Predictions Predictions - June 21-24th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    falling into line..
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we're on the brink of being 'on' for a season starter now. Close alignment puts it in the 60-70% chance region IMO.
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    will be comfortable when it's on the BOM 4 dayer.
     
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  4. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yes could get a bit of low level snow as well ATM IMO
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From WZ:
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence my 30-40% of doubt!;)
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Bring back the snorkel at 528.

    If only it holds course. 204 hrs out is a long shot.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Tuesday Looks Really Good too at 132 hrs.
     
  10. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you accusing GFS of plagiarism ????
    If this occurs will this be tagged Telecrags fist ? or if its a smaller event Telecrags date ???
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Frothing on that one.
     
  13. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    If these falls come off on 23rd/24th do you "predict" that we'll be able to ski in resort on Sat and/or Sun 25th/26th, or if it comes off will it be base building and require more time/another fall?
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Both.falls in the 20-30cm range to below village level of Aus resorts is POSSIBLE next Thursday/Friday based on the current run. Will this change? Possibly, but I think it's got a 60-70% chance of happening.
     
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  15. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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  16. justride

    justride Hard Yards

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    Being a straight westerly may mean Buller sees some of that freezing rain until it cools sufficiently IMO
     
  17. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    :cheers:
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I could see this on the models this morning fwiw....
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pron
    Seriously.
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This (23-24th) ain't no straight westerly. That's a traditional cold blast. NW prefrontal swing SW as the low passes through bass straight. Everyone will do well out this if it happens has currently progged on the models.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The "hook" will bring it in from the N, NW too.
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've got to say the 21st might just surprise too. IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Northern resorts to do well early in the N/NW the Southern resorts to do well late in the SWly.
    Dat thickness tho.
     
  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Good chance of more than 20-30cm going off EC but have to wait and see on the next few runs before making that call....
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Off EC I see much, much more IMO.
    As it stands I can see 15cm on the 21st, 40 to 50cm on the 24th.
    Sadly I can only see it downgrading from here, it's pretty hard to improve on what it shows right now!
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2ft StormTM
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dat Tassie rain shadow. Look out Old Chopps.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nah, the hook will bring it around.

    I've got to say, when GFS goes all in, it really does go all in.
     
  30. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I am more optimistic.. Big weather the last 2 weeks contributing. 75-100cm 23-25th imvho
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I completely and wholeheartedly agree, it's a traditional cold outbreak, I just don't want to break hearts. I'd rather remain conservative this far out. That said, even the 25th looks ok but that's for another thread.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller and Baw Baw are likely to do very well out of this if the current run of SW flow comes off.
     
    #182 POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2016
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *snow-making
     
  34. Planks & Sticks

    Planks & Sticks One of Us

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    (I hope you guys don't mind me asking here, can have this post moved to the right place if needed)

    Is there a website where I can visit to learn more about reading those maps posted in this thread? Thanks in advance!
     
  35. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    Planks and Sticks, Weatherzone.com.au is best - use the standard not mobile site. The forum has good conversations, there is a tutorial if you search for it, and a range of charts and models to look at.
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is off its chops this morning. That's a worry. LOL
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah, is mint...
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has backed off a touch IMO. Not nearly as cold as yesterdays run, but still looks solid.
    GFS colder than it's 12Z yesterday - looking very solid
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS looking bullish.
    If there's one thing models all agree on it's plenty of moisture.
    [​IMG]
     
    #191 POW_hungry, Jun 17, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2016
  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Charts looking prime this morning
     
  43. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come on surely this thing needs a name ?
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's really cold and full of energy and there's not much in the way to stop it from rushing up to us:
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah all on board with this, to one extent or another. Defs season starter IMO.
     
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  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this stage to have such consistency across all the models its hard to disagree.
    Even Claude is Bullish. And when Claude is bullish you know its on.
     
  47. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No
     
  48. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok we have nominations of Telecrags Fist, Telecrags Date and No.. ( Thanks Chowder)
    How about Claudes Hook
     
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  49. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can we start another thread, maybe with a poll? so the predictions page isnt full of suggestions and we keep it on predictions only?
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You work in the media don't you?;)

    Bulk of the falls early morning Friday after a bit of pre-frontal perhaps.
    [​IMG]

    The way GFS has painted temps we could see very low level falls in Victoria by Friday evening. Mount Macedon etc.
    -34c @ 500mb uppers
    [​IMG]