Predictions Predictions - June 21-24th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    :evil::evil::evil::fishing:
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The bit south of Melbourne (precipitation & cold pool) may move northward by 200 miles on the subsequent runs. Which should mean its game on, as far as the pre-frontal goes. And the bit south of the Bight might deliver some cold snow on top around the 23rd.

    Would rather have Access G a bit on rather than GFS too.
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Typically if I saw this chart on GFS I would be optimistic of a good dump. I think the Cold pool on GFS will return, otherwise there is definitely something fishy going on this year IMO>

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    22nd looks weaker again on EC as well.
    But the 24th appears strong IMO
    It's all sliding backwards in time.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #104 Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2016
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am not sure if that image you posted has updated, but with all due respect that chart doesn't get me any bit excited about a 'dump' - regardless of model or however many days out.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am a little more interested with GFS somewhat half-in on a 23JUN. But it's sooo far out (+192hrs) and EC wants it a day later... It's all out of reach at this point.
     
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  7. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Has been half in/ fully in for the 23rd/24th for nearly a week now. If it's a fizzer I'm brushing them.

    Until the next system at least. :p
     
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  8. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    yr.no is laying it on bigtime for the 24th. This will probably change between here and there though.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I just don't take much notice of models 7+ days out. There is vague alignment between EC & GFS for mid-next week hence why I am leaning in.
    I've been brushing them for years.;)
     
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  10. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    End of next week looks good. BOM seems to be convinced rain above 1800 will now be snow for the rets of the season, lots of moisture , cold air at 500mb and wind from the correct place , I see a series of fronts and a huge low in the middle of the Indian. What's a good name for the next system, must have a name.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    o_O
     
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  12. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Max (Merritt)...slipping away...
    All I know is there is some significant weather now happening which is good but trying to predict 7 + days out is really only a guessing game.
     
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  13. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The yr.no evening update just after your post is also looking good across the whole set of dates through to the 26th. Bit of everything. Bit less of the bad stuff if a northern pass of the dog that eventually turns into an ECL. There is hope on this flip.
     
  14. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Yes I like yr.no update, not much damage early on and a big finish. Pity it will change next update. I also note ECL appears to have little impact, so its not following EC model which still has it forming on Sunday?
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC (yr.no) can tend to underestimate rainfall in the hills IMO.
     
  16. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Thanks CC, They are predicting 23mm of rain til the 22nd then 55cm @ 10:1 up to 25th. Have to say a little more would be good as long as you mean precipitation and not just rainfall.
    This has started to resemble the last system that didn't deliver (snow), so although its entertaining looking at the progression, I have no confidence in any of this happening as per above, but I'll remain optimistic.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, it has a strong resemblance to the previous system.
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm , not so...
    Similar but the low is modelled to bomb more South and the pressures against the High are not so tight.
    Fetch not so great either i.e last week was all but from the Equator.
    Same feel but not the biz / intensity we copped last week.
    IMO.
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well certainly it doesn't appear the ECL will be nearly as strong or travel as far south as last weeks event.
    But EC has a very strong southerly fetch, and it's a much colder event - at this stage.
    But there are some similarities in that the ECL is affecting the following outcome.
    IMO
     
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  20. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like it was done off this morning's EC run IMO
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12Z run still looking ok, albeit a very swift system 23/24th.
    GFS 12Z run has it peaking too late into the Tasman (24th).
    AXS goes wack with a cut off low that looks like 2 feet of snow above 1900m...
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of divergence between the controls but 12z control looks good.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's actually fairly aligned for 216h I reckon
     
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  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's lots of potential in the whole half of this chart that's heading towards us (6 oclock to 12 oclock):
    [​IMG]
    A few cut off areas which look interesting too. I reckon we have a good 10-14 day period coming up from the dates in this thread onwards.
     
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  27. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Yr.no update is a big upgrade. 24mm rain followed by 90cm of snow. Its all starting to look plausible but so far out, so probably wont happen. This is at 1730 m Perisher Valley.
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    where should we be looking on that chart for the dates in this thread bro? Assume we're looking at 10pm?
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup that's about right. Normally it's about 2 weeks from the bottom (sth america) to get to us, give or take a few days if it gets held up or pushed through.
     
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  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Polar charts moving to 5 node pattern around these dates, supports your suggestion there might be some good action for the extended period, yeah?
     
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  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just a lot of unsettled conditions around that whole side of the globe, which look better than highs and calm conditions. It's a long way out, and they will weaken and hopefully strengthen back and forth.
     
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  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Typically that chart can deliver good totals above 1700 m. Wandering cold pool. Its not a cold polar SW injection that you are looking for. Its not really a Perisher or Thredbo sort of dump.

    Its a Main Range dump. This is not a resort forum is it.

    And whats more, it looks even better this morning. The cold pool on Access G are looking the goods.

    The Very Cold Pool below Perth looks exceptional. This is like wet snow followed by dry snow. We could be riding by this time next week. Both are required.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks deep, deep, cold! IMO

    [​IMG]

    Down to sea level in Tasmania?
     
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  34. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow West coast tassie watch out.

    Looks pretty nice at this stage
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS for the same time period.

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    If we could get some agreement on the models, I'd be much happier.
     
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  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep, looks that way.
    This delivered sea level snow to Tassie last year, made for some epic images.
    [​IMG]
    Good chance Old Chopps to will get snowed in actually. Love that low pressure!
     
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  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mehhhhhhhh
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not quite. Firstly it's 216 hrs out, secondly GFS is off it. EC, all in on the 12Z run.
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The Esembles (GFS) are a bit mixed bag anyway (CHOPPS posted), so i think GFS will fall back into line with ECMWF.

    I just like the Tuesday event too.
     
  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's been 5 nodes with a distinct split 3/2 since the wheel first chugged up. It's why i figure we may get a better than average SC depth because there is the possibility of 3 fronts firing up in a short period , at least once this winter.
     
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  42. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Below sea level even :eek::confused::D
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without making it a pissing contest, you posted a MSLP chart with low precip plots, furthermore with a westerly flow (nothing with thickness layers) - that's all I am saying. This not something I get excited about.
    The cold air and precip needs to come from somewhere
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS massively on board and aligned with EC now for next Thursday/Friday.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    BOM charts are updated in the forum link in real time. So if you looked at this post this morning it was already updated from what was posted last night, so thats why the moisture was like as it was.

    My model observation is that the Tuesday event is already updated and its much Colder. I think that there is going to be some good snow action at the back end of the ECL. While every one else is more focused on the cold event on the Thursday.

    IMO we need both events.

    Furthermore the westerly flow is after an ECL. Its the progression of the air flow.

    Given the data I would be more confident about Tuesday than Thursday as GFS is holding out.
     
    #145 7wombathead, Jun 16, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2016
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Marginal events that get dumped on the the Main Range with less wind is my specialization.
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The back end of the 4 Chart looks really Good IMO. The ECL falls underneath the new front arriving Monday night, pushing the front northward. It looks good for Tuesday.

    [​IMG]
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wishful thinking this far out, but it'd be nice... Temps look amazing and the best we've seen so far this year.
    [​IMG]
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hello GFS (00Z run)!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Amazing how GFS can look like the EC run 12 hours earlier ...
     
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  50. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks tasty