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Predictions: July 25 - August 2nd (2)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.

  1. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Well, there are a few certainties we can all cling to for the mean time. First, this really is only the second "real" complex low pressure system we have seen this winter so far to push up, and that in itself is a god damn tragedy!!! BUT, the good news is, being quite large and complex, the embedded cells and associated fronts have plenty of potential to unfold better than progged, due to the unpredictable nature of clusters of low pressure cells and cold pools within a large area of low pressure. Also, there should be quite reasonable amounts of moisture left lingering in the atmosphere from the double toughs and weak sat system, thus potentially being sucked into and used by each cell and progged to move thru Sun-Wed. AND, the cold pool the 850 charts have progged to spew up in a hurry early sunday morning, will in my view, drop the freezing level to around 700 metres at best, which will mean accumulation at the 1500-200m level should be rather rapid, given the snow should be quite dry, and persist for several days mind you. PLUS, in the wake of the intial LPS, I think air mass and fetch will be unstable enough to maintain decent accumulations into Monday and Monday night, with potentiial moisture feeds from the progged cut off just off the coast of Eden. SO, to summarise, we have plenty to be upbeat about, cause geez, its been a shite of season, and without snowmaking it could be the worst in years, but we have not seen a system thus yet that has the potential to deliver extended days of decent accumulation. best case senarios could surprise many, and I am feeling that the embedded cells are going to deliver more than expected. Sunday night will be dope in my view, and Wednesdays front just needs to peak at the right time before the trailing high does its thing, and we should see another 10-20cm. So keep the faith out there my friends, in a bleak season, we may look back to this coming week as on of the better snow weeks. Sad, I know, but I think its gunna puke hard at times and surprise lots.

    IMO
     
  2. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I meant 1500-2000m level, sorry, coopers pale ale in one hand and typing fast don't really mix! [​IMG]
     
    #302 snowblowa, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    IMO
    25 mm of rain (we've already had 14 mm so far)
    followed by cold air and snow
    looking at it atm
    there could be 20-50 cm between Saturday and Monday
     
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    All models now really agree on the timing of the main front, overnight Saturday. Though, the snow level is looking to be boderline even before the main front hits, so we could be in for a suprise before hand.

    9PM GFS has a downgrade on moisture for Sunday / Monday. Pressure I imagine being the main culprit.

    Still a 20cm system for most resorts IMO, and a set up that looks fantastic...MUCH better then what was being predicted earlier this week thats for sure.

    Really depending on how much the low strenghtens in the tasman, its a set up that could easily see more then 20cm. Just a hard one to call.

    [​IMG]
     
    #304 Stratus, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good Post but break it up. I have a headache!
     
    #305 The Plowking, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #306 The Plowking, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I say well played sir...great post..
    I gotta agree with you on the snowlevel increasing accumulations...
    actually agree with you on alot of things..this system, being based around a "bombing" low in bass strait has crazy potential to draw up moisture and wrap it
     
    #307 Donza, Jul 29, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  8. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Heh heh, sorry plowking, yeah I got so caught up blurting my thoughts out I forgot to break it up a bit! That's what a half decent weather event will do in a terrible season will do to ya.........geez, think of all the decent skiers and boarders out there sittin at home waiting for the steep shite to be covered so we can get out there and rip it to shreds?? Must be hurting the resorts cash flow i reckon.....

    Anyway, back on topic, to me, on a basic level, this is a low full of lows, and each mini cell is dynamic and developing each hour, and with some luck, they will continue the trend of the last few days and intensify further, draw in moisture, and peak at just the right time for their full potential to be realised, which is significant i reckon........the crazy thing is, lows strengthen and weeken on their own accord, but if the atmoshere allows the pressure depressions to position themselves in the right places, ie low centred between NE Tas and our hills, with NE moving unstable cold air from trailing high rotation, and NW moving moisture feed spiraling out of the low being drawn from bass straight and south tasman, if the low is in the perfect position, we will have a COLD, MOIST NW feed at lowish pressure....................the perfect recipe for DUMPSVILLE BABY. AND THAT'S MY POINT!!!

    The set up could potentially unfold that way for Sunday at least, followed by cold SW stream to hook Buller and BawBaw up. Weather is always based on potential, given ceratin air temp, moisture, pressure and system positions, and we finally have a system with that kinda "potential". Let the begin I say. Oh yeah, and weather is all about patterns, and the pattern for this system has been deeper complexity, and greater potential with consistent upgrades on all fronts- air temp, moisture, duration and accumulations........ Peace all.........live, love, ski (and board). ;D
     
  9. tbnext

    tbnext One of Us

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    I like it but a bit wordy.Work makes me concentrate, the net is an escape [​IMG]

    Im there Sat-Mon (Perisher). I need to decide which skis to cart on tube-carvers or mid fat, two pairs too hard.

    Yeah yeah off topic.
     
    #309 tbnext, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

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    Full mountain riding by wednesday.Big snowfalls coming,roads will be jam packed with snow so take it easy.We dont need the roads shut down,we have waited two months for this.I reckon we could see a good 50+ and maybe some backyard rail jams in jindy IMO.Bring it on,its gunna be delicious.
     
  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    agreed toddler. The southerly should see it snow around Jindy and Cooma.
     
  12. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note the 5280 appearing on some charts this morning over the Alps...so 600-800m snow a possibility.
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    What I now like about this, is that GFS has moved in line with LAPS, with regards to the position the low will develop (basically in Bass Straight by the looks of things). This means it should strengthen nicely when it hits the Tasman on Monday.

    Look the position of the developing low, then predict where its going to end up and strengthen in the next 24hours.

    These charts are for 10pm Sunday night, already after a nice amount of snowfall.


    LAPS
    [​IMG]

    GFS
    [​IMG]

    NO GAPS
    [​IMG]

    We could be in for a suprise Monday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #313 Stratus, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  14. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    That chart is horny stuff. I think Monday will see similar totals to Sunday.
    ie: 30cm+ each day IMO
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Quantitative rainfall Perisher Valley
    Today (9 am/3 pm) 1
    Tonight (3 pm/9 am) 3
    Saturday (24 h from 9 am) 2
    Sunday (24 h from 9 am) 4
    @800-900metres forecast..

    I like those digits
    Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm) <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80

    This is all the NSW boms take

    personally I think they might get a nice wee fall tonight at NSW... up high....
     
  16. shaunstoddart

    shaunstoddart First Runs

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    This will go down as the one of the best falls in a long while IMO. I'm still calling 30+ for LM and Baw Baw by Monday. I'm gonna enjoy the blizzard on Sunday at LM, skiing is off so we booked again the following weekend. IMO Baw Baw and LM should have collected around 40cm by then.
     
  17. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    The way this has built and built and built in the face of some pretty dire predictions, I reckon we could have some big surprises as mentioned. IMO
    I'm very apprehensive to put a figure on it but if forecasters are saying a 30cm system for say Thredbo & Perisher, I would not be surprised to see 50cm by Tuesday.

    This thing has built and built into a system with great potential in the past few days and seems to be surprising the seasoned forecasters. Only a week ago it was really looking like epic rain then a dust on dirt scenario.

    Dynamic weather as Donza would say.
     
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Ooooh i'm jiggling with excitement.

    MIGHTE WEATHERZONES SNOW CAST!

    Sat
    Jul 31 Snowfalls lowering. Windy 95% 10-20cm 1400 Strong NW/W

    Sun
    Aug 01 Windy with snow. Chance blizzard 95% 20-40cm 900 Gale W/SW

    Mon
    Aug 02 Wind and snow easing 90% 10-20cm 1000 Strong S/SW

    Tue
    Aug 03 Wind with snow showers 70% 2-5cm 1200 Fresh SW/W

    Wed
    Aug 04 Windy with snow 80% 5-10cm 1000 Fresh S/SW

    Thu
    Aug 05 Light snow clearing then sunnier 50% 2-5cm 1100 Easing S/SW

    Thats right!

    6 Day snowfall - 40cm - 95cm (from WZ)

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #318 Stratus, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO, I 'predict' that when the BOM come out with their 430 update this arvo, the B word will get a mention for Sunday, and possibly Monday....

    afaict - could this be the first system that all models have agreed on this season? It sure is nice to see some agreement between them, a little bit of reassurance goes a long way!
     
    #319 FourSquare04, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Jane's Weather Blog

     
    #320 Cuppa, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think that's a reasonable, conservative assessment from the charts I've looked at.
    A few seem to be getting carried away and this only leads to disappointment later on.
     
    #321 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the observations thread:

     
    #322 Sandy, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    from this on the 24th

    to this today

    skiing in Oz....a dramatic manic depressive ride

    IMO Claude's assessment is about where I see it...I'm thinking an overall gain of 45 cm at Spencers next Thursday with very little loss from the rain
     
    #323 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, I was thinking the same thing, although the NW moisture might be too far advanced and north to impact ...
     
    #324 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    The vic bom is optimistic about snow level for tomorrow IMO. Calling for 1400m [​IMG]
     
    #325 h2oskier, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    First of the afternoon charts is through. LAPS doesn't see the cold air through until early Sunday morning, IMO
    It still seems like a great southerly system, especially Monday - Baw Baw and Buller should do great, but I'm wondering what the penetration will be for more northern resorts.
     
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be more snow out on the Monaro plains than in the NSW resorts.
     
    #327 Snow Blowey, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    LAPS doesn't seem to agree with this, IMO See my email above.
    It shows 850mb temps around 2C at 10am Saturday, and between 0-2 later in the afternoon.
    1400 = 850mb temp of zero (IIRC), so I would think 1800 might be more on the mark if we use LAPS.
     
    #328 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Looks like Pete Frog Taylor is going for 40-50 cm for the front. He is
    never far off the mark but that's 'in my opinion' of course...
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    MLAPS (no surprise) is alignment with LAPS. Interesting that MLAPS, IMO shows the initial greatest falls in east gibbsland, IMO.
     
    #330 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    1400m was in the forecast issued this morning. Afternoon update isn't too far away.
     
    #331 Cuppa, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    And 3pm GFS run is in agreement with LAPS & MLAPS.
    IMO
     
    #332 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    850mb is more like 1600m IMO.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
     
    #334 Donza, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    posted without words for sheer beauty.
    IMO
     
  36. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    Even the BOM is going for 17-30cms on Sat/Sun So 20-40cms leaning on 30-40+ because of nice orographic effect. And keep your eye on Monday for a possible surprise. Not beyond the realms of 50+ cms from this event in some locations and looks like more moisture on Monday than originally suspected....
     
  37. roystein

    roystein Hard Yards

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    re: the Bom 4 dayer: in my only 2nd season of following aussie snow/weather, after being a surf/weather nut for a good 7 or 8 years, that chart is da bomb.
     
  38. Wizard!

    Wizard! One of Us

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    IMO
     
    #338 Wizard!, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] Goodness me its Spiceman Returns
     
    #339 The Plowking, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Indeed - Hello Spiceman! Good to see you are still alive
     
    #340 FourSquare04, Jul 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep - when Spiceman dips his toe in and says 50+ is not out of the question I'm getting all Big Kev. ( Sorry Sandy )

    I just cleared Mon and Tues calendars next week.
     
  42. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Newsflash from WeatherZone.
    Snowy blast on the way
    17:25 EST The resorts can expect a snowy week ahead, with blizzard conditions expected this weekend and as much as 50 to 100cm of snow in the next seven days

    In their opinion
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    LAPS showing the cold air hitting the Alps around 4am tomorrow morning. Looks like it's going to be very windy.
    Both LAPS and GFS have slightly reduced precipitation, IMO, seems to be projecting at 25mm / 25cm over the rights spots. I can imagine, Baw Baw will do a lot better than that.
     
  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    IMO 30cm - 40cm for VIC, taking into account lifting.

    Up to 60cm for NSW, most of it on Monday.
     
  45. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This mornings weather-zone snowfall commentary team (person) going for 35cm - 70cm for this first system this weekend.
     
  46. choc

    choc One of Us

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    NSW BoM have downgraded the moisture a fair bit.
     
  47. BH

    BH One of Us

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    hmmm... Certainly not as good as it was yesterday and Monday may well be a bit warmer with the 540 line/blob departing the scene rather quickly on Monday.
     
  48. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    NSW BOM are now going for 13-25cms until Tuesday morning, no IMO here...

    Sounds about right to me IMO
     
  49. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    I predict there may be an upgrade tomorrow
     
  50. dogski

    dogski Hard Yards

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    I dunno what bom charts you guys are looking at because this mornings run still looks the goods to me.Orographic lift will come into play tommorrow