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Predictions: July 25 - August 2nd (2)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.

  1. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Both aligning with NOGAPS perhaps ?? [​IMG]
     
    #251 main street, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] your worship NOGAPS likes it your messiah.
     
    #252 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I disagree. Both GFS and LAPS have 5440 thickness over VIC Alps at 4am saturday. LAPS has it getting colder with 5400 crossing a little later but both show snow to 1500m or lower from 4 am saturday onwards.

    LAPS shows 5-10mm precipitation in front of 5440 thickness for VIC alps, GFS shows 1-5mm for VIC Alps. Where they differ significantly is GFS predicts 20-30mm precipitation before 4am Saturday for NSW - LAPS doesn't show this.

    GFS not adding much precipitation after the cold air arrives saturday morning, LAPs adding 5-10mm for VIC.

    IMO this doesn't matter. The good stuff is coming with the follow up front on sunday.
     
    #253 Snow Blowey, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Only when it suits me.... [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #254 main street, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Stay on topic
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #256 Claude Cat, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    I think the signs are encouraging from the 1st onwards, however the pressure is really high, is anyone else seeing this? I cant see how the moisture that is progged to fall is going to happen with such high pressures. The temps are encouraging with cold pools hanging around for a few days.

    There might be some life left yet.
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    With no offence to Frog and the BOM i consider stormchasers to be the best ...well for Victorian explanations
    It is...however I think it should be called 6 systems.. (even though its off topic) i see another one coming.. IMO everything is getting stepped back in its timing..

    chuck this epic if you wish..
     
    #258 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  9. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    After again looking at most charts and maps either linked above or posted I am happy with my original call. Looks like we may get some more snow through the week to follow as well. IMO
     
    #259 loweee, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    As far as I cant tell from the 9PM GFS run - About 35mm pre frontal to Saturday PM. But some of this may fall as snow if it is cold enough.

    Main cold front passing by early Sunday morning, bringing blizzard conditions. About 30cm (little more for NSW) falling to about Monday afternoon (about a 30hr window).

    As was mentioned by someone before, this looks like an impressive cm / hr snow fall rate!
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    9pm GFS run has the low over Tasmania appears to be about 996 hPa (not easy to tell). That's pretty reasonable given what we've had this year...
    850mb temps of around -4.
     
    #261 Claude Cat, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Still 1010hpa+ over the alps though.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Actually, the 9pm GFS run for 1 & 2 August is a thing of beauty.
    You probably couldn't have a much better looking system. IMO moisture prog. by this run is between 25 & 50mm (cm), and very cold. Snow to low levels, 528 line centred over Victoria, just lovely.

    [​IMG]
     
    #263 Claude Cat, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yeah i like it from the 1st onwards, before that it's a write off.
     
  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    About 5 hours back [​IMG]
     
    #265 Sandy, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Is that the vibe tapping you on the shoulder?
    let it be said that this change has come from virtually nothing....
    I remember when we were worried about it only being just cold enough and a small net gain...
     
    #266 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Meh 5 hours. If you said it 5 days back, I would make you a gold star [​IMG]

    Agree Donza - unexpected upgrade from the models...first time this season??
     
    #267 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Yeah...its almost too goot to be true...
    seriously though kudos to you...you did mark this change down back in rowdy thread number one ...i thought it was vanilla SW until EC came on board with those uppers.
    Funny remember GFS was progging the mother of all ECL's
    and what does it look like we are going to get...a deep low....just 500km south
     
    #268 Donza, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Following on where CC left off above...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    It doesn't matter, it's the pressure gradient remember [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #269 Stratus, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    You can't call it an upgrade until it happens. Plenty of time for it to back pedal. IMO.
     
    #270 Claude Cat, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Thats just being a plain negative nancy.
     
    #271 TJ, Jul 28, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    [​IMG] Exactly. Hasnt happened yet and everyones back slapping.
     
    #272 The Plowking, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    MLAPS has a potential ridging issue.
     
  24. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    BOM has only 'scattered snow showers' for Sunday. Nice and cold though with -2
    Weatherzone is more bullish with 10-20cm.

    Thoughts?
     
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    GFS showing less pre-frontal IMO
     
  26. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Bom still going for a 3 for moisture in NSW 11-20mm or cm from 9am saturday morning when we should have the colder air arriving
     
    #276 loweee, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    There seems to be a bit of a low in here this morning after a high ridged in yestrday afternoon!!
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    EC is still holding its shape strong.
    GFS is loving it.
    LAPS has the ridge...yet at 72 hours seems strangely similar to GFS.
     
    #278 Donza, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    i don't like the BOM forecast
     
  30. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    IMO - The BOM are usually pretty vague, "Snow showers" can still mean a dump! Has happened many times before!
     
  31. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    What's the chance of LAPS being right over the majority which are now saying a good moderate fall of snow?
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Wait till you see the WZ one in 40mins....or so
     
    #282 Donza, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    How you mean? Re Saturday?...
     
    #283 Donza, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Ok, I have done my daily morning rounds of the charts..
    EC, LAPS & GFS.

    IMO

    Thursday: Generally less rain than earlier expected - good
    Friday: Rain, but I think a possibility of some snow up high (say 1800m later in the day)
    Saturday is interesting: I think there's a chance of snow down to 1500m - while 540 line just reaches Victoria, the 850mb temps look favourable - perhaps 10 cm snow IF it works out.
    Sunday - Monday: IMO both GFS and EC have down graded the system but still ok. Cold, perhaps 25cm snow.
     
  35. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Not bad - thanks cat. I'll be posting from the hills Saturday to Tuesday afternoon when I head back to Sydney
     
  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    Just out of interest, the maximum topographic heights inside the ACCESS models over the Australian Alps are:

    ACCESS-G : 700 metres (~80 km resolution)
    ACCESS-R : 1140 metres (~37.5 km resolution)
    ACCESS-A : 1400 metres (~11.0 km resolution)

    You can imagine that this has a huge effect on predicted precipitation in the Alps, and why NWP estimates will always underpredict rain/snow fall...

    ..which is why you need an experienced forecaster.
     
    #286 Rush, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    This mornings updates:

    ACCESS-G is now synoptically in-sync with ECMWF. The timing of the 0 degrees 850 hPa temps hasn't changed (i.e. around Saturday 31st July 1800 GMT)..however the cold pool is much cooler, 850 hPa temps of -2 to -4 predicted into Monday.

    More precipitation too, predictions of the order of 20 mm from 31st July 1800 GMT to Monday 2nd August 00 GMT.

    ECMWF ensemble 'predicted snowfall' now shows better probabilities of snow.

    IMO the big factor is how far south the pre-frontal rain band comes on Friday and Saturday.

    I'm almost getting optimistic.
     
  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    WOW - PG's actually getting optimistic [​IMG]

    Well Weatherzone have upped the ante - now 'predicting' 20 to 40cm for Sunday and 10 to 20cm for Monday with low freezing levels [​IMG]
     
    #288 FourSquare04, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: July 25 - August 3rd (2)

    TOOT TOOT!

    Sat
    Jul 31 Rain tending to snow. Windy 80% 2-5cm 1500 Strong NW/W Poor

    Sun
    Aug 01 Colder. Windier. Snow showers 90% 20-40cm 1000 Strong W/SW Poor

    Mon
    Aug 02 Wind and snow showers 80% 10-20cm 1000 Fresh S/SW Poor

    Tue
    Aug 03 Wind and snow showers clearing 70% 2-5cm 1200 Fresh SW/W Improving
     
  40. Snow Happy

    Snow Happy Hard Yards

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    My prediction from 4 days ago still stands... + 1 day
     
    #290 Snow Happy, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #291 Donza, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    From what I can tell of the latest update & from observations on the ground at Smiggs...... NOGAPS has been spot on the money about these next 3 days for about a week now.

    I don't expect much rain at all out of this system ....... & not before Sunday for snow.

    IMHO.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS has backed off on this arvos run...
    by a fair way...
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's still not the worst, IMO. 25cm on the basis of this run..
    We've got to get over the oscillation of despair and delight every 6 hour GFS run...
     
    #294 Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Fair play but some of us were daring to think we'd get 40cm by Tuesday
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Oh have my oscillations to EC...GFS is bemusement sometimes..
    over on WZ Blizz put the downgrade down to a flat LWT on GFS.
    Yet he said BOM has a bullish LWT.
    Hmm.

    Wait for the Euros.
     
    #296 Donza, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Could downgrade more judging by the lack of moisture today and progged tomorrow
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is still ok for the 1st, IMO
    [​IMG]
    Not nearly as cold as before though and of course there's no indication of the moisture levels.
     
    #298 Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    A little concerned about higher pressure moving in a bit too quick and overall moisture levels limiting the total amount of snow. I still think most if not all resorts will do well out of this front, just not well enough for a major change to the current situation. Basically it looks to me like the kind of system thats all about the freshies (cold, dry and windblown) but does not do a lot to build a base which is obviosuly whats really needed.

    However that ECM chart above is a very nice set up. Not much needs to change to that scenario to give us the real start to the season we've all been waiting for, particularly as a follow up front on Wednesday looks likely to add a bit more to the cover as well.

    Of course that is all IMO only!
     
  50. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    Well so far things have been better then i had thought lots less rain then predicted till now hopefully meaning we will come out on top. Sat/Sun and Mon the first of intrest snow wise but is very much up in the air in refernce to amounts of white vs clear but GFS are hinting at a cut off setup which IMO will bring more snow then hoped. For Buller im going consevative 20cm after some rain 10-15mm Saturday. Then follow up Wed/thurs will will deliver a top but i supose this is for the other thread i think still alot of change to happen over the next day or so i think once this current tropical trough is out of the way charts will get there act together for a more clearer picture [​IMG]
     
    #300 Cliff-jumper_2000, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013