in pre-frontal rain (MAX about 30mm), then it was previously showing.

    [​IMG]


    NOTE: There *should* is a SECOND front following this one on Sunday, which GFS at this stage, is expecting to bring the majority of snowfalls.
     
    #210 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Check where the 540 line is at say friday evening..basically Portland...
    Its not unheard of for a system to snow infront of its cold air...It does seem to be getting closer each run. maybe they figure the cold air is being pushed in front ?....
     
    #211 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    LAPS and more particularly Meso-LAPS are forecasts over a much smaller grid. Therefore the underlying terrain model (which works on average altitude across each grid square) gives the mountains a bit more elevation so accounts for oragraphic effects much better than GFS, which averages elevation over a much larger area for the terrain model.
     
    #212 Snow Blowey, Jul 28, 2010
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  13. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Impressive interpretation Donza.

    I hope you're right except for the wildcard call.
    The cold mixing with the warm moist air could very well trigger some unstable air and a t-storm.

    Hope it's not over the alps...
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    That's a bit like saying when the cold air hits Mt William we'll get snow in the Alps. The uppers appears to be too warm to me, IMO.
    Perhaps 3 or 4am if all goes well.
     
  15. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    This is still valid..and the reason for my pessimism. Although synoptically ACCESS-G is the most 'pessimistic' of all four models its closer to ECMWF than GFS which IMO makes me trust it more...

    ...because ECMWF have the biggest computers, the best data assimilation and ensemble algorithms and the most money...which is why I regard it as the standard bearer of Numerical Weather Prediction.

    The 00Z updates will be up soon, Iet's see if they are any different.
     
    #215 Rush, Jul 28, 2010
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  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I agree, its already quite warm. Depends how cool the Westlery's are really, but I can't see snow till 7AM.
     
    #216 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Walla

    [​IMG]
     
    #217 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    yeah 4am for me.... but evening, colder...hmmm
     
    #218 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    walla walla
     
  20. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    re: the 4am, 7am etc comments, are you talking Sat AM or Sun AM.

     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Sat Am
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Interesting - the MSLP analysis charts produced by the forecasters resemble the EC/GFS more than ACCESS-G. They've jumped off the bandwagon [​IMG]
     
    #222 Rush, Jul 28, 2010
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  23. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Sometimes it's just the vibe, the feelings in the bones and magnets.
     
    #223 TJ, Jul 28, 2010
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  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    That's what the BBQ thread is for!!!

    Even dumps "of biblical proportions" are identifed by sound principles of forecasting and not vibe!! [​IMG]
     
    #224 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
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  25. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Thanks Afiact.

    excuse my igroance and If this should move threads please let me know.

    i've read Sandy's decription earlier to help me understand the charts which was great but i just have a question. Doesn't the pressure indicate mositure? If so, the 1016 isobar seems to be about over the alps approx 10am thurs. why is there so much moisture predicted for thurs? I would've thought from what i have read that 1016 indicates fairly stable conditions. Would love any further explanation anyone can provide.
    cheers
     
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Latest GFS chart not so good for the first front Sat Am (that LAPS is showing), infact, it doesn't really show a front at all!

    However, it still has the second one coming through overnight Sunday, and boy, it looks nice.

    [​IMG]

    Note potential for ECL. Thanks.
     
    #226 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Remember, I also said this:

    I said that greater 1025hPa, there is pretty much no moisture. And less than around 1010hPa, there is usually some cloud. This is usually true for our neck of the woods (the lower half of Australia, say south of northern NSW)

    This leaves a "gap", you might say, between 1010hPa and 1025hPa, where quite a few things CAN happen.

    This this case, there is an easterly wind blowing off a warm tropical sea (in QLD), and this tends to pick up moisture, and push it inland. As it travels south, this moisture can hook up with a southerly front system.
     
    #227 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
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  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Afaict...GFS has goooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrne Nuts.
    I see good moisture levels on those maps.... yellow
    [​IMG]
     
    #228 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    So that's 12-15cms in 12 hours ? 24 hours ? Sunday?

    Never used maps from that source before!

    Please Explain
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    12 hours and 12-25 i'd say...so basically a snowfall rate of 1 -2cm an hour.
    I've found that to be conservative.
     
    #230 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  31. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    For the moment at least, GFS is exhibiting the perfect scenario for late Sat & Sun!!!!
     
  32. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    ahh makes sense, cheers Sandy.

    Afiact, sorry why is Sun overnight looking so good? to me, (a level below novice if such thing exists) neither of the 2 cold fronts seem to be over the alps. Obviously the air stream seems to be coming from the south west which would be good for cold air. The 1016 isobar seems to be over the alps and i assume the tropical mosture influence has passed...or at least i cant see it....Am i missing anything?

    Also is there is somewhere i can read up about this so i dotn have to annoy you all...although im sure there are a few other novices interested in the answers.

    cheers
     
  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yeh sorry meant 12-25!

    These maps seem very different to http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=AU.

    See Banter thread for more rambling...
     
    #233 skiflat, Jul 28, 2010
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=AU.
    hasn't updated yet...still old (tuesday) run.
     
    #234 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I doesn't annoy me at all.... everyone was a novice once.....

    Remember what I mentioned about what we want? We want cloud (green, yellow, orange etc), we want the red 540 line to include the mountains, and we want low pressure, preferably below 1000hPa: (the 1000hPa line is close to Victoria, so this produces cloud that will rotate across the alps)

    [​IMG]
     
    #235 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
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  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    There is the low pressure system, and the cold front (or fronts) that come from it. See the BoM Chart (black and white) I posted a page or two back.

    You can see the low pressure system moving across to the south east of tasmania. The low pressure system doesn't need to be over the alps, infact, they rarely are. Air rotates clockwise around a low, so as you can see the air (following in the direction of the iso bars) is sucked up from the SW. Remember, all this time the low is spinning clockwise, and thanks to the trailing high pressure system, a nice feed is created to feed moisture and cold air (which has developed out in the ocean), inland. I like to think that, an air mass with higher pressure doesn't *hold* mositure as well as an air mass with lower pressure. If the iso bar pressure is too high the moisture will dry up quicker.

    Lower pressure also helps moisture develop furthur, once air hits elevated terrain (orthographic lift affect), e.g. once it hits the mountains. This is a big contributing factor to snowfall development.

    The main cold front timing can be tracked by the movement of the red 540line on the chart posted by Sandy above.
     
    #236 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  37. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Cool thanks Sandy.
    So do you need to have one of the models with mosture predictions on it and the 540 line to get a good indication of what's coming?

    Is there anyway to predict moisture levels from the other maps that dont have this eg; the MSLP? or does that just come down to experience? eg: with your comment re tropical QLD moisture from the easterly air stream on thurs

    cheers
     
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Before we had all of these wonderful resources, I used to pick the amount of moisture, based on a BOM 4 days forecast and the position and depth of the low. It is a varified fact that the MSLP in Hobart is a good direct indicator for the amount of snow that falls on the Aussie alps over any season.

    Generally, the moisture coming down from QLD often produces a bad scenario(rain). In this case, it looks like the moisture might pass back out into the Pacific before causing too much damage to the snow on the alps.

    One other point.... ou don't need a cold front to produce snow. A low pressure trough in the right location will provide more snow, because it moves slowly, and sometimes the SAME cloud will rotate across the alps a SECOND time!!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #238 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
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  39. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Great thanks Afiact,i think that's what i was looking for. So as a general rule, is this statement correct? the more time a system spends over the ocean, the more moisture it picks up? then as you said the lower the pressure the longer it retains the mositure for so it has time to reach the mountains in our setup....????
     
    #239 Slim, Jul 28, 2010
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  40. Slim

    Slim Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    great thanks guys, also sorry for my dyslexic typing Afaict
     
  41. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I'm excited.

    Based off this arvos GFS, IMO, VIC and NSW will do well on sunday but NSW (particularly Thredbo) will do much better than VIC on monday-tuesday.

    IMO 30cm+ for VIC and NSW saturday - sunday, then another 30cm+ for NSW on Monday-Tuesday with thredbo getting twice the amount perisher does due to SE winds. And heavy snow all over the Monaro.
     
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    No worries, the more you follow the weather charts the more you learn as you go along.

    Back on Topic:

    GFS still not in aggrence with LAPS re: the first front!!
     
    #242 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    No and it has heaps of moisture for that period too
    It worries me aye...
    cause GFS is in dreamweaver territory
     
    #243 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
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  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yeah its annoying, would love to see convergence with the models, now at just 48hours out!

    [​IMG]

    vs

    [​IMG]
     
    #244 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
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  45. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO - More than 15cms (Buller) and I need to eat hat....

    Sorry no map to link to for this one
     
  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Can't see what you are talking about there afaict. The isobars and precipitation shown on those charts are near identical.

    The only difference is GFS has the thickness lines a little further south (say 3-400km). But the thickness is a spin off from the pressure and both have very similar pressure forecast and both show it cold enough to snow to around 1500m from saturday morning onwards. GFS showing a bit more moisture.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    and FYI Victorian Punters.

    [​IMG]
     
    #247 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Not really.

    LAPS, south westerly air flow, much colder with the low yet to develop. Snow level about 1300m.

    GFS - westerly air flow, center of trailing high a good 600km furthur to the west with 982hPa low already developed. Snow level about 1600m
     
    #248 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    But at 72 hrs out that's about as good agreement as you are going to get. The situation in 72hrs time will probably be precisely different, but approximately similar.
     
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Based on your observations? Certainley, this is the first system I can recall this season that LAPS and GFS have been constantly out of line for a good 4 - 5 updates. It means they are both playing two different scenarios.

    Put basically into context here, GFS has the cold air coming 18hours later then LAPS, which is very significant.

    However - I expect tomorrows update will be the one where it all clears up and either LAPS comes into line, or GFS comes into line.
     
    #250 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013