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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2016.
falling into line..
I think we're on the brink of being 'on' for a season starter now. Close alignment puts it in the 60-70% chance region IMO.
will be comfortable when it's on the BOM 4 dayer.
Yes could get a bit of low level snow as well ATM IMO
Hence my 30-40% of doubt!
Bring back the snorkel at 528.
If only it holds course. 204 hrs out is a long shot.
Tuesday Looks Really Good too at 132 hrs.
Are you accusing GFS of plagiarism ????
If this occurs will this be tagged Telecrags fist ? or if its a smaller event Telecrags date ???
Frothing on that one.
If these falls come off on 23rd/24th do you "predict" that we'll be able to ski in resort on Sat and/or Sun 25th/26th, or if it comes off will it be base building and require more time/another fall?
Both.falls in the 20-30cm range to below village level of Aus resorts is POSSIBLE next Thursday/Friday based on the current run. Will this change? Possibly, but I think it's got a 60-70% chance of happening.
Being a straight westerly may mean Buller sees some of that freezing rain until it cools sufficiently IMO
I could see this on the models this morning fwiw....
This (23-24th) ain't no straight westerly. That's a traditional cold blast. NW prefrontal swing SW as the low passes through bass straight. Everyone will do well out this if it happens has currently progged on the models.
The "hook" will bring it in from the N, NW too.
I've got to say the 21st might just surprise too. IMO
Yep. Northern resorts to do well early in the N/NW the Southern resorts to do well late in the SWly.
Dat thickness tho.
Good chance of more than 20-30cm going off EC but have to wait and see on the next few runs before making that call....
Off EC I see much, much more IMO.
As it stands I can see 15cm on the 21st, 40 to 50cm on the 24th.
Sadly I can only see it downgrading from here, it's pretty hard to improve on what it shows right now!
Dat Tassie rain shadow. Look out Old Chopps.
Nah, the hook will bring it around.
I've got to say, when GFS goes all in, it really does go all in.
I am more optimistic.. Big weather the last 2 weeks contributing. 75-100cm 23-25th imvho
I completely and wholeheartedly agree, it's a traditional cold outbreak, I just don't want to break hearts. I'd rather remain conservative this far out. That said, even the 25th looks ok but that's for another thread.
Buller and Baw Baw are likely to do very well out of this if the current run of SW flow comes off.
(I hope you guys don't mind me asking here, can have this post moved to the right place if needed)
Is there a website where I can visit to learn more about reading those maps posted in this thread? Thanks in advance!
Planks and Sticks, Weatherzone.com.au is best - use the standard not mobile site. The forum has good conversations, there is a tutorial if you search for it, and a range of charts and models to look at.
GFS is off its chops this morning. That's a worry.
yeah, is mint...
EC has backed off a touch IMO. Not nearly as cold as yesterdays run, but still looks solid.
GFS colder than it's 12Z yesterday - looking very solid
AXS looking bullish.
If there's one thing models all agree on it's plenty of moisture.
Charts looking prime this morning
Come on surely this thing needs a name ?
It's really cold and full of energy and there's not much in the way to stop it from rushing up to us:
Yeah all on board with this, to one extent or another. Defs season starter IMO.
At this stage to have such consistency across all the models its hard to disagree.
Even Claude is Bullish. And when Claude is bullish you know its on.
Ok we have nominations of Telecrags Fist, Telecrags Date and No.. ( Thanks Chowder)
How about Claudes Hook
Can we start another thread, maybe with a poll? so the predictions page isnt full of suggestions and we keep it on predictions only?
You work in the media don't you?
Bulk of the falls early morning Friday after a bit of pre-frontal perhaps.
The way GFS has painted temps we could see very low level falls in Victoria by Friday evening. Mount Macedon etc.
-34c @ 500mb uppers