Predictions Predictions - June 17-19 system

Discussion in 'Weather' started by iagreewithhim, Jun 12, 2016.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM - Bring Your Raincoat

    Thursday 16 June
    Partly cloudy. Patchy fog near the Victorian border in the early morning. Areas of morning frost. Slight (30%) chance of a shower about the alpine peaks at night. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    10% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Friday 17 June
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain about the ranges, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 18 June
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Light winds.

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Sunday 19 June
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1800 metres. Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

    Chance of snow
    50% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO they are optimistic about the snow level on Sunday.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This Claude.
    We are going to get a solid working of some scale over the weekend.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  6. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Perfect weekend to stay indoors.
     
  8. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    The EC is chopping around with each run, but every second issue has the main low missing the alps:

    "But, there is a silver lining. It will depend on how close these two parts (broad trough & low centre) come to the alps. There is a high risk of heavy rain, but also the potential for hardly anything at all. The EC model has a hit from the trough over northern resorts, but the main low centre is too far to the east. Other models have a direct hit from the low."

    More: http://goo.gl/gvlWjA
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yep. Perfect example, two GFS runs 6 hours apart:
    12Z
    [​IMG]

    18Z run (latest)

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest model runs show this affecting the Alps less and less IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  11. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Latest BOM has backed off on rain totals for the alps. Hopefully more snow then rain as things progress.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO there will be very little snow (if any) out of the ECL. Just be thankful the precipitation totals are less than originally expected.
     
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  13. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    From The Canberra Times...

    [​IMG]

    Can we please get a wandering cold air pool too?
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That's very misleading because it's including the follow-up system rather than just the ECL.
    Look at the date range.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    If they wanted the BOM's representation of the ECL alone, they should have used this

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS run has the low running inland before hitting the tasman further south.
    It means more moisture IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I'm on the coast down South of Nowra so we're either going to
    get far king wet
    or really far king wet.
    Tho not of the scale of the Ali Swell / ECL .
     
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  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    So that's not too bad for the Alps all things considered.
    IMO.
     
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    amazing save if turns out to be such.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Mind you bugger all to wash away.
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Buller claiming 23cms on B Street.
     
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  24. C:'s

    C:'s Just Registered

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  25. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    The low currently looks like crossing the coast around SydCo (Sydney/Cenco) Sunday night around high tide.

    If we have copped 50ml plus in the preceding 6 hours with Warragamba at capacity then it could turn nasty.

    Last system had some elasticity built in but with grounds still saturated and dams
    At capacity then its one to watch.

    Throw in some wind with the trees fully loaded with all the water they have stored from the last drenching and things are looking very top heavy.

    Will be watching this one very closely
     
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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    BOM forecasts are showing the max rainfall for Sunday to be centred around the Militon/Ulladulla area - with 50-150mm listed as possible range. Looking through the forecast north and south it drops off to around the 20-80mm range - with minimal inland penetration of the rain appearing in the forecasts for PV and Cooma.
     
  27. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Monday could be brutal. Just saying.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Plenty of BOM warnings up.

    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall
    for people in the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 9:51 am EST on Sunday 19 June 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A low pressure system over northern New South Wales is expected to move southeastwards and deepen on Sunday night and should lie just off the East Gippsland coast on Monday morning. The low will reach peak intensity over far eastern Bass Strait on Monday afternoon before moving away over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for all of East Gippsland on Monday and for Alpine parts of the Northeast forecast district on Monday afternoon.

    Very heavy rain which will likely lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the East Gippsland forecast district on Monday. Heavy rainfall which may also lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for parts of the North East and West and South Gippsland forecast districts on Monday.

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the
    Illawarra and
    South Coast Forecast Districts.


    Issued at 3:52 pm Sunday, 19 June 2016.

    SEVERE WEATHER ILLAWARRA-SOUTH COAST

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
    A low pressure system is expected to form near the Illawarra coast Sunday evening
    and then to deepen and move quickly south overnight.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the Illawarra and
    South coast districts Sunday evening through to Monday morning. The threat area is likely to contract
    further south with the low later tonight.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h
    are possible along the coastal fringe later this evening through to the early hours of Monday.

    Locations which may be affected include Wollongong, Nowra, Bowral, Batemans Bay, Eden and Moruya Heads.

    The next warning is due to be issued by 10:55 pm.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.



    [​IMG]

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in the Snowy Mountains and parts of the Mid North Coast, Hunter, South Coast, South West Slopes, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 3:54 pm Sunday, 19 June 2016.

    DAMAGING WINDS SOME NSW RANGES MONDAY

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
    A low pressure system expected to develop off the Illawarra coast tonight should move quickly south and deepen over eastern Bass Strait Monday morning. A vigorous westerly airstream is likely over New South Wales on Monday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible over higher parts of the ranges in the south and north from Monday afternoon.

    Locations which may be affected include Scone, Armidale, Glen Innes, Bombala, Nimmitabel and Khancoban.

    The next warning is due to be issued by 10:55 pm.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.



    [​IMG]