Predictions: July 25 - August 2nd (2)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 24, 2010.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'd double that.for Perisher..cause of the altitude its progged to fall and the windstrength we are forecast to get
    Personally I think 25 cm would be a 24 hour conservative
     
    #351 Donza, Jul 31, 2010
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  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I agree, the lifting should be very nice tonight and tomorrow morning.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    1pm LAPS has 540 line all the way to QLD / NSW border for monday morning. There's going to be some snow quite far north.
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah and with a southerly wind with a hint nof east in it and thickness of 5360 and under i'd say we'll get some snow in some strange spots in NSW Monday night
    Its been ages since we've had snow near Wollongong
     
    #354 Donza, Jul 31, 2010
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has an ECL developing on Monday now.
     
  6. Charlie10

    Charlie10 First Runs

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    ok CC, been following these forums for years and finally posting...
    very very excited about predictions but can you please explain what developing ECL means.
     
  7. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Interesting that there is not, a downgrade in fact... with this afternoons update

    8-20cms if you want to believe the BOM's latest forecast from 3:35pm this afternoon.

    IMO I think that's a bit low! Yes I am saying that! IMO

    LAPS has downgrading the amount of moisture to hit NSW resorts though which is in-line with the BOM.

    Donza can fill me in on EC

    I'll have a look at GFS later.
     
    #357 skiflat, Jul 31, 2010
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  8. dogski

    dogski Hard Yards

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    The way the charts have been chopping and changing over the last 4days IMO there will be an upgrade overnight.
     
  9. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    East Coast Low. Don't worry Charlie10 it took me ages to figure it out too. They are lows which form off the south-eastern coast of Australia in the Tasman Sea. Mostly on my side of the Tasman (NZ) we hate 'em!
     
    #359 ScottGN, Jul 31, 2010
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  10. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit more of a downgrade this afternoon IMO. ECL moving east much faster than suggested by earlier forecasts. And pressure not as low as forecast two days ago. I think that is why the BOM have backed off the precipitation forecasts.

    Still think we are good for 30cm between now and wednesday. Hopefully wrong and we get more.
     
  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    hope your right dogski?? imo its not as good as it looked and the big fat high trying
    to spoil the party again.

    hopefully a turn for the better overnight?
     
  12. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dunno if NSW bom have changed their tune, but Vic bom still sounding pretty good for snow IMO. They don't give amounts, but the wording has pretty much stayed the same.
     
  13. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I have always had some concerns about this first system pushing a bit further south and not delivering the large totals some are expecting. It looks to have peaked a little to far west IMO to gain the best of the moisture and I don't know if this why BOM NSW are calling for some smaller totals.
    This time next week will be a better picture in the mountains and we need it.
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The "first" cold front(Saturday) was never supposed to provide the goods. It's the cloud mass entering western Victoria now, plus the swirl of cloud passing south of of Adelaide in the next 6 hours that is expected to produce something. It remains to be seen if it does, but it's Sunday that is the key here, IMO.
     
    #364 Sandy, Jul 31, 2010
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  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's interesting to see the 'seasoned' forecasters, well some of them at least, keeping their distance and waiting and watching on this set of systems. That sort of thing makes me nervous.
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    ANYTHING makes you nervous!!!! [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #366 Sandy, Jul 31, 2010
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  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey that's not true! I went out on a big call and got it wrong early in the season, and since then ive kept a lower profile, mainly because the models and charts i use for my predictions werent giving me good signs, and i misread them/was too optimistic on the system i went hard on.

    When you take my baited posts like that Sandy it only confirms you are nervous yourself, otherwise id get hit back with weather-related talk or the dreaded 'keep on topic'.
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] boy, YOU sure do take the bait!!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #368 Sandy, Jul 31, 2010
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GO Tigers!

    [​IMG]
     
    #369 Vermillion, Jul 31, 2010
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  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What do I have to be nervous about??? Whether it snows or not, I still can't ski it if I'm in Japan!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #370 Sandy, Jul 31, 2010
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  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Better? This system is still looking fan-blardy-tastic IMO, and should be the biggest one this season. Remember this system first looked like 40mm or so of rain followed by 20cm of snow. How things have changed.

    The synoptic is just fantastic, I don't see what all the disappointment is about. Too many people with a typical unrealistically high expectation.

    This is a solid 30cm system with the potential for a lot more, IMO.
     
    #371 Stratus, Jul 31, 2010
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ### Deleted off topic ###

    and i'm nervous as...
    the sat pic, the synoptic...its all a thing of beauty
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    One thing, the timing of the front is fantastic...happening in the night...midnight
     
  24. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I am still nervous about the rotation of the low pushing allot of moisture south. Would like to see the total system pushing a bit further north but the totals are going to be good by 2010 standards IMO.
    Hopefully all concerns are overcome overnight. One thing is for sure it is going to be plenty cold.
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looking at the sat pic I wouldn't be surprised to see 20cm overnight..
    crazy...lovely and thick
     
  26. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    Yeah still alive, just extremely busy these days as one would expect with a bunch of teenagers roaming around my household. But yeah it has been a while I should try and get in here more often. I always liked the weather forum. Sandy how long you been moderating this forum now?? must be 10-12 years... Hope the snow gods bless you all with what you need.
     
    #376 Spiceman, Aug 1, 2010
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  27. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Sat pic looks great.

    In my opinion...

    Winds are still NW'ly, and should tend Westerly later today, 20cm for all resorts.

    Winds will Shift SW'ly early tomorrow morning, with another 20cm for most resorts, potentially more for Baw Baw / LM / Buller.

    Oh, and its going to get very cold!!
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    11 years moderating now!!!

    Still some good cloud heading for the hills.... let's hope there's more than expected [​IMG]
     
    #378 Sandy, Aug 1, 2010
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  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    How good is the Sat pic looking eh! NSW BOM are calling for NW winds for most of today, tending SW later this afternoon, so Perisher and Thredbo will do quite well all day today (and Hotham & Falls too)....however IMO the NSW BOM (who are still sticking with the lower precip levels) are fence sitting for the time being as I don't think they quite know exactly what's going to happen over the next 48 hrs! Going by the latest Sat Pic, surely we will see more than 20cm between now and this time tomorrow morning???!
    I predict we will see at least 30cm on the ground by this time tomorrow morning but more is not out of the question.....
    And then tomorrow....things could get very interesting if that low blows up which at this stage is looking quite possible.....
     
    #379 FourSquare04, Aug 1, 2010
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    NSW BOM ain't fence sitting with their forecast wording...thats been ramped up tonight..
    I wouldn't worry too much about the moisture levels they progging IMO.
    It seems (on weekends) they are a bit more blase.
    considering Perisher has already got 10cm off the pre-system
     
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This system is really delivering thanks to the temps. Usually it would be rain with a warm NW feed, but the temps have been forgiving and everything we've picked up so far has been an excellent bonus. [​IMG]

    I predict the real fun will start tonight when the icey SW change blasts through.
     
    #381 Stratus, Aug 1, 2010
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  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    how much do you 'predict' will roughly fall today afaict? 20cm? maybe more?

    IMO a ballpark figure of 30cm give or take depending on the resort should be on the money [​IMG]
     
    #382 FourSquare04, Aug 1, 2010
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  33. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Out of the BBQ thread:

    Personally, I think that the blue circled cloud will only clip southern Victoria.


    But one other point.... see the jetstream cloud over WA & NT?? I think there's a 50%+ chance it will hook up with the cold air over SA & Victoria.

    Like this:

    [​IMG]
     
    #383 Sandy, Aug 1, 2010
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  34. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    If that happened Sandy that would deliver some nice figures! I dont think any charts have been suggesting this? But because the low seems to be spinning further north than the charts were predicting it could grab that cloud and bring it down. Wait and see in the next few hours
     
  35. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    This is what the BOM think for tomorrow Sandy.....

    [​IMG]

    It's a shame that the system hasn't been that strong and the pressure hasn't dropped to 1000 or below hPa.....ah well can't complain too much, still looking pretty darn tasty [​IMG]
     
    #385 FourSquare04, Aug 1, 2010
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  36. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Usually the charts never show jetstream cloud because the chart is surface level pressure.
     
    #386 Sandy, Aug 1, 2010
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  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Fore Square, I reckon at least 30cm will be recorded by the Falls/Hotham tomorrow morning. We still have the main cold front to hit us tonight!
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy i believe looking at sat pics that the jetstream is being tapped into already, however how far south it will dump it im not sure. A good sounding in that area would be perfect [​IMG]
     
    #388 Vermillion, Aug 1, 2010
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  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well this is what MLAPS is now suggesting may happen...just LOOK at the latest MLAPS for Monday!

    NSW looking to cop another 30cms from the wrap of the low in the Tasman.

    That is certainly an epic set up for them [​IMG].
     
    #389 Stratus, Aug 1, 2010
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  40. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    phoar incoming from the sea out to the west of Tasmania ,
    pukeology , only need the trajectory to be right [​IMG]
    Big Kev Alert.
     
    #390 skimax, Aug 1, 2010
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM have issued flood warnings for East Gippsland where they have predicted falls between 50 & 70mm (and up to 100mm) for Monday.
    Baw Baw should cop a caning.
     
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy what do you think about the jetstream influence now? Looks goods to me.
     
  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not convinced with its direct influence, but it's certainly been feeding moisture into the eastern side of the low, where it's been forming cloud and wrapping back around the western flank.
     
    #393 Sandy, Aug 2, 2010
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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looking this morning it's moved away a little bit from yesterday, i think the tap is being turned off.

    Weird period ahead, but thats in the 4-7th thread.
     
  45. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Could get a SE feed from this which should see allot of snow in Jindy. Will also do well in Thredbo in the next 24 hrs IMO.
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah Jindy brown mountain will get smashed IMO in a few hours.
     
    #396 Donza, Aug 2, 2010
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  47. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup. There's a big blob headed up from the coast at the moment. Outlooker, you may get a chance to update that photo of yours this afternoon.
     
  48. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I wish I was ther but got those from the Perisher Mid Centre Facebook page.
    http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/page...110759642301245
    Just spoke to someone down there and it is coming down again. A bit heavy but good skiing on the steeps and chairs are on wind hold. Eyre T-Bar is open so Mt P is skiable.
    Back on Topic: SE flow should continue for a few hours and another 10 20 is possible IMO.
     
    #398 Outlooker, Aug 2, 2010
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  49. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    I bet you are now glad you cleared your calendar.... I know Perisher, have got over 60cms from this and Charlottes, Thredbo over 70cms up high... I think thredders got over 15cms today. I had a feeling that Monday would be a little surprise as the charts looked good for some decent falls. Now everyone will be happy and looking for more. I genuinely thought 30-40cms was a shew in with a couple of areas getting a little more so it looks like this system was on the money.

    Good to see Selwyn getting over the half century as well.
     
    #399 Spiceman, Aug 2, 2010
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  50. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    I think it was all good Sandy and excited to see some people getting excited now about some good skiing prospects for the next month or so....
     
    #400 Spiceman, Aug 2, 2010
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