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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 27, 2015.
A fairly weak system, but could still deliver 10-15cm later this week. IMO
Noticed this as well this morning, but it looks a bit warm. The precip may be ahead of the cold air, but looks good if it is cold enough.
Looks plenty cold on EC and GFS IMO.
500hPa temps of -25 or better and 850 hPa temps of 0 or better.
another good one for us
Pressure looks high.
Temps look OK, IMO.
Nice little top up with decent temps imo
Nice enough for weekend warriors like me
ghee that looks more than 10-15
Hopefully a good ol mid winter frontal system
BOM has a double tap lining up, yr.no sees up to 10cm, but AccessG not buying in at all until the Saturday (the next system).
looks like the week of the Clippers.
I always thought AccessG was the BOM forecast, while the 2 main others were GFS & EC?
AccessG is the BOM's version of the UKmet model, with, I gather, subtle variations.
However, when doing their forecasts they will look at a fair few models including EC and GFS and AccessG/R etc
Given we know that EC consistently has higher accuracy scores, there's little wonder the BOM 4 day forecast charts are very similar to EC.
GFS looks tasty. I'm feeling generous. 15-20 cms
Will be @ BB. Predict skiing in fresh, dry conditions on Friday morning. Maybe chains needed to get off mountain? Maybe not.
Anytime it snows on that road, you will need chains.
Might be a bit marginal at Baw Baw Thursday evening, but should snow early am Friday before clearing somewhat IMO
Not much in this one IMO - maybe only 10cm at best (clipper front). Cold enough though. Better than having some really warm days before Monday's front.
Bom 4 day map
Pushing a bit more then this morning's runs.
Could be a sneaky 20
I am thinking 10 with a maybe 15 in some places , be nice if it was more ( I suppose that is always nice ).
Come on this system needs a name ?/ #shazza #clipper #dragon1 # southerly kisser
Stay on topic IMO
Interesting virtually stationary trough over central Australia.
what does that mean for us @Donza ? sorry, noob weather question
Perhaps moisture injection and prevent the high from ridging in and squashing the whole thing?
I'm a weather nunce as well but love reading what you guys predict - I saw a simulation of what might happen on the Weather Channel this morning and it showed this massive moisture injection from Central Australia getting sucked into cold air over SE Aus this weekend. Looks good if it happens
Yeah , as Mick said. It allows a front to push up into area of low pressure , rather than being pushed down by a ridge.
It also breaks up the Dominating high belt over Australia.
Its pretty much why (along with the High centred SW of perth) we should get front after front next week , even though they are quite weak
Set up for the conveyor belt.
Is 10-20 cm at Hotham And Falls a fair call over Thursday night / Friday morning?
Meh. Wrong resort.
I agree with CC. 5-10.
Next system looks more interesting.
meh - have child in tow.
What i have to look forward too...
Still, plenty protected spots at Hotham.
Yeah same at Perisher , I don't mind wind as long as its not wind hold wind.
Go Smiggins with a sneaky drop to interceptor.
Looks like friday morning might see 5-10cm overnight to freshen it all op. IMO
Don't tell #Barry about Baw Baw we might get more snow
Stay on topic.
Solid lineup for the next week at least.
ghee AXS-R has bumped the moisture up
It's not snowing until Sunday except the peaks according to the GFS website....
Saturday looks ok on GFS (different thread)
Gentle dig was gentle...
BOM (Vic) suggesting above 1200 metres for the next few days lowering when the colder air/fronts hits Sunday into Monday to 1000 then 800 respectively. Just a matter how much moisture gets to the north east and then into the Snowies.