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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.
The bit south of Melbourne (precipitation & cold pool) may move northward by 200 miles on the subsequent runs. Which should mean its game on, as far as the pre-frontal goes. And the bit south of the Bight might deliver some cold snow on top around the 23rd.
Would rather have Access G a bit on rather than GFS too.
Typically if I saw this chart on GFS I would be optimistic of a good dump. I think the Cold pool on GFS will return, otherwise there is definitely something fishy going on this year IMO>
22nd looks weaker again on EC as well.
But the 24th appears strong IMO
It's all sliding backwards in time.
I am not sure if that image you posted has updated, but with all due respect that chart doesn't get me any bit excited about a 'dump' - regardless of model or however many days out.
I am a little more interested with GFS somewhat half-in on a 23JUN. But it's sooo far out (+192hrs) and EC wants it a day later... It's all out of reach at this point.
GFS Has been half in/ fully in for the 23rd/24th for nearly a week now. If it's a fizzer I'm brushing them.
Until the next system at least.
yr.no is laying it on bigtime for the 24th. This will probably change between here and there though.
Yeah, I just don't take much notice of models 7+ days out. There is vague alignment between EC & GFS for mid-next week hence why I am leaning in.
I've been brushing them for years.
End of next week looks good. BOM seems to be convinced rain above 1800 will now be snow for the rets of the season, lots of moisture , cold air at 500mb and wind from the correct place , I see a series of fronts and a huge low in the middle of the Indian. What's a good name for the next system, must have a name.
Max (Merritt)...slipping away...
All I know is there is some significant weather now happening which is good but trying to predict 7 + days out is really only a guessing game.
The yr.no evening update just after your post is also looking good across the whole set of dates through to the 26th. Bit of everything. Bit less of the bad stuff if a northern pass of the dog that eventually turns into an ECL. There is hope on this flip.
Yes I like yr.no update, not much damage early on and a big finish. Pity it will change next update. I also note ECL appears to have little impact, so its not following EC model which still has it forming on Sunday?
EC (yr.no) can tend to underestimate rainfall in the hills IMO.
Thanks CC, They are predicting 23mm of rain til the 22nd then 55cm @ 10:1 up to 25th. Have to say a little more would be good as long as you mean precipitation and not just rainfall.
This has started to resemble the last system that didn't deliver (snow), so although its entertaining looking at the progression, I have no confidence in any of this happening as per above, but I'll remain optimistic.
Yes, it has a strong resemblance to the previous system.
Hmmm , not so...
Similar but the low is modelled to bomb more South and the pressures against the High are not so tight.
Fetch not so great either i.e last week was all but from the Equator.
Same feel but not the biz / intensity we copped last week.
Well certainly it doesn't appear the ECL will be nearly as strong or travel as far south as last weeks event.
But EC has a very strong southerly fetch, and it's a much colder event - at this stage.
But there are some similarities in that the ECL is affecting the following outcome.
What do we make of this, too which the BOM is also leaning, bold.
Looks like it was done off this morning's EC run IMO
EC 12Z run still looking ok, albeit a very swift system 23/24th.
GFS 12Z run has it peaking too late into the Tasman (24th).
AXS goes wack with a cut off low that looks like 2 feet of snow above 1900m...
Plenty of divergence between the controls but 12z control looks good.
That's actually fairly aligned for 216h I reckon
There's lots of potential in the whole half of this chart that's heading towards us (6 oclock to 12 oclock):
A few cut off areas which look interesting too. I reckon we have a good 10-14 day period coming up from the dates in this thread onwards.
Yr.no update is a big upgrade. 24mm rain followed by 90cm of snow. Its all starting to look plausible but so far out, so probably wont happen. This is at 1730 m Perisher Valley.
where should we be looking on that chart for the dates in this thread bro? Assume we're looking at 10pm?
Yup that's about right. Normally it's about 2 weeks from the bottom (sth america) to get to us, give or take a few days if it gets held up or pushed through.
Polar charts moving to 5 node pattern around these dates, supports your suggestion there might be some good action for the extended period, yeah?
Just a lot of unsettled conditions around that whole side of the globe, which look better than highs and calm conditions. It's a long way out, and they will weaken and hopefully strengthen back and forth.
Typically that chart can deliver good totals above 1700 m. Wandering cold pool. Its not a cold polar SW injection that you are looking for. Its not really a Perisher or Thredbo sort of dump.
Its a Main Range dump. This is not a resort forum is it.
And whats more, it looks even better this morning. The cold pool on Access G are looking the goods.
The Very Cold Pool below Perth looks exceptional. This is like wet snow followed by dry snow. We could be riding by this time next week. Both are required.
Looks deep, deep, cold! IMO
Down to sea level in Tasmania?
Wow West coast tassie watch out.
Looks pretty nice at this stage
GFS for the same time period.
If we could get some agreement on the models, I'd be much happier.
yep, looks that way.
This delivered sea level snow to Tassie last year, made for some epic images.
Good chance Old Chopps to will get snowed in actually. Love that low pressure!
Not quite. Firstly it's 216 hrs out, secondly GFS is off it. EC, all in on the 12Z run.
The Esembles (GFS) are a bit mixed bag anyway (CHOPPS posted), so i think GFS will fall back into line with ECMWF.
I just like the Tuesday event too.
It's been 5 nodes with a distinct split 3/2 since the wheel first chugged up. It's why i figure we may get a better than average SC depth because there is the possibility of 3 fronts firing up in a short period , at least once this winter.
Below sea level even
Without making it a pissing contest, you posted a MSLP chart with low precip plots, furthermore with a westerly flow (nothing with thickness layers) - that's all I am saying. This not something I get excited about.
The cold air and precip needs to come from somewhere
AXS massively on board and aligned with EC now for next Thursday/Friday.
BOM charts are updated in the forum link in real time. So if you looked at this post this morning it was already updated from what was posted last night, so thats why the moisture was like as it was.
My model observation is that the Tuesday event is already updated and its much Colder. I think that there is going to be some good snow action at the back end of the ECL. While every one else is more focused on the cold event on the Thursday.
IMO we need both events.
Furthermore the westerly flow is after an ECL. Its the progression of the air flow.
Given the data I would be more confident about Tuesday than Thursday as GFS is holding out.
Marginal events that get dumped on the the Main Range with less wind is my specialization.
The back end of the 4 Chart looks really Good IMO. The ECL falls underneath the new front arriving Monday night, pushing the front northward. It looks good for Tuesday.
Wishful thinking this far out, but it'd be nice... Temps look amazing and the best we've seen so far this year.
Hello GFS (00Z run)!
Amazing how GFS can look like the EC run 12 hours earlier ...