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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.
Without any great confidence, this could be the next system worthy of consideration.
No agreement from GFS.
AXS is closer, but not quite there.
Needs a fist.
GFS suggesting another East Coast special next weekend !
GFS loves ECL's
Some serious cold down there GFS doesnt think so ATM maybe out till the 23rd or 24th IMO EC has an ECL as well and it is in a sweet spot for the mountains long way out though but very interesting.
IMO, this is very much so 'hanging in the balance' of the progression of the High over NZ next Sat-Mon. If we see it hold anchor I feel we'll see another ECL as GFS alludes. EC is suggesting it makes a move allowing for the node sweep the alps.
The SW Pacific, and more specifically the Tasman, is currently very ECL-charged in IMO - as proven last week. SST's remain quite warm off the NSW coast.
That said,I think GFS is a little more plausible at this stage (although I am skeptical of the severity it's suggesting). We'll see over the next 3-4 days. Still a long way out!
EC now has some alignment with GFS, alluding to an ECL.
For me, I have low confidence at this point of much or any snow out of this system, although it should be interesting over the next few days of model runs.
Can't do any damage to nothing. I like the look of the s/w fetch though.
one is not happy wih the current prediction . Please change
Hmmm the moisture is getting hooked from the coral sea , temps dont look the goods soooo default 4 day rule applies.
This looks really poxy on the latest runs. Real poxy.
Have you asked frog
He will know
You're an SW regular, ask him yourself.
I thought everyone here worshipped gornza?
Respect his , and others , knowledge and feel for the models.
Punter weatherman I love the biz / stick to my day job .
Yr loving it again .. 60cm approx for the period at Hotham
Swell event East Coast //
Looks promising to me
Around 10pm on the map?
06Z GFS suggest this slips to the 22-25th.
I see a hook , with low enough temps to produce Se driven snow on the alps. Need correct position. lets see. Another couple of days.
Agreed. I am just worried this ECL will promote more of the same old blocking patterns.
AXS G @216 ?
Its extrapolated from the progression of the ECL at 140 hrs.
I like how this all comes together at 216 hrs too.
I think @nfip was more referring to the reliability of AXS @ +144hrs, or lack thereof. To suggest 216 hrs is a likely/possible result is to suggest we're clutching straws here.
I agree. But it fits a pattern. Big waves and more offshores and hopefully more snow.
I also respect that CC is across many of the models and wouldn't hang his hat on AXS G.
I'll get moar excited when AXS R puts out the same forecast.
Well AXS R is only a few days out from the event, so it's always going to be more accurate!
I just like to see consistency across several models more than anything else.
GFS now has the ECL forming but with a different trajectory to the last mofo. Forming further south then heading in a northeasterly direction leaving a clear passage around the 22nd/ 23rd. Of course how much rain the mountains cop before that happens is another matter. Lots of weather whatever happens.
Just to be clear, all models suggest ECL (18-20Jun) to head SW into the SO.
EC's latest run suggests a cut off cold pool on the 23rd.
AXS R goes whack with a nasty frontal rain event on the 23rd.
GFS slow to update.
Typical thong behaviour by models this far out
But, heartened by consistent high moisture which is half the equation
Not sure what this means, feel free to elaborate?
I'm looking at the latest 12Z GFS.
not sure moisture will be a problem at any stage this year...
Yeah plenty of blue and nodey. Gotta give it a couple of runs though before you pass full judgement. Last year when the systems were ripping through you could pick them about 2-3 weeks out as they crossed Sth America. They're not doing that so much yet this year though, rather completely disintegrating then re-forming below Sth Africa.
Mehhhhhhh. Lots of warm leftovers there.
Looks like will be wet. Temps will dictate what it falls as
Except when it's neg 2 and not there
Access G has been pretty accurate for temps so far and EC/yr.no have been on the money with precipitation, both good from about 4 days out. Its just guessing before then, but its fun.
That's a temp problem. Specifically, it's +2 when the moisture's there and that's a problem.
Both EC and GFS settling on the period 22-24 June. Looks promising this far out.