Predictions Predictions - June 21-24th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Precipitation Total looks good too.

    Looks Cold
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A bit of 528 -34 action. I like. Bring out the snorkel.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Telecrags arm !
     
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  4. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  5. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Best cold pulse I've seen for a while, fingers crossed. crossed.
     
    #55 glengary, Jun 14, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2016
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  6. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    What am I missing here? Is it me or have the models just gone from flip to flop because all I see is lots of clear snow.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looking ok on the 00Z GFS run. Perhaps a tad weaker.
     
  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Definitely a major downgrade on the latest GFS.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That's a significant downgrade in one model run.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Better at 192 hours.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't think we'll really know until the ECLs from Sunday/Monday play out. They've done a good job screwing promising systems so far.
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Such a big shift in the model makes me want to hang back on this one. The ECL's don't screw up the snow, its just whats going on at the moment. It just we are getting lots of action but not much snow action.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    When you're talking 192+ hours out, there's always a lot left to chance. It's not really seriously worth considering these until 168 hours out, but where would the fun be if that was the case ;)
     
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  14. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    I think its funny that yr.no still has ridiculous amounts of snow from Tuesday 21st on (Perisher Valley). If its based on ec why is it still snow, or is it slow to update?
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yep it does look Ok. I got attached to the 00z run cause it had the moisture and 528 line coming together. Anything is a downgrade after that. LOL.
     
  16. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The downgrades tend to wear you down a bit after a while though. There will obviously be a few more ups and downs before it plays out.
     
    #66 PMG, Jun 14, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2016
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Attachment to an outcome wears me down. I always forget. LOL. The progression still looks great.
     
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  18. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    ECL of 2005 saw heavy snow at Berridale....I was there
     
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  19. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Exactly ECL can deliver huge amounts of rain or snow especially NSW
     
  20. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Really depends on the deepness of the Low and any cold air.
     
  21. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Thats it we will not know till we know where the ECL bombs
     
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  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This is the fun part , the rollercoaster ride - then comes the business end of it when it starts to settle and take shape. The dream of a huge event is what its about. ;)
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    juicy

     
    #73 Claude Cat, Jun 14, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2016
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECLs can bear snow but really needs interaction with a cold pool. This ECL actually forms between a cradled high pressure cell and between fronts so is probably going to lack interaction/cold pool injection. EC/GFS have freeze levels =>2500m (552-558 dam) for Sun-Tues, so no chance of snow out of the ECL, it's the follow-up system on Wed/Thurs that is the real chance of bringing snow, if any.
     
  25. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    3 boobs. Nice. Reminds me of the 70s
     
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  27. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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  28. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't panick it will be back to being a 2 foot Storm tomorrow on yeh.no
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its gone sh1t. LOL>
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A bit of an old chart. 12 z Monday.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    While the 21st-22nd looking weaker, 23rd-24th (on EC) looking significant. Seems to all be slipping back a day or two, just need to get this weekends ECL action over and done with.
    IMO
     
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  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Loves it. Plenty of cold air, with a deepening trough on the Friday along the great dividing range. Lacking alignment though.
     
  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC is pretty darn good at picking these systems from a long way out.....definitely one to keep an eye on that's for sure.

    Wouldn't be surprised if it disappeared off a few runs then suddenly re-appeared 4 days out....

    Slightly off topic, but if you look back at the historical data, you'll find that in general, there are many years where a good dump arrives either at the end of June / start of July, it's a fair given in any season really......
     
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  35. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Your waters too eh?

    I'm pretty sure Jane said alpine snow Monday/Tuesday (on news last night)
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  37. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interestingly EC has the low over the weekend tracking over inland NSW (like AXS yesterday). GFS still has an ECL - and prefers the 22nd, with a weak pulse for the 24th IMO

     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    dat hook. love da hooks. all da licks.
     
  40. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    flop back to flip then flop, this is a good ride. it could be a total washout or biblical or somewhere in between. As CC has said the ECL has models all over the shop. when its run its path we shall have a better idea.
     
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  41. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    More flip flop but better then what we have seen so far.
     
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Way too much variability at the moment to go all in.
     
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  43. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Not going all in, to old to fall for that. Just nice to see something positive instead of the doom and gloom.
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah the surface mslp charts look really good. Its just the cold air is a bit lacking. Plenty of cool air though.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Huh?
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00Z GFS is right off this system.
     
  47. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Each afternoon they go off. Each morning back on. Will have a look tomorrow morning.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep, this mornings EC run. Lets see what the arvo says.
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, a friend sent it through, only just had the opportunity to post.
     
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