Predictions Predictions - June 21-24th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO you could see flurries down to 400m.
     
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  2. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    That low is bombing and feeding shit loads of moisture into this cold front
     
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  3. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    go you good thing GO
     
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  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah i think Sidetrack will be skiing at home tomorrow. If the BOM is saying snow to 700m in the NSW CTs then it will snow to 640m in VIC.
     
  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    The AXS r has thickness in the range of 5260m on friday for melbourne area. Seem to recall it snowing to sea level around 12 August 2005 with similar thickness.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ~5280 thickness around MEL area for Friday (Tassie 5260 for sure). All heights considered that puts freeze levels around ~800m IMO, so flurries down to 200-300 below that IMO (I now tend to agree CC).
    That said, I've never experienced snow at sea level in Aus so I can't truly say I know the conditions required.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    This from Australian Backcountry Skiing: The atmospheric thickness is the distance between air pressure of 1000 hPa and 500 hPa. Why is this useful? Cold air is more dense than warm air so the smaller the distance between 1000 hPa and 500 hPa the more dense (and colder) the air is above that location. In general, a thickness reading of approximately 5400 m corresponds with a freeze level at approximately 1400 m above sea level. A thickness reading of 5340 m corresponds with a freeze level of approximately 1000 m above sea level. A thickness of 5280m corresponds with a freeze level of approximately 600 m above sea level.
    So 5220m would equate to 200m freeze level and flurries or settling at sea level.
     
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  8. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Can't forget that moisture content also affects thickness as moist air is less dense, so thicker. So needs to be colder to be thinner.

    So low thickness of moist air is a very good combination.
     
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  9. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    I was at Falls that week, MAXIMUM of around -6 that day IRIC, easily driest Oz snow I've ever torn apart. Japan on the other hand, well.....
    If it snows to 600m, 400m or below, sheesh the quality will be dope up high in amongst the trees and wind blown stashes ;) IMOO :D
     
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    August 2nd last year we had sea level snow in southern Tassie. I posted the chart for it earlier in this thread, will dig it up and post again a little later.
     
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  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    The system in question from August 2nd last year.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    And cause this is the predictions thread...
    4am MSLP chart.
    [​IMG]

    Dat fetch. Dat pressure... 964!

    Tassie is getting some effing low level snow tomorrow morning.

    Terribly unfortunate that pissant 1015 high pressure cell has ****ed off into oblivion and allow that low to penetrate up around bass straight. Looks like we'll just have to settle for another 30cm or so...
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Snow porn right there. Pressure much lower will only mean greater condensation.
     
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  13. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Pretty much bang on in my thoughts also.

    Experience watching these in the past tells me that the super cold system never deliver massive dumps of 40-50cm+
    30-35 is about right IMO
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Yeah generally super cold means dryer in Aus, cause colder air holds less moisture or some such thing. But in this instance the pressure and thickness are super low so that'll help things along yeah?
     
  15. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    1. The multiplier is higher, so no longer 1:10, prob more like 1:12
    2. The infeed of tropical moisture.

    That axs r above is 50cm.
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    In what, 24-30hrs?
    I know that's what the model is saying but hard to imagine those numbers actually eventuating. And I'm simply talking vibe and the rarity of such snowfall in Aus. Perhaps at 2200m out on the Main range or down in SW Tassie, but mainland resort level I'm a long way from being convinced of those numbers.
    Of course this is just my modest relatively uneducated vibey opinion.
     
  17. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Much lower southerly fetch than last year's system above, with lower pressure and tropical moist feed from the northwest trough, its snow porn.
     
  18. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    that's just how I read the pretty picture bro...
     
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  19. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    And the 540 line in qld
     
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  20. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Thats really a question for the more experienced.

    I have just kind of noticed over the years that the super cold really low level systems never deliver massive amounts. Just usually about 1 foot of excellent quality snow.
     
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  21. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Yes I have noticed that also. Nothing wrong with a foot of dry snow, but there are indicators (above) that there is a fair bit more possible.
     
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  22. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    The High is also that much weaker.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yes, that is true. Generally colder = drier.
    In this case, much of the goods are delivered today and overnight before the real cold hits. IMO
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'm trying to think of the last really low level snow event. Perhaps August 2008, IIRC we had snow on the beaches at Kilcunda and SE Gippsland.
    In that case, it was pretty much a straight southerly blast though

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. PowWow

    PowWow Active Member

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    A lot of the moisture appears to be deflecting South towards Tassie as it crosses the coast near Mt Gambier. Could this reduce totals for NSW? Looks like it won't penetrate as far Nth.
     
  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Thats what the models were predicting. Have a look at the colour on todays chart. Its all parrallel to the west vic coast.
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  30. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Cant wait to see what it does to Tassie!
     
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  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I'll hopefully have some pics to post care of Old Chopps.
     
  32. Falls expat

    Falls expat Dedicated Member

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    Hmmm this system today and tonight has slowed down and maintains the W flow longer. There are also 4 embedded front/troughs in that cold air so good moisture. Models had taken this through faster bringing cold air from the S or SW but it looks now to be wrapping the cold air around the low. I would say there has to be a minimum of 20cm in the next 24hrs probably more over N resorts then Baw Baw gets some on Fri into Sat.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  34. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    Selwyn should be fully open by the weekend then.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I suspect access maybe an issue for the weekend if 2 feet (+drifts) occurs, that's a lot of snow on a lot of road at 1400m elevation!
     
    #635 POW_hungry, Jun 23, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2016
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 10:55 am EST on Thursday 23 June 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A cold front to the west will reach western Victoria this afternoon then cross central Victoria early in the evening and the east by Friday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 95 km/h are forecast for the North Central, Central, North East, South West, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts during Thursday. Alpine peaks above 1200 metres elevation are likely to get gusts to 110 km/h.

    Highest wind gusts today are 91km/h at Falls Creek and Mount Buller and 87km/h at Wilsons Promontory.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Hello Falls Ex, good to see you still around and we all love your expert input.

    Just wanted to ask, are you surprised with the results of this system so far given that earlier in the week your thoughts were that it wasn't looking that great?
     
  39. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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  40. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Advice to us at NSW SES is isolated falls of 80-120mm possible on the southern ranges and slopes. If that happens as snow, we could see the main range get a metre from this.
     
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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I dont think anyone was worried about how Thursday and Friday were going to pan out. There was some concern that the earlier days (Tues and Weds) would be warm due to unfavourable 850 and 500hpa temperatures that some of the models were predicting.

    If you thought today, tonight and tomorrow were going to be anything less than awesome I suggest looking at the weather is not for you.
     
  42. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I distinctly recall that there were a number of people who were questioning the 850 temps forecast by the models on Monday-Wednesday and whether it would be cold enough for snow below 1600-1700m and BOM were quietly confident that we would see snow above 1300-1400m during this period.......which we saw

    I also recall several people talking downgrades and that we would only be looking at max 20cm out of Thursday night/Friday.....
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not sure, where that's directed but 20-25cm MINIMUM for Friday was my call (on Monday). I still think on average across the resorts this is likely... I'd be cautious gloating just yet nothing for Friday has fallen yet.
     
  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I bet if Donza was still around he would have stuck with his Trademark 2 foot storm the whole way
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I did it for him.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Fair call Pow, it ain't Friday afternoon yet and anything could still happen.

    We likely won't know the end result until Saturday morning's snow reports come out.....

    It's certainly looking pretty damn tasty though now that we are 6-12 hours from impact?
     
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  47. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Was in Falls that week myself. The Maze and the Y's were close to the best I have seen them, quality wise. I remember driving into the Village to unload on the Sunday with only a few cm on the road and then having to dig the car out of the Upper Carpark the following weekend.
     
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  48. Nowada

    Nowada Well-Known Member

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    I totally did not see snow until this arvo. I am very happy about being wrong/blind.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
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  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    WOW. GFS was accurate 114 hrs out. Whats going on

    I think this actually upgraded since Friday last week, with more westerly air flow.

    114hrs
    [​IMG]

    18 hrs

    [​IMG]
     
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