Surprised there isn't a thread for this so I'll start one (nervously clears throat...) Cold (not very) front now reaching Perth is predicted by BoM to carry on across the wide brown land as an isolated low before hooking up with the succeeding southern front just before it reaches the mountains (Thursday?), where it looks like it will deliver something. Needs to get colder. Is this southern hookup something to watch? Over to you, experts...
Am no expert but we need a delivery and it looked promising on the news weather reports tonight. Will have a look at Jane's weather...
Nothing much posted about it, because there's nothing much to get excited about. IMO EC looks, very weak, warm. GFS: possibly worse.
Looks ok only up high - BoM says above 1700-1900m in NSW. There's nothing of any consequence at lower levels to wash away, so will do nothing bad or good unless you are into ski touring on the main range.
Warm uppers. Warm 850's. And a wandering cold pool that really isn't very cold. With quite a bit of moisture, lasting from early Friday to early Sat. I'm seeing the possibility of quite a significant rain event.
At this stage I think it mostly misses the alps IMO. NSW might get a bit of rain. So my guess is 5-10mm rain, with a remote chance of snow right up high. What's more of a worry is the amount of rain the NSW coast will get again on Sunday afternoon.
Another soaking for inland N.S.W. Can't see much good out of this one at all. Farmers have probably had enough for a while now.
Not sure where you are getting those figures, but that plot shows 5-10mm for NSW snowfields. So less than half an inch.
It's there on EC as well. Looks like it's showing falls between 50-100mm on the southern NSW coast (12Z run)
I see this as two separate lows. An inland low coming down from Qld. and an E.C.L. developing as this one starts to decay.
The trouble is anything you're possibly going to get up high on the 17th will be washed away on the 19th. IMO
BoM for the Snowies Thursday 16 June Partly cloudy. Areas of fog and frost in the southeast in the early morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower about the alpine peaks in the evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of snow Below 5% at 1800m 0% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Friday 17 June Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain in the west, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening. Chance of snow 30% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Saturday 18 June Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Light winds. Chance of snow 30% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m
EC has fallen in line with AXS Before bombing off Eden on the 20th While GFS has it tracking across southern QLD and intensifying to an ECL as it tracks south.
That's 19th to 22nd isn't it, CC. I'm seeing more rain in the Alpine Region 17th to 19th. Around 25mm.
Pretty sure most would be very happy with another 100mm. Sowing is done and harvest is along way off. Recent rain hasn't resulted in any significant runoff to get rivers flowing and get the major water supplies full. Most are below 20%.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-...or-east-coast-low/7512374?WT.ac=statenews_nsw East coast low: Bureau of Meteorology on watch for second damaging weather system in Queensland, NSW Updated 42 minutes ago Bureau of Meteorology forecasters are on watch for yet another east coast low expected to form this weekend, but say it is still too early to predict its impact. It follows this month's devastating east coast low that wreaked havoc from Queensland to Tasmania. The Bureau's National Operations Centre director Dr Andrew Tupper said the situation would be clearer in the coming days. "There is still uncertainty about the timing and extent of the impacts, but we have increasing confidence in a widespread rainfall event developing over southern and eastern Queensland and inland-northern New South Wales," Dr Tupper said. "Low pressure systems like this low can produce very heavy rainfall, damaging winds and dangerous surf conditions and residents should keep an eye on local forecasts and warnings as the situation evolves." He said it was not unusual for east coast lows to develop in such quick succession. "On average, the eastern seaboard sees seven significant east coast lows each year and most occur between June and August," he said. "These systems are major rain producing events for the east coast of Australia." Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster James Taylor said moderate to major flooding was possible. "[It is] very difficult to give accurate rainfall totals while we are still gauging how this system will develop, but very broadly speaking we would be expecting to see at least totals in the order of 25-30mm across large parts of south eastern Queensland and north eastern New South Wales, but along the east coast south of Bowen probably at least 50mm and isolated totals of 150mm," Mr Taylor said. "Previous to the east coast low in early June, we had quite dry conditions across that part of the continent ... but the last east coast low has provided significant rainfall and we expect to see run-off occurring a lot quicker ... moderate to major flooding is possible." In a statement, the bureau said the major Australian and international computer weather models it used were in good agreement about the development of the system, but its exact location and intensity would drive the final impact. It also said its forecasters would work closely with emergency services to help them plan and prepare for potential impacts.
My mates around Wang and Yarra have had enough for the moment. Paddocks are waterlogged and need to dry out a bit. Rain on the ranges is great as it will flow directly into the lakes and rivers.
00Z EC run has the ECL running down the coast like GFS. Interesting to see how that affects the follow-up system
