Predictions Predictions July 30-31st system

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 27, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A fairly weak system, but could still deliver 10-15cm later this week. IMO


    [​IMG]
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  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Noticed this as well this morning, but it looks a bit warm. The precip may be ahead of the cold air, but looks good if it is cold enough.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks plenty cold on EC and GFS IMO.
    500hPa temps of -25 or better and 850 hPa temps of 0 or better.
     
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  4. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    another good one for us
     
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  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure looks high.
     
  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temps look OK, IMO.
     
  7. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Nice little top up with decent temps imo
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Nice enough for weekend warriors like me
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ghee that looks more than 10-15
    double toucher
    (perisher)
     
  11. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Hopefully a good ol mid winter frontal system
     
  12. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    BOM has a double tap lining up, yr.no sees up to 10cm, but AccessG not buying in at all until the Saturday (the next system).
     
  13. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    looks like the week of the Clippers.
     
  14. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I always thought AccessG was the BOM forecast, while the 2 main others were GFS & EC?
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AccessG is the BOM's version of the UKmet model, with, I gather, subtle variations.
    However, when doing their forecasts they will look at a fair few models including EC and GFS and AccessG/R etc
    Given we know that EC consistently has higher accuracy scores, there's little wonder the BOM 4 day forecast charts are very similar to EC.
     
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  16. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks tasty. I'm feeling generous. 15-20 cms

    [​IMG]
     
  17. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be @ BB. Predict skiing in fresh, dry conditions on Friday morning. Maybe chains needed to get off mountain? Maybe not.
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Anytime it snows on that road, you will need chains.
    Might be a bit marginal at Baw Baw Thursday evening, but should snow early am Friday before clearing somewhat IMO
     
  19. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Not much in this one IMO - maybe only 10cm at best (clipper front). Cold enough though. Better than having some really warm days before Monday's front.
     
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  20. Martyr

    Martyr Hard Yards

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    Bom 4 day map
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pushing a bit more then this morning's runs.
    Could be a sneaky 20
     
  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    I am thinking 10 with a maybe 15 in some places , be nice if it was more ( I suppose that is always nice ).
     
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  23. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come on this system needs a name ?/ #shazza #clipper #dragon1 # southerly kisser
    Stay on topic IMO
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Interesting virtually stationary trough over central Australia.
    Likes
     
  26. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    what does that mean for us @Donza ? sorry, noob weather question
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps moisture injection and prevent the high from ridging in and squashing the whole thing?
     
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  28. gaz35

    gaz35 One of Us

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    I'm a weather nunce as well but love reading what you guys predict - I saw a simulation of what might happen on the Weather Channel this morning and it showed this massive moisture injection from Central Australia getting sucked into cold air over SE Aus this weekend. Looks good if it happens
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah , as Mick said. It allows a front to push up into area of low pressure , rather than being pushed down by a ridge.
    It also breaks up the Dominating high belt over Australia.
     
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its pretty much why (along with the High centred SW of perth) we should get front after front next week , even though they are quite weak
     
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  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Set up for the conveyor belt.
     
  32. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Is 10-20 cm at Hotham And Falls a fair call over Thursday night / Friday morning?
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 5-10cm.
     
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looks windy.
    Not happy.
     
  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meh. Wrong resort.
    I agree with CC. 5-10.
    Next system looks more interesting.
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    meh - have child in tow.
     
  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What i have to look forward too...
    Still, plenty protected spots at Hotham.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah same at Perisher , I don't mind wind as long as its not wind hold wind.
     
  39. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Go Smiggins with a sneaky drop to interceptor.
    Looks like friday morning might see 5-10cm overnight to freshen it all op. IMO
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    shhhhhhhhhhhhusssssssssh.
     
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  41. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Don't tell #Barry about Baw Baw we might get more snow :D
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solid lineup for the next week at least.
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ghee AXS-R has bumped the moisture up
     
  45. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    For tonight?
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not snowing until Sunday except the peaks according to the GFS website....
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Saturday looks ok on GFS (different thread)
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gentle dig was gentle...
     
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  49. DavidL

    DavidL First Runs

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    BOM (Vic) suggesting above 1200 metres for the next few days lowering when the colder air/fronts hits Sunday into Monday to 1000 then 800 respectively. Just a matter how much moisture gets to the north east and then into the Snowies.