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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.
Precipitation Total looks good too.
A bit of 528 -34 action. I like. Bring out the snorkel.
Telecrags arm !
Hopefully the AAO bounces back to something more normal by winter solstice. It's almost off-the-scale positive (as in bad for us) atm:
Best cold pulse I've seen for a while, fingers crossed.
What am I missing here? Is it me or have the models just gone from flip to flop because all I see is lots of clear snow.
Still looking ok on the 00Z GFS run. Perhaps a tad weaker.
Definitely a major downgrade on the latest GFS.
That's a significant downgrade in one model run.
Better at 192 hours.
I don't think we'll really know until the ECLs from Sunday/Monday play out. They've done a good job screwing promising systems so far.
Such a big shift in the model makes me want to hang back on this one. The ECL's don't screw up the snow, its just whats going on at the moment. It just we are getting lots of action but not much snow action.
When you're talking 192+ hours out, there's always a lot left to chance. It's not really seriously worth considering these until 168 hours out, but where would the fun be if that was the case
I think its funny that yr.no still has ridiculous amounts of snow from Tuesday 21st on (Perisher Valley). If its based on ec why is it still snow, or is it slow to update?
Yep it does look Ok. I got attached to the 00z run cause it had the moisture and 528 line coming together. Anything is a downgrade after that. .
The downgrades tend to wear you down a bit after a while though. There will obviously be a few more ups and downs before it plays out.
Attachment to an outcome wears me down. I always forget. . The progression still looks great.
ECL of 2005 saw heavy snow at Berridale....I was there
Exactly ECL can deliver huge amounts of rain or snow especially NSW
Really depends on the deepness of the Low and any cold air.
Thats it we will not know till we know where the ECL bombs
This is the fun part , the rollercoaster ride - then comes the business end of it when it starts to settle and take shape. The dream of a huge event is what its about.
ECLs can bear snow but really needs interaction with a cold pool. This ECL actually forms between a cradled high pressure cell and between fronts so is probably going to lack interaction/cold pool injection. EC/GFS have freeze levels =>2500m (552-558 dam) for Sun-Tues, so no chance of snow out of the ECL, it's the follow-up system on Wed/Thurs that is the real chance of bringing snow, if any.
And almost gone on Yr-No http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html
3 boobs. Nice. Reminds me of the 70s
Don't panick it will be back to being a 2 foot Storm tomorrow on yeh.no
Its gone sh1t. >
A bit of an old chart. 12 z Monday.
While the 21st-22nd looking weaker, 23rd-24th (on EC) looking significant. Seems to all be slipping back a day or two, just need to get this weekends ECL action over and done with.
EC Loves it. Plenty of cold air, with a deepening trough on the Friday along the great dividing range. Lacking alignment though.
EC is pretty darn good at picking these systems from a long way out.....definitely one to keep an eye on that's for sure.
Wouldn't be surprised if it disappeared off a few runs then suddenly re-appeared 4 days out....
Slightly off topic, but if you look back at the historical data, you'll find that in general, there are many years where a good dump arrives either at the end of June / start of July, it's a fair given in any season really......
Your waters too eh?
I'm pretty sure Jane said alpine snow Monday/Tuesday (on news last night)
Interestingly EC has the low over the weekend tracking over inland NSW (like AXS yesterday). GFS still has an ECL - and prefers the 22nd, with a weak pulse for the 24th IMO
dat hook. love da hooks. all da licks.
flop back to flip then flop, this is a good ride. it could be a total washout or biblical or somewhere in between. As CC has said the ECL has models all over the shop. when its run its path we shall have a better idea.
More flip flop but better then what we have seen so far.
Way too much variability at the moment to go all in.
Not going all in, to old to fall for that. Just nice to see something positive instead of the doom and gloom.
Yeah the surface mslp charts look really good. Its just the cold air is a bit lacking. Plenty of cool air though.
00Z GFS is right off this system.
Each afternoon they go off. Each morning back on. Will have a look tomorrow morning.
Yep, this mornings EC run. Lets see what the arvo says.
Yeah, a friend sent it through, only just had the opportunity to post.