Predictions Predictions - June 17-19 system

Discussion in 'Weather' started by iagreewithhim, Jun 12, 2016.

  1. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    Surprised there isn't a thread for this so I'll start one (nervously clears throat...) Cold (not very) front now reaching Perth is predicted by BoM to carry on across the wide brown land as an isolated low before hooking up with the succeeding southern front just before it reaches the mountains (Thursday?), where it looks like it will deliver something. Needs to get colder. Is this southern hookup something to watch?
    Over to you, experts...
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member
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    Am no expert but we need a delivery and it looked promising on the news weather reports tonight. Will have a look at Jane's weather...
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Nothing much posted about it, because there's nothing much to get excited about. IMO

    EC looks, very weak, warm.
    [​IMG]

    GFS: possibly worse.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Be surprised anything but a dust. Need a thread for 20-23 June really.. ER man says 2 ft lol
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Lets wait until models get some agreement for the period post the 20th before we get too excited.
     
    #5 Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2016
  6. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    Exited( as in leaving , departing)
    or excited (as in excitement) ?
     
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  7. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Looks ok only up high - BoM says above 1700-1900m in NSW. There's nothing of any consequence at lower levels to wash away, so will do nothing bad or good unless you are into ski touring on the main range.
     
  8. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Maybe a few mm of rain.
     
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    5-10cms up high is my call at the moment.
     
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  10. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Warm uppers. Warm 850's. And a wandering cold pool that really isn't very cold. With quite a bit of moisture, lasting from early Friday to early Sat. I'm seeing the possibility of quite a significant rain event.

     
  11. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Agree, models say r**n at the moment.
     
  12. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    Well Perth got quite a significant rain event, so I'm afraid you might be right.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    At this stage I think it mostly misses the alps IMO. NSW might get a bit of rain. So my guess is 5-10mm rain, with a remote chance of snow right up high.
    What's more of a worry is the amount of rain the NSW coast will get again on Sunday afternoon.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    75mm for Canberra. So looks like it does just miss to the North. :thumbs:
     
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  15. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Another soaking for inland N.S.W. Can't see much good out of this one at all. Farmers have probably had enough for a while now.
     
  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    1"-2" of r**n for the NSW snowfields isn't exactly a miss.
     
  17. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Not sure where you are getting those figures, but that plot shows 5-10mm for NSW snowfields. So less than half an inch.
     
  18. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    BOM showing 40 odd for Perisher
     
  19. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I agree
     
  20. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Well that would explain that. And I'm leaning towards the 40mm.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I wouldn't panic - yet.
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Nah its close enough for it to go to snot thats for sure. May cool 2 degrees and it could be good.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    A bit further south on 00Z run

    [​IMG]
     
  24. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    GFS loves a good ECL.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's there on EC as well. Looks like it's showing falls between 50-100mm on the southern NSW coast (12Z run)
     
  26. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I see this as two separate lows. An inland low coming down from Qld. and an E.C.L. developing as this one starts to decay.
     
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  27. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    lots of moisture, but 540 line too far south IMO (17th)

    [​IMG]
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The trouble is anything you're possibly going to get up high on the 17th will be washed away on the 19th.
    IMO
     
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  29. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    This is outside both date ranges but check out the reach on this ECL on Monday..

    [​IMG]
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This ECL looks more coastal. Definitely a lot weaker than the last one.
     
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  31. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    Correct me if I'm reading this wrong but that's one weirdly placed low is it not?

    [​IMG]
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Doesn't look like a normal progression.
     
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  33. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Models are wack!
     
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  34. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Coming down from the north. Wet and yukky.
     
  35. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Batemans Bay forecast for Monday, showers, up to 150mm. Must be bloody heavy showers.
     
  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM for the Snowies

    Thursday 16 June
    Partly cloudy. Areas of fog and frost in the southeast in the early morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower about the alpine peaks in the evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    Below 5% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Friday 17 June
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain in the west, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 18 June
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Light winds.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  37. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Farmers wouldnt mind a few mm tbh , but us graziers say keep it coming , need dam refill :D
     
  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This one right on my head.
    Just as the yard has started to dry out....
     
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  39. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  40. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Some saying ECL will be an inland event, which would be bad news.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC has fallen in line with AXS

    [​IMG]

    Before bombing off Eden on the 20th

    [​IMG]

    While GFS has it tracking across southern QLD and intensifying to an ECL as it tracks south.

     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    As a result GFS is showing less precipitation over the coast and ranges IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    That's 19th to 22nd isn't it, CC. I'm seeing more rain in the Alpine Region 17th to 19th. Around 25mm.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    No appreciable difference if I pull it back

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Pretty sure most would be very happy with another 100mm. Sowing is done and harvest is along way off. Recent rain hasn't resulted in any significant runoff to get rivers flowing and get the major water supplies full. Most are below 20%.
     
  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Sunday night is a rinse cycle, IMO.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Groce.
     
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  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-...or-east-coast-low/7512374?WT.ac=statenews_nsw

    East coast low: Bureau of Meteorology on watch for second damaging weather system in Queensland, NSW
    Updated 42 minutes ago

    [​IMG]
    Bureau of Meteorology forecasters are on watch for yet another east coast low expected to form this weekend, but say it is still too early to predict its impact.

    It follows this month's devastating east coast low that wreaked havoc from Queensland to Tasmania.

    The Bureau's National Operations Centre director Dr Andrew Tupper said the situation would be clearer in the coming days.

    "There is still uncertainty about the timing and extent of the impacts, but we have increasing confidence in a widespread rainfall event developing over southern and eastern Queensland and inland-northern New South Wales," Dr Tupper said.

    "Low pressure systems like this low can produce very heavy rainfall, damaging winds and dangerous surf conditions and residents should keep an eye on local forecasts and warnings as the situation evolves."

    He said it was not unusual for east coast lows to develop in such quick succession.

    "On average, the eastern seaboard sees seven significant east coast lows each year and most occur between June and August," he said.

    "These systems are major rain producing events for the east coast of Australia."

    Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster James Taylor said moderate to major flooding was possible.

    "[It is] very difficult to give accurate rainfall totals while we are still gauging how this system will develop, but very broadly speaking we would be expecting to see at least totals in the order of 25-30mm across large parts of south eastern Queensland and north eastern New South Wales, but along the east coast south of Bowen probably at least 50mm and isolated totals of 150mm," Mr Taylor said.

    "Previous to the east coast low in early June, we had quite dry conditions across that part of the continent ... but the last east coast low has provided significant rainfall and we expect to see run-off occurring a lot quicker ... moderate to major flooding is possible."

    In a statement, the bureau said the major Australian and international computer weather models it used were in good agreement about the development of the system, but its exact location and intensity would drive the final impact.

    It also said its forecasters would work closely with emergency services to help them plan and prepare for potential impacts.
     
  49. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    My mates around Wang and Yarra have had enough for the moment. Paddocks are waterlogged and need to dry out a bit. Rain on the ranges is great as it will flow directly into the lakes and rivers.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    00Z EC run has the ECL running down the coast like GFS.
    Interesting to see how that affects the follow-up system