Predictions Predictions - June 21-24th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Without any great confidence, this could be the next system worthy of consideration.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    No agreement from GFS.
    AXS is closer, but not quite there.
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Needs a fist.
     
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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    GFS suggesting another East Coast special next weekend [​IMG] !
     
  5. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Noooo!:eek:
     
  6. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    GFS loves ECL's :D
     
  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Some serious cold down there GFS doesnt think so ATM maybe out till the 23rd or 24th IMO EC has an ECL as well and it is in a sweet spot for the mountains long way out though but very interesting.
     
    #7 TomGroggon, Jun 13, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2016
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    IMO, this is very much so 'hanging in the balance' of the progression of the High over NZ next Sat-Mon. If we see it hold anchor I feel we'll see another ECL as GFS alludes. EC is suggesting it makes a move allowing for the node sweep the alps.

    The SW Pacific, and more specifically the Tasman, is currently very ECL-charged in IMO - as proven last week. SST's remain quite warm off the NSW coast.
    That said,I think GFS is a little more plausible at this stage (although I am skeptical of the severity it's suggesting). We'll see over the next 3-4 days. Still a long way out!

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC now has some alignment with GFS, alluding to an ECL.
    For me, I have low confidence at this point of much or any snow out of this system, although it should be interesting over the next few days of model runs.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Can't do any damage to nothing. I like the look of the s/w fetch though.
     
  11. kiter

    kiter Active Member

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    one is not happy wih the current prediction . Please change
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Hmmm the moisture is getting hooked from the coral sea , temps dont look the goods soooo default 4 day rule applies.
    IMO ;)
     
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  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Hmmm the moisture is getting hooked from the coral sea , temps dont look the goods soooo default 4 day rule applies.
    IMO ;)
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    This looks really poxy on the latest runs. Real poxy.
     
  15. TC

    TC Pool Room
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    Have you asked frog
    He will know
     
  16. DbSki

    DbSki Part of the Furniture
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    You're an SW regular, ask him yourself.
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I thought everyone here worshipped gornza?
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Respect his , and others , knowledge and feel for the models.
    Punter weatherman I love the biz / stick to my day job .
     
  19. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Yr loving it again .. 60cm approx for the period at Hotham :confused:
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Swell event East Coast //
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  23. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  24. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    06Z GFS suggest this slips to the 22-25th.
     
  26. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    I see a hook , with low enough temps to produce Se driven snow on the alps. Need correct position. lets see. Another couple of days.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Agreed. I am just worried this ECL will promote more of the same old blocking patterns.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS G @216 ?
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Its extrapolated from the progression of the ECL at 140 hrs.
    I like how this all comes together at 216 hrs too.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think @nfip was more referring to the reliability of AXS @ +144hrs, or lack thereof. To suggest 216 hrs is a likely/possible result is to suggest we're clutching straws here.
     
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  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I agree. But it fits a pattern. Big waves and more offshores and hopefully more snow.
     
  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes.
    I also respect that CC is across many of the models and wouldn't hang his hat on AXS G.
    I'll get moar excited when AXS R puts out the same forecast.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Well AXS R is only a few days out from the event, so it's always going to be more accurate! ;)
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I just like to see consistency across several models more than anything else.
     
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  36. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    GFS now has the ECL forming but with a different trajectory to the last mofo. Forming further south then heading in a northeasterly direction leaving a clear passage around the 22nd/ 23rd. Of course how much rain the mountains cop before that happens is another matter. Lots of weather whatever happens.
     
    #36 PMG, Jun 14, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2016
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Just to be clear, all models suggest ECL (18-20Jun) to head SW into the SO.
    EC's latest run suggests a cut off cold pool on the 23rd.
    AXS R goes whack with a nasty frontal rain event on the 23rd.
    GFS slow to update.
     
  38. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Typical thong behaviour by models this far out

    But, heartened by consistent high moisture which is half the equation
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not sure what this means, feel free to elaborate?
     
  40. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    I'm looking at the latest 12Z GFS.
     
  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    not sure moisture will be a problem at any stage this year...
     
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  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  43. mick chopps

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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Yeah plenty of blue and nodey. Gotta give it a couple of runs though before you pass full judgement. Last year when the systems were ripping through you could pick them about 2-3 weeks out as they crossed Sth America. They're not doing that so much yet this year though, rather completely disintegrating then re-forming below Sth Africa.
     
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  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Mehhhhhhh. Lots of warm leftovers there.
     
  46. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Looks like will be wet. Temps will dictate what it falls as
     
  47. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Except when it's neg 2 and not there ;)
     
  48. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Access G has been pretty accurate for temps so far and EC/yr.no have been on the money with precipitation, both good from about 4 days out. Its just guessing before then, but its fun.
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    That's a temp problem. Specifically, it's +2 when the moisture's there and that's a problem.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Both EC and GFS settling on the period 22-24 June. Looks promising this far out.


     
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