BoM - Bring Your Raincoat Thursday 16 June Partly cloudy. Patchy fog near the Victorian border in the early morning. Areas of morning frost. Slight (30%) chance of a shower about the alpine peaks at night. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h. No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Chance of snow 10% at 1800m 0% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Friday 17 June Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain about the ranges, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening. Chance of snow 30% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Saturday 18 June Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Light winds. Chance of snow 20% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Sunday 19 June Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1800 metres. Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day. Chance of snow 50% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016052018&fh=6 Press play for an impressive progresssion. Ouch !
Looking at how tight those isobars get, there will be some nasty winds on SE NSW coast and Vic east coast.
The EC is chopping around with each run, but every second issue has the main low missing the alps: "But, there is a silver lining. It will depend on how close these two parts (broad trough & low centre) come to the alps. There is a high risk of heavy rain, but also the potential for hardly anything at all. The EC model has a hit from the trough over northern resorts, but the main low centre is too far to the east. Other models have a direct hit from the low." More: http://goo.gl/gvlWjA
Latest BOM has backed off on rain totals for the alps. Hopefully more snow then rain as things progress.
IMO there will be very little snow (if any) out of the ECL. Just be thankful the precipitation totals are less than originally expected.
That's very misleading because it's including the follow-up system rather than just the ECL. Look at the date range.
Latest GFS run has the low running inland before hitting the tasman further south. It means more moisture IMO
Andrew Miskelly @andrewmiskelly 4m4 minutes ago Still some uncertainty around weekend rainfall totals & positioning. Today's forecasts from ACCESS-R, GFS and ECMWF.
I'm on the coast down South of Nowra so we're either going to get far king wet or really far king wet. Tho not of the scale of the Ali Swell / ECL .
The low currently looks like crossing the coast around SydCo (Sydney/Cenco) Sunday night around high tide. If we have copped 50ml plus in the preceding 6 hours with Warragamba at capacity then it could turn nasty. Last system had some elasticity built in but with grounds still saturated and dams At capacity then its one to watch. Throw in some wind with the trees fully loaded with all the water they have stored from the last drenching and things are looking very top heavy. Will be watching this one very closely
BOM forecasts are showing the max rainfall for Sunday to be centred around the Militon/Ulladulla area - with 50-150mm listed as possible range. Looking through the forecast north and south it drops off to around the 20-80mm range - with minimal inland penetration of the rain appearing in the forecasts for PV and Cooma.
Plenty of BOM warnings up. Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall for people in the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts Issued at 9:51 am EST on Sunday 19 June 2016. Weather Situation A low pressure system over northern New South Wales is expected to move southeastwards and deepen on Sunday night and should lie just off the East Gippsland coast on Monday morning. The low will reach peak intensity over far eastern Bass Strait on Monday afternoon before moving away over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday morning. DAMAGING WINDS around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for all of East Gippsland on Monday and for Alpine parts of the Northeast forecast district on Monday afternoon. Very heavy rain which will likely lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the East Gippsland forecast district on Monday. Heavy rainfall which may also lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for parts of the North East and West and South Gippsland forecast districts on Monday. SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL For people in the Illawarra and South Coast Forecast Districts. Issued at 3:52 pm Sunday, 19 June 2016. SEVERE WEATHER ILLAWARRA-SOUTH COAST SYNOPTIC SITUATION: A low pressure system is expected to form near the Illawarra coast Sunday evening and then to deepen and move quickly south overnight. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the Illawarra and South coast districts Sunday evening through to Monday morning. The threat area is likely to contract further south with the low later tonight. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible along the coastal fringe later this evening through to the early hours of Monday. Locations which may be affected include Wollongong, Nowra, Bowral, Batemans Bay, Eden and Moruya Heads. The next warning is due to be issued by 10:55 pm. Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly. SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS For people in the Snowy Mountains and parts of the Mid North Coast, Hunter, South Coast, South West Slopes, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts. Issued at 3:54 pm Sunday, 19 June 2016. DAMAGING WINDS SOME NSW RANGES MONDAY SYNOPTIC SITUATION: A low pressure system expected to develop off the Illawarra coast tonight should move quickly south and deepen over eastern Bass Strait Monday morning. A vigorous westerly airstream is likely over New South Wales on Monday. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible over higher parts of the ranges in the south and north from Monday afternoon. Locations which may be affected include Scone, Armidale, Glen Innes, Bombala, Nimmitabel and Khancoban. The next warning is due to be issued by 10:55 pm. Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
